Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Counteroffensive Analysis #2, & Readers' Comments
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Table of Contents 📖
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"When you don't have a clear objective, it's very difficult to develop and implement effective policy."
Hello Team!
Jonathan revisits the topic from his earlier extra video about the success or failure of Ukraine's counteroffensive. He wants to provide additional analysis and insights to give viewers a greater understanding of the situation.
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Lack of Air Support
- Ukraine lacks air support and superiority, making their counteroffensive much more difficult
- NATO expected Ukraine to conduct manoeuvres they would never attempt without air supremacy
- The airspace over Ukraine remains contested, with Russia having the advantage
Interview with General Ben Hodges
- In an interview with the Kyiv Post, General Ben Hodges criticizes the White House for lacking a clear objective in Ukraine
- He argues that "we are with Ukraine as long as it takes" is a meaningless feel-good statement
- The US has stopped short of clearly identifying the purpose and objective of supporting Ukraine
- Gen. Hodges believes the end state should be Russia's defeat and ejection to the 1991 borders, as the Ukrainians have stated
- Without a clear objective, the US makes incremental decisions about what to provide Ukraine
- The US needs to commit to Ukraine winning and deliver what's necessary for victory, not just survival
Viewer Comments
Andy Glastonbury:
- Ukraine succeeded in stopping the Russian advance but was less successful in regaining territory with minimal casualties
- Expectations determine whether the counteroffensive is viewed as a success or failure
- If the goal was to gain time, attrite Russian forces, and acquire better weapons, it succeeded
Frank van der Stann:
- Frontline Ukrainian troops report that attacking resulted in high losses with little gain, impacting morale
- Lack of promised weapons and equipment is chipping away at their belief in victory
Andrew France:
- Strategic ambiguity has been fundamental to US policy but should not be mistaken for lack of planning
- Piecemeal supply of arms suggests the US is in it for as long as it takes to destroy Russia's offensive capability, not necessarily for Ukraine to liberate all territory
- The "deep state" (DoD, State Dept, CIA) will continue supporting Ukraine even if Congress has to catch up on funding
US Politics and Impact on Ukraine
- The House of Representatives operates on 2-year election cycles, focusing on domestic issues to get re-elected in the 2nd year
- The Senate has a longer-term view, more conscious of foreign affairs and international risks
- The "deep state" will not allow Ukraine to be defeated and can continue support on a modest scale without the House
- Public attention will be on the upcoming election and domestic issues like Trump's legal cases, abortion, immigration, etc.
- Democrats will focus on making Republicans look bad and turning out votes to win the Presidency and Congressional majorities
- The Colorado court case on whether Trump is ineligible to run is as critical to Ukraine's future as continued arms supplies
Wrap Up
Jonathan doesn't normally do two extra videos in a day but felt it was important to revisit this subject as there was more to say. He appreciates the support from his viewers and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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