Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, Loss Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
"You don't need British psychiatrists, psychologists, to convince Ukrainians to hate Russians. You don't need to do it. I've been out there. I've spoken to Ukrainians. They do pretty well on their own with hating the Russians without us having to go, oh, do you know what, guys? We're going to train you on how to hate Russians. They'll be like, dude, already done."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:01⏩
Jonathan starts the video by expressing his dismay at Donald Trump's praise of Viktor Orban, remarking on how disheartening it is that a prominent political figure would idolise an authoritarian. He welcomes viewers to his Ukraine war news update for 9th March 2024.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff - Russian Losses
🎦 01:01-02:53⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses, noting some "phenomenal" statistics. These include the loss of 850 personnel, 6 tanks, 25 armoured personnel vehicles (APVs), a massive 53 artillery systems, 3 anti-aircraft warfare systems and 85 vehicles and fuel tanks. This last figure marks a new record high, likely reflecting the frequent targeting of light vehicles and SUVs. The high numbers particularly in artillery, are attributed to Russia's push for territorial gains before the upcoming Presidential elections.
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Oryx - Russian Equipment Losses & Ukrainian MiG-29 Loss
🎦 02:53-08:19⏩
Jonathan references Oryx, an open-source intelligence defence analysis website, for visually confirmed Russian losses, noting a loss ratio of seven to one in the Avdiivka area. He highlights the reliability of these figures due to their visual verification. The loss of a Ukrainian MiG-29 is investigated using Telegram and it transpires that, sadly, the plane was hit by Ukrainian air defence, with the pilot unable to eject. In addition, the Ukrainians also lost an ST-68UM radar, a damaged Archer howitzer and an RM70 Vampire. Jonathan discusses the volume of sniper footage available online before reminding viewers that, whilst this is war, the human cost for both sides is immense.
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Impact of MRLs & Aviation Strikes
🎦 08:19-31:53⏩
Jonathan analyses footage of MRL (multiple launch rocket system) strikes, emphasizing the impact of their wide blast radius, and acknowledges the mapping efforts of "Gik" (JR) in visually representing these strikes. Jonathan explains that, while individually inaccurate, MRL barrages are effective for suppressing areas and targeting Ukrainian fortifications and trench lines. He expresses concern over Russia's effective use of aviation strikes, noting their increased precision in targeting fortifications and urban environments. The use of FAB (Fuel Air Bomb) munitions, capable of significant damage even with indirect hits, is a particular concern for Jonathan.
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Russian S-300 Loss (Lost Armour)
🎦 31:53-33:09⏩
Jonathan draws attention to footage from "Lost Armour" (a pro-Russian website that tracks both sides equipment losses and gains - like a Russian version of Oryx), showing the destruction of a Ukrainian S-300 air defence system by a Russian Iskander missile. The attack reportedly occurred west of Prokhorovsk, in the Avdiivka region. He speculates that it was likely a stationary target, as air defence systems tend to be less mobile than systems like HIMARS.
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Ukraine Downs 12 out of 15 Shahed Drones
🎦 33:09-35:59⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine successfully shot down 12 out of 15 Shahed drones launched by Russia but expresses concern about the three that got through, hitting targets such as an industrial enterprise in Dnipro and residential buildings in Kherson. He condemns these attacks on civilian infrastructure, labeling them as acts of terrorism aimed at demoralizing the population. Jonathan goes on to mention an explosion in Kryvyi Rih, Zelenskyy's home city, although its origin remains unclear.
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Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Territory
🎦 35:59-46:30⏩
Jonathan discusses the increasing frequency of Ukrainian drone strikes inside Russia, with the previous night seeing a surge in activity. Russia claims to have shot down 47 drones across Belgorod, Kursk, Volgograd, and Rostov but the actual number that got through remains uncertain. Footage confirms explosions in Kursk and the downing of a drone in Volgograd. Significantly, Taganrog was targeted, with a major explosion at the Beriev aircraft maintenance plant. Jonathan highlights the effectiveness of these strikes, especially given that Taganrog houses important military assets, including A-50 AWACS radar planes. Ukrainian drone production, seemingly on par with Russia's, is a concern for Russia. Jonathan speculates that Ukraine might be exploiting gaps in Russia's air defence network by using unpredictable flight paths, similar to tactics employed by Russia in Ukraine.
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Ukrainian Government Supports Local Agricultural Machinery
🎦 46:30-47:58⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian government has allocated funds to partially compensate farmers who choose to buy domestically produced agricultural machinery. He sees this as a way to stimulate the Ukrainian economy, with the added benefit of potentially reducing reliance on imports.
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34 Detained Trying to Escape to Romania
🎦 47:58-48:05⏩
Jonathan discusses the apprehension of 34 individuals found crammed inside a minibus attempting to cross the border into Romania. He reveals that each person had paid €10,000 in an attempt to avoid mobilisation.
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Dara Massicot (RAND Corporation) - Ukraine's Need for Military Assistance
🎦 48:05-49:54⏩
Jonathan references analysis by Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, who emphasizes the urgent need for increased Western military assistance to Ukraine. He points out that Ukraine's smaller population and industrial base limit its ability to sustain the war effort independently, particularly given Russia's recent mobilisation efforts. Massicot argues that the West needs to acknowledge the ongoing threat posed by Russia and act decisively to prevent further Ukrainian losses.
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Railway being Built from Taganrog to Mariupol
🎦 49:54-51:43⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the construction of a new railway line by Russia connecting Taganrog to Mariupol, intended to provide an alternative supply route to Crimea, bypassing the vulnerable Kerch Strait Bridge. Satellite imagery suggests the project is nearing completion and Jonathan predicts Ukraine will likely target key bridges once the line is operational. He cautions against targeting the tracks directly, deeming it a less effective use of resources.
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Russian Propaganda - POW Claims British Psychologists Instilled Hatred
🎦 51:43-53:16⏩
Jonathan criticizes a Russian propaganda piece featuring a Ukrainian prisoner of war who claims to have undergone psychological training by British operatives to instill hatred towards Russian soldiers. He dismisses the claim as absurd, arguing that Ukrainians have ample reason to harbour animosity towards Russia given the ongoing conflict and highlighting the Kremlin's tactic of blaming the UK for significant events in the war.
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Alexei Navalny Death & Valery Chaly's "Unfit for Service"
🎦 53:16-54:32⏩
Jonathan mentions that a multi-country prisoner exchange involving Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, potentially securing his release, was underway before his death. This exchange reportedly involved Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich. Jonathan then brings up the recent revelation that former Ukrainian ambassador to the UK, Valery Chaly, was deemed unfit for military service by a medical commission prior to his appointment, prompting speculation about the nature of his condition.
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Wrap Up
🎦 54:32-54:32⏩
Jonathan concludes the video.
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