US Politics Election Extra: Harris - Trump Showdown Update

"The choice [of J.D. Vance as VP] may be one of the best things he [Trump] ever did for Democrats."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-01:13⏩

Jonathan introduces this US politics election special, noting he doesn't always do these daily updates but has been doing them since the news of Biden stepping back. He states that he is coming at this from a biased point of view, wanting the Democrats to win not just because it would be better for Ukraine, but because of his views on domestic issues such as the environment, democracy, infrastructure, welfare state and reproductive rights. He acknowledges that he has a selection bias towards information that he will be presenting.

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Harris Campaign Momentum

🎦 01:13-03:43⏩

Jonathan's general assessment is that the Harris campaign is gaining momentum, which is reflected in the polls, particularly among certain demographics, giving her a serious chance of winning. He discusses how polls may underestimate Democratic support, especially younger voters, who are less likely to respond to polls and have landlines. He believes that the polls accurately reflect a shift in key demographics and independents, fueled by the Harris campaign's online presence. This online presence has been mobilised strategically and organically, through memes and social media trends, with the Democrats likely capitalising on this.

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Republican Attack Ads

🎦 03:43-05:53⏩

Jonathan believes that the Republicans are struggling to counter the Harris campaign's momentum and are doubling down on attack ads. He discusses how Harris has effectively dealt with criticisms, such as being criticised for laughing, by owning those criticisms and turning them into a positive. He believes the Republicans are focusing their attacks on policy divisions, such as immigration and her record as a prosecutor. He mentions the infighting within the Republican ecosystem, with figures like Peter Navarro and Ann Coulter criticising each other, which he believes is damaging to their messaging.

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Electoral College Explained

🎦 05:53-08:14⏩

Jonathan explains the US Electoral College system to international viewers, highlighting how the candidate with the most popular votes does not automatically win the presidency. He illustrates this using the 2022 election, explaining that votes need to be concentrated in certain states to secure more Electoral College votes. He emphasises how winning states with high populations, such as California, can secure a significant number of votes.

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Harris's Path to Victory

🎦 08:14-09:53⏩

Jonathan discusses how Harris's appeal to demographics such as women, Latino voters, black voters, people of colour, and young people, has altered the electoral landscape. He believes that she has a strong chance of winning Sunbelt states like Arizona, New Mexico, Georgia, and potentially North Carolina. He mentions the possibility of Texas becoming a purple state and the high registration rates there, particularly among young voters. He concludes that Harris now has multiple pathways to victory, beyond the narrow path Biden faced, which required winning Great Lakes states and staying close to the 270 electoral vote threshold.

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Trump Supporters Reject Harris Win

🎦 09:53-11:47⏩

Jonathan discusses the concerning trend of Trump supporters rejecting a Harris win, citing a Joe Walsh statement and MSNBC focus group findings. He highlights how Trump supporters are unable to conceive of a Harris victory without believing it is due to cheating. He argues that this is dangerous and an assault on democracy, highlighting the un-American nature of this sentiment. He connects this to the 6th January insurrection and the potential for similar events if Trump continues to spread this rhetoric.

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"Plaid Shirt Guy" Meme

🎦 11:47-14:54⏩

Jonathan shares a humorous anecdote about a "plaid shirt guy" who was selected to stand behind Trump at a rally, but visibly mocked the president during his speech. He discusses how this became a viral moment, with the man being replaced by two more enthusiastic supporters. He highlights the ironic nature of the situation, with Trump supporters being outraged by the man's mocking, while they themselves have embraced similar behaviour.

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Harris Campaign Fundraising

🎦 14:54-17:28⏩

Jonathan highlights the massive fundraising success of the Harris campaign, comparing it to Obama's 2012 campaign. He notes that Harris raised $200 million in a single week, a substantial amount that has fuelled a "snowball effect" of increased support and volunteerism. He explains how fundraising success can lead to a self-perpetuating cycle of increased excitement, funding, and volunteerism, which can negatively affect the opposition campaign.

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Former Justice Department Officials Endorse Harris

🎦 17:28-20:34⏩

Jonathan discusses a letter from 40 former Justice Department officials under both Republican and Democratic presidents endorsing Harris, highlighting the significance of this support. He explains that this support is particularly important against Trump's attempts to undermine democratic institutions and his agenda of stacking the judicial system.

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Trump's Campaign Approach

🎦 20:34-24:12⏩

Jonathan discusses Trump's campaign approach against Harris, focusing on the use of language and how it reveals his thinking. He uses the example of his parents' reaction to their new black neighbours, noting the use of the word "actually" to suggest a surprise that these people are nice, revealing underlying racism. He believes that Trump's campaign rhetoric reflects similar subconscious biases, citing Trump's statement about Harris not being "the first female president," and using the word "especially" before female, suggesting he views women as inherently less qualified.

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Harris's Laughing & Trump's Lack of Humour

🎦 24:12-25:35⏩

Jonathan discusses Trump's criticisms of Harris's laughter, contrasting it with his own lack of humour. He believes that Harris has effectively owned her laughter, using it to her advantage. He highlights the contrast between Harris's laughter and Trump's seriousness, which he attributes to Trump's narcissism and lack of joie de vivre. He shares a humorous meme about Harris, contrasting it with Trump's "Make America Great Again" slogan and suggesting she is "Make America Laugh Again." He also discusses the role of mirror neurons in laughter and its ability to evoke empathy.

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Techno-Fascism in Silicon Valley

🎦 26:29-32:11⏩

Jonathan discusses the concerning trend of techno-fascism in Silicon Valley, citing the support of tech figures like Peter Thiel, Mark Andreessen, and Elon Musk for Trump. He explains that these figures believe in replacing democracy with rule by tech elites and argues that this is a dangerous trend. He highlights Thiel's outspoken opposition to democracy and his belief that wealth equates to superiority. He discusses the influence of these tech figures and their support for figures like J.D. Vance, who has become Trump's running mate.

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Heidi Kuda's Byline Times Article

🎦 32:11-35:48⏩

Jonathan highlights an article by Heidi Kuda in the Byline Times, titled "Fighting Technofascism on the Virtual Battlefield," which discusses how tech figures like Peter Thiel and Elon Musk are attempting to influence the election. He highlights Thiel's South African roots and his connection to Rumble, a right-wing YouTube alternative platform. He discusses Musk's use of Twitter to spread disinformation and the platform's role in previous elections. He mentions a study by the Council for National Policy that found Twitter influenced the 2016 election.

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Epistemic Crisis and Disinformation

🎦 35:48-37:55⏩

Jonathan discusses the current "epistemic crisis," where it is difficult to discern truth from falsehood. He argues that tech figures like Musk are contributing to this crisis by promoting misinformation and claiming to be free speech absolutists while simultaneously censoring dissenting voices. He believes that these tech figures are undermining democracy by rejecting the messy nature of public discourse and promoting the idea of elite rule.

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Silicon Valley's Radicalization

🎦 37:55-39:22⏩

Jonathan discusses the radicalization of certain Silicon Valley figures, who believe they are creating the future of the human race and see criticism of their companies as an attack on their mission. He highlights their belief that the tech industry should be free from regulation and their perception of any opposition as a conspiracy against them. He connects this to the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the belief that it was a conspiracy.

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Tech Companies and the Deep State

🎦 39:22-40:12⏩

Jonathan argues that tech companies see Trump as the solution to their concerns, believing he will protect them from regulation and the SEC investigation into Musk's purchase of Twitter. He explains that these figures believe they should be able to control the future of American society and see Trump as an ally in this endeavour. He also draws a parallel between these tech figures and free market economists who believe corporations should dictate society, ignoring the negative externalities of their actions.

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Techno-Fascism and Regulation

🎦 40:12-42:02⏩

Jonathan argues that the Democrats are fighting to regulate tech companies for moral reasons, protecting people from the negative consequences of unchecked power. He contrasts this with Trump's promise of deregulation, which he believes would lead to chaos and further empower tech billionaires like Musk and Thiel. He reiterates the seriousness of the situation, highlighting the undemocratic nature of tech billionaires wielding power without being elected.

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Musk Shares Manipulated Video

🎦 42:02-43:46⏩

Jonathan discusses Elon Musk's sharing of a manipulated video of Kamala Harris, which was altered to make it appear as if she made disparaging comments about Biden and claimed to be the "ultimate diversity hire." He highlights the violation of Musk's own Twitter policies against sharing misleading content. He also highlights how this demonstrates Musk's willingness to break his own rules in service of his political agenda, further illustrating his disregard for democratic norms.

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Biden Announces Supreme Court Reforms

🎦 44:07-46:13⏩

Jonathan discusses Biden's announcement of major Supreme Court reforms, which he believes are good news in light of the potential for a Trump-stacked court. He explains how a court stacked in favour of one side could undermine democracy, citing the case of Justice Clarence Thomas, who he believes should have been recused from many decisions due to his connections to Russia and the Trump campaign. He outlines Biden's proposed reforms, including removing presidential immunity from prosecution, term limits for Supreme Court justices, and a binding code of conduct for the court.

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Harris's Favorability Ratings

🎦 46:13-48:10⏩

Jonathan discusses Harris's rising favorability ratings, citing an ABC News/Ipsos poll that shows an 8-point increase in her favourability rating. He also mentions a new HarrisX poll that shows Harris leading Trump by 12 points among suburban women. He highlights the significance of these polls, demonstrating Harris's momentum and the decline in Trump's support.

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Good Press Cycle and Snowball Effect

🎦 48:10-49:10⏩

Jonathan discusses the "good press cycle" and its contribution to the snowball effect in campaigns. He argues that positive press coverage, fuelled by good poll numbers and favorability ratings, can further boost support and momentum. This in turn leads to increased donations, volunteerism, and positive news coverage, creating a positive feedback loop that benefits the campaign.

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Republican Impediments to Harris's Nomination

🎦 49:10-49:38⏩

Jonathan discusses the Republican attempts to create legal impediments to Harris's nomination, highlighting efforts to bring cases against her campaign. He mentions the close polling numbers in key battleground states, including Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Michigan, suggesting that Harris has a strong chance of winning those states.

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Taxing Childless People

🎦 49:59-50:47⏩

Jonathan shares a humorous anecdote about Mussolini's policy of taxing bachelors, connecting this to current discussions about tax policy. He argues that tax policy should reward desirable behaviours, such as having children, and suggests taxing childless individuals more. He also mentions the ongoing "childless cat lady" stereotype and its prevalence in political discourse.

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Anti-J.D. Vance Sentiment on Social Media

🎦 50:47-54:11⏩

Jonathan highlights the growing anti-J.D. Vance sentiment on social media, citing a TikTok video critical of his nomination. He discusses how this type of content is difficult for the Trump campaign to counter and suggests it could contribute to a negative snowball effect for Vance's campaign. He also shares a video that mocks Vance's political views and his association with childless cat ladies, highlighting how this type of content is damaging to his reputation.

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JD Vance's Damaged Goods

🎦 54:11-54:56⏩

Jonathan states that Vance is now seen as "damaged goods," highlighting how he is facing negative press and social media backlash. He mentions the growing Republican sentiment that Vance could be replaced on the ticket, particularly after his recent gaffes. He also points to Harris's strong poll numbers among suburban women, suggesting that Vance's image is hurting the Trump ticket.

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Democrats' "Weird" Attack Line

🎦 54:56-56:48⏩

Jonathan discusses the Democrats' new attack line against Trump and Vance, which focuses on their perceived "weirdness." He explains how Democrats are using this to highlight the absurdity of their policies and rhetoric, particularly Vance's views on education and freedom. He also highlights Vance's recent remarks about racism and Diet Mountain Dew, which he believes further reinforces this perception.

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Vance's "Extreme" Behaviour

🎦 56:48-57:37⏩

Jonathan discusses how Vance's erratic behaviour is alienating even Trump supporters. He believes that Trump is likely questioning his choice of Vance, as he appears more extreme and erratic than Trump himself. He suggests that Vance's behaviour is a gift to the Democrats, who are using it to exploit the growing divisions within the Republican party.

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Campaign Themes and Key Issues

🎦 57:37-57:48⏩

Jonathan summarises the main themes of the election campaign, highlighting the Democrats' focus on healthcare and abortion rights in response to the repeal of Roe v Wade. He also mentions the Republicans' emphasis on immigration, particularly mass deportation policies.

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Wrap Up

🎦 57:48-57:57⏩

Jonathan concludes the video, thanking viewers and promising more "useful nuggets" in upcoming videos.

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