Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"Don't be, it's called anchor bias. When you bias thoughts by anchoring at a particular point by giving an arbitrary number, you do that when you're trying to sell a house or buy a house, sell anything, buy anything."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:29⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a second installment focusing on military aid in the Ukraine War. He apologizes that due to time constraints, he won't be able to cover the geopolitical segment.
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Ukraine receives two new air defense systems
🎦 00:30-02:37⏩
Jonathan discusses President Zelensky's announcement that Ukraine has received two additional air defense systems, likely Patriot systems. Jonathan notes the significance of this development, as it will bolster Ukraine's ability to counter Russian air attacks. He speculates that these systems will be deployed more frequently on the frontlines, potentially leading to a decrease in Russian air activity in those areas.
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EU to fall short of 1 million artillery shell goal - but don't focus on the number
🎦 02:37-05:51⏩
Jonathan addresses the EU's announcement of falling short of its goal to provide Ukraine with one million artillery shells by March 2024. While acknowledging the shortfall, Jonathan cautions against focusing solely on the numerical target. He argues that the EU's efforts to ramp up shell production are commendable and shouldn't be overshadowed by the missed target. Jonathan emphasizes the importance of recognizing the EU's progress and avoiding "anchor bias," which leads to judging success solely based on an initial, arbitrary number.
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Czech Republic: Source shells outside the EU
🎦 05:51-07:55⏩
Jonathan discusses the Czech Republic's proposal to the EU to procure artillery shells from sources outside the bloc. He highlights a Politico report stating that the Czech Republic has identified 450,000 155mm shells available for purchase, potentially enabling the EU to reach its one-million shell target by March. Jonathan delves into the economic implications, noting the EU's preference for internal production to bolster its own economies. He presents the Czech Republic's perspective, which prioritizes the urgency of supplying Ukraine over regional economic benefits.
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EU ammunition production increasing significantly
🎦 07:55-12:31⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the EU's long-term plans for ammunition production, citing reports that the bloc aims to reach a capacity of 1.4 million shells in 2024 and 2 million per year in 2025. He discusses a conversation from Andrew Perpetua's live stream featuring CJ, an expert on ammunition production. Jonathan agrees with CJ's optimistic outlook on European production, believing they'll likely meet or come close to their targets. Jonathan counters criticism from a viewer regarding UK production, citing evidence that the UK has supplied 300,000 shells and is increasing production eightfold. Jonathan speculates that the UK alone may match Russia's production levels in the future. He believes Europe as a whole could potentially surpass Russia's output, particularly with the United States' contribution.
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Russia switching to TNT for shells
🎦 12:31-14:38⏩
Jonathan delves into a discussion about Russia's reported shift towards using TNT in its artillery shells. He acknowledges uncertainty surrounding the significance of this development but speculates that it could indicate a decline in Russian production quality and a potential advantage for Ukraine.
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US considering procuring Turkish ammunition for Ukraine
🎦 14:38-15:12⏩
Jonathan discusses a report suggesting the United States is exploring the possibility of procuring 155mm ammunition from Turkey for Ukraine. He notes that while the financing remains unclear, this potential deal underscores Turkey's role as a significant supplier of 155mm rounds, including DPICM cluster munitions.
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Military Aid Updates from Lithuania, Estonia, and Bulgaria
🎦 15:12-16:56⏩
Jonathan provides a rundown of military aid contributions:
- Lithuania: Thousands of shells for Carl Gustaf anti-tank grenade launchers and RAISE1 remote detonation systems.
- Estonia: Javelin anti-tank missiles and other military equipment, marking nearly 500 million euros in aid since 2022, equivalent to 1.4% of Estonia's GDP.
- Bulgaria: Commenced the delivery of 100 BTR-60 APCs to Ukraine.
Jonathan praises Estonia's significant contribution relative to its GDP. He emphasizes the need to acknowledge the efforts of smaller nations alongside larger contributors like the United States.
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Ukraine's impressive drone production
🎦 16:56-19:31⏩
Jonathan highlights the substantial contribution of Ukrainian citizens to their country's defense, particularly in drone production. He references images of a basement filled with drones being assembled, illustrating the extent of grassroots manufacturing efforts. He points out that this localized production is likely underrepresented in official statistics and credits ordinary Ukrainians, even housewives, for their commitment to supporting the war effort. He cites The Wall Street Journal's report indicating Ukraine's aim to produce one million FPV drones in 2024, utilizing a decentralized production model to mitigate the impact of potential Russian strikes.
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Ukraine simplifies investment process to boost production
🎦 19:31-20:22⏩
Jonathan discusses the Ukrainian government's efforts to streamline state support for large investment projects. He cites Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal's statement indicating a willingness from Ukrainian and foreign businesses to invest over 12 million euros, create jobs, and receive government support. Jonathan highlights the simplification of investment procedures, including relaxed requirements for economic analysis and applicant financial capacity, as a positive step towards fostering collaboration between the public and private sectors. He sees these measures as crucial for bolstering Ukraine's armed forces and ensuring the nation's continued functionality.
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Canada to send CRV7 rockets to Ukraine
🎦 20:22-21:07⏩
Jonathan reports that Canada is preparing to transfer CRV7 air-to-surface missiles to Ukraine. These missiles, originally slated for disposal, are primarily from the 1970s and 1980s, with only about 8,000 out of the 83,303 available missiles equipped with warheads. Despite their age and limited number of warheads, Jonathan believes these rockets will still be a valuable asset to Ukraine's military capabilities.
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US imposes new sanctions on Iranian missile and drone programme
🎦 21:07-21:31⏩
Jonathan concludes the military aid segment by reporting on the United States' imposition of sanctions targeting Iran's missile and drone programs. He explains that these sanctions specifically target entities in Iran and Hong Kong for their role in supplying materials to Iranian military organizations. Jonathan highlights that these actions reflect a broader effort to curtail Iran's military support activities, including supplying equipment to groups in the Middle East and, significantly, their involvement in Ukraine.
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Wrap up
🎦 21:31-21:43⏩
Jonathan signs off, expressing uncertainty about producing the geopolitical video that night but encourages viewers to check his channel for updates.
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