Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"If I was cheering for Russia, I would be really depressed at the moment because they have been entirely ineffective."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:26⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to the daily frontline update. He reminds viewers to check the map key for clarification if needed.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Overview of Frontline Stalemate

🎦 00:26-01:47⏩

Jonathan observes that the frontline has been incredibly static for the past few days. This could be temporary due to the holiday period, but he suggests it indicates a culmination in Russia's offensive capabilities following the Ukrainian counteroffensive. He stresses that the cost of recent Russian advances in areas like Avdiivka, Kupyansk, Krinkky, Novomokrivka, and Bakhmut has likely been unsustainable.

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Analysis of Russian Losses

🎦 01:47-02:45⏩

Referencing data analysis from the previous day, Jonathan emphasizes the heavy personnel and equipment losses Russia has incurred during their offensive pushes in recent months. He believes these losses, coupled with a lack of tactical innovation, are severely limiting Russia’s ability to maintain momentum and launch further offensives.

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Northeast Frontline: Kupiansk and Svatove

🎦 02:45-04:37⏩

Jonathan highlights the lack of movement on the northeastern front. He notes a lack of updates from the ISW for January 1st. Russian attempts to advance on Sinkivka have failed, resulting in heavy losses. Jonathan speculates that while Russia may regroup and send fresh troops, these are unlikely to be experienced and will struggle to make a significant impact.

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Russian Tactical Limitations

🎦 04:37-05:38⏩

Jonathan notes that while Russia has improved in their use of drones and electronic warfare, their overall tactics remain largely unchanged and predictable. He argues that as Russia continues to exhaust its equipment, it also exhausts its tactical options. He concludes that the situation for Russia "doesn't look good".

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Bakhmut Frontline: Limited Territorial Changes

🎦 05:38-07:38⏩

Jonathan observes relative calm around Bakhmut itself, but notes continued fighting in surrounding areas, particularly Boda Nivka. He speculates that Ukraine will prioritize holding defensive lines west of Boda Nivka to prevent a Russian advance towards Chasiv Yar. He predicts Ukraine may cede more territory to the east of Bakhmut to reinforce these critical defensive positions.

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Southern Frontline: Avdiivka and Marinka

🎦 07:38-08:41⏩

Jonathan points out minor Russian gains in the south, thanking contributor JR for the updated mapping. He describes the situation as a series of "tree line gains" He acknowledges Russian advances along the railway line near Stepova but emphasizes the strategic importance of Ukrainian forces holding the line towards Berdychi to protect the main supply route into Avdiivka.

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Warmapper Map Updates: Avdiivka

🎦 08:41-09:41⏩

Shifting to Warmapper maps, Jonathan provides a three-week recap of frontline changes. He points out Russian advances around Avdiivka, mentioning President Zelensky's recent visit to the city. He acknowledges the limitations of Warmapper in terms of timeliness compared to other map sources.

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Warmapper Map Updates: Bakhmut

🎦 09:41-10:02⏩

Continuing with Warmapper, Jonathan highlights Russian advances west of Bakhmut, noting their capture of positions previously retaken by Ukraine. He highlights the Dacha area south of Bakhmut as a current focus of the fighting.

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Warmapper Map Updates: Kramina Forest and Northern Bakhmut

🎦 10:02-11:07⏩

Jonathan points out Russian gains in Kramina Forest, north of Siversk, and near the settlements of Vasylivka and Sperna, north of Bakhmut. He uses these examples to showcase the different color schemes of the Warmapper maps.

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Warmapper Map Updates: Sinkivka

🎦 11:07-11:25⏩

Jonathan notes the heavy Russian attacks on Sinkivka in recent weeks, highlighting the high Russian losses in the area. Despite these efforts, he emphasizes that Ukraine has so far prevented Russia from capturing or establishing a firm foothold within the settlement.

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Warmapper Map Updates: Marinka

🎦 11:25-12:07⏩

Jonathan focuses on the Marinka area, where Russian forces have advanced past the lakes and taken control of the entire settlement on the north bank of the reservoir.

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Warmapper Map Updates: Novomykhailivka and Novomokrivka

🎦 12:07-12:54⏩

Jonathan describes the ongoing fighting around Pobeda, a strategically important settlement. In Novomykhailivka, the frontline remains static, with both sides contesting control of the cemetery, industrial area, and agricultural zones. He observes that Russian attacks south of Novomykhailivka have pushed Ukrainian defenders back to the edge of the settlement, closing off the buffer zone around Novomokrivka.

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Warmapper Map Updates: Robotyne

🎦 12:54-14:08⏩

Jonathan shifts to the Robotyne area, noting its lack of change for an extended period. He highlights recent Russian successes in the southern part of the salient, recapturing positions lost during Ukraine's counteroffensive in mid-2023. However, he emphasizes that these gains are relatively minor compared to the overall frontline situation. He speculates that by May, the frontline might resemble its state at the start of 2023, a sobering thought considering the immense losses incurred over the year.

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Reflecting on a Year of War: Ukraine’s Resilience

🎦 14:08-15:45⏩

Jonathan reflects on the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion. Despite receiving insufficient military aid and ammunition, he praises Ukraine for its resilience and ability to hold off what was considered the "second greatest army in the world." He urges viewers to maintain perspective, emphasizing that Ukraine has performed admirably given the circumstances.

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ISW Assessment: The Importance of Ukraine’s 1991 Borders

🎦 15:45-21:08⏩

Jonathan discusses an ISW report that dismisses the likelihood of Russia abandoning its maximalist objectives in Ukraine. He highlights the report’s argument that defending Ukraine's internationally recognized 1991 borders, encompassing Crimea and the Donbas, is the most advantageous position for Ukraine both militarily and economically. Conceding territory to Russia would, according to the report, set a dangerous precedent, undermining international law and principles against territorial conquest and human rights violations.

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Negotiations: A Distant Prospect?

🎦 21:08-23:04⏩

Jonathan analyzes the prospects for negotiations, drawing an analogy to a marketplace haggling scenario. He believes Russia would be unlikely to settle for less territory than it currently controls, making it improbable that they would negotiate in good faith for anything less than their maximalist goals. Ukraine, in turn, would rightfully demand a return to its 1991 borders. He concludes that neither side appears ready for negotiations, and predicts a protracted conflict is the more likely scenario.

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Speculation: Missile Attacks as a Distraction

🎦 23:04-24:39⏩

Jonathan speculates that the recent surge in Russian missile and drone attacks might be an attempt by Putin to compensate for the stalled ground offensive and appease a domestic audience increasingly aware of the lack of progress. He acknowledges the potential for renewed Russian offensives, but emphasizes the heavy losses they have already suffered, questioning their capacity to achieve significant breakthroughs.

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Wrap up

🎦 24:39-24:43⏩

Jonathan thanks his viewers for their support and signs off.

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