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Ukraine War Update NEWS

News Thursday, 2nd November 2023, 10:40
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"We have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate."

Hello Team!

Jonathan welcomes viewers to the Ukraine War news update for 2 November 2023.

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Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses

  • 930 personnel losses is on the high end, indicating things are still very hot around Avdiivka and elsewhere
  • 18 tanks, 43 armoured personnel vehicles, 42 artillery systems, 4 MLRS, 3 anti-aircraft warfare systems all above average
  • Suggests Russians still attacking in Avdiivka
  • Evidence Ukrainians have degraded Russian artillery capabilities
  • Ukrainians need to further degrade Russian forces before taking territory back


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Andrew Perpetua's crowd-sourced Russian loss figures

  • Huge list of losses for both sides, close to parity
  • Significant Russian losses of electronic warfare and radar/surveillance systems
  • Ukrainian tank losses possibly the heaviest in a long time, including Leopard 2A4, indicating they may have been on the attack e.g. counter-attack north of Krasnohorivka
  • Going on the attack inevitably leads to losses


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Ukrainian information warfare driving Russian desertions

  • US Army Special Operations Commander said Ukrainian information warfare has driven 17,000 Russian soldiers off the battlefield
  • Messaging has played a huge tactical and operational role
  • Desertions could be soldiers becoming POWs
  • Psychological warfare also happening from Georgia


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Previously undocumented Russian losses in Avdiivka offensive

  • OSINT investigation found at least 197 confirmed Russian vehicle losses, 18 potential losses since offensive started Oct 9-10
  • Likely over 200 lost in reality as unlikely every loss documented
  • Puts into context the massive claimed losses of 43 APVs across the front in a single day

Drones changing the battlefield

  • Drones mean you can't move anywhere without being spotted, then immediately targeted by long-range precision weapons
  • Represents a new paradigm compared to previous wars
  • Vehicles often filmed being destroyed from multiple drone angles
  • Once spotted, a target can be hit from 50-100km away by excalibur rounds, GMLRS, HIMARS etc.
  • Zaluzhny emphasized this challenge in his Economist interview


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Zaluzhny's Economist interview and essay

  • War is in a stalemate, a "positional war" due to current technology
  • Avoiding this requires gaining air superiority, breaching minefields, improving counter-battery/EW
  • Emphasizes drones, AI, technology over numerical superiority
  • Brutally honest about challenges and shortcomings of recent counteroffensive
  • Extending Ukraine's indigenous drone/defense industry is key
  • West needs to increase weapons production
  • More analysis to follow in a dedicated video


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Other updates

  • Russian online searches for "assisting the war" 7x higher than last year, possibly due to military's difficulties
  • Russian poll: 70% would support Putin ending war, but only 1/3 if it meant returning occupied territories
  • Possibly Kremlin "testing the waters" of public opinion
  • Russian MP's mic cut when he called for peace talks, showing lack of free speech
  • Prigozhin's son takes over Wagner PMC, now part of Rosgvardia, puzzling given Wagner's opposition to Russian MoD
  • Fake news of Putin's death possibly spread by Russia to gauge reactions
  • Russian planes dropping explosives on Black Sea shipping corridor
  • ISW: Avdiivka a microcosm of Russian command's failure to learn from previous mistakes


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Wrap up

Jonathan apologizes for the longer than usual video and thanks viewers for watching. He invites them to like, subscribe and share the video.

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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand

The identity of the 1970s/80s actor Jonathan thought one of the "Putins" resembled. He spent 15 minutes unsuccessfully searching on IMDB.

🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process

Steps: Extract video title, date and part from the YouTube title Identify main topics discussed in order mentioned in the video Summarize each topic, keeping important details and context Note any sources or individuals credited by Jonathan Capture Jonathan's insights, analysis, opinions where offered Look for opportunities to include Jonathan's personality, humor, passion Select most profound or poignant quote from the video Add introduction and wrap-up sections Use British English spellings and grammar Format using provided XML structure

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