Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Growing Asymmetry, Military Spending, & Running the Gauntlet
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|
"If impunity doesn't end now, we will see many more hospitals destroyed as a means of war in the future. Unpunished evil always grows."
Hello Team!
Jonathan has been busy doing yardwork on a beautiful day but his upper body still works so he can present some extra nuggets and tidbits to give greater understanding of the war in Ukraine. He will cover a comment from one of his members, Jerome Roloffs, about an article on Russian targeting of hospitals.
Return to top⤴️
Systemic Russian targeting of Ukrainian medical facilities
- A British Medical Journal investigation found over 700 attacks on Ukrainian hospitals, health workers and medical infrastructure in first year of war, averaging 2 per day
- Included bombing hospitals, torturing medics, shooting ambulances
- 292 attacks damaged/destroyed 218 hospitals/clinics, 181 attacks on pharmacies, blood centers etc, 65 attacks on ambulances
- 86 attacks on health workers, 62 killed, 52 injured
- Evidence suggests attacks constitute war crimes and potentially crimes against humanity
- Russia used similar "murderous tactic" in Chechnya and Syria with no accountability
- Over 600 attacks on 350 medical facilities in Syria by Syrian/Russian forces
- Jonathan is appalled by this, sees no moral high ground for pro-Russian voices, and struggles to have genuine discussion on morality given asymmetry between Ukrainian and Russian actions
Driving in the war zone
Jonathan shows a 4-minute video of what it's like for drivers negotiating dangerous roads, likely in the Bakhmut area. The heavy breathing indicates how stressful it is. Points out:
- They are driving a right-hand UK 4x4/SUV vehicle
- Ukrainians prefer RHD cars as Russians expect driver on left and target that side, making it safer for the driver
- Roads are treacherous with many shell holes
- Destroyed/burning vehicles seen on roadside including an M113 medical APC
- Sounds like they have a passenger in the back
Has the war changed Jonathan's view on UK defense spending?
In response to a "great question" from member Eric Grace, Jonathan ponders if the war has changed his view as a "lefty liberal" on UK defense spending, which is set to decimate the army to a smaller colonial-style force.
- Believes liberalism needs "teeth" to avoid being taken advantage of
- Understands difficulty justifying military spending over education, welfare in peacetime
- European approach was to change Russia through cooperation, trade, capitalism but Putin reacted against that to become a dictator
- Recognizes UK is underspending and not in great state for a war in Europe, relying on NATO
- Recession and economic woes make increasing spending harder but are also linked to Russia
- Believes renewables are key for energy security and phasing out hydrocarbons would hammer Russia
- Concludes higher defense spending is a "necessary evil" in UK and allies' best interests to future-proof against threats, but will require cuts elsewhere
Exposing Russian military claims
Jonathan highlights how modern ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) tools allow the public to fact-check Russian claims, citing an example from a Perun video:
- Russia claimed destroying a hangar in Bereslav holding 25 vehicles and 200 troops
- Firms satellite data showed no fire signatures in the area in the 7 days prior
- Commercial satellite imagery would show structural damage if claim was true
- Difficult for Russia to hide anything from overhead assets even if reported strike didn't happen
- Open source intelligence can piece together that Ukrainian figures are at least plausible while some Russian claims are "absolutely nuts" and never feasible
Growing asymmetry between Russian and Ukrainian military capabilities
Perun's video also covers:
- Russia squandered early advantage in long-range munitions, eg. firing 3.5 years worth of Iskander missile production by May 2022, often at minor targets
- Cruise missiles used against civilian power/hospitals strained Ukraine but didn't break economy/society
- Russia's hyped Tornado-S MLRS (HIMARS equivalent) notably absent, possibly due to lack of ammunition
- Delay in Ukraine getting some Western missiles due to integration challenges
- Ukraine building suite of capabilities (GLSDB, SCALP-ER, Taurus, MOLD decoys) while Russia gets no new options
- Consistent degradation of Russian military vs upgrading of Ukrainian leading to growing asymmetry
- Arguments that delaying Ukrainian counteroffensive could degrade Russia even further
Jonathan sees this "one-way traffic" giving Ukraine more hope than anything. Believes Russia's objectives are unattainable and the growing asymmetry means they can't prevail, only hope for a long war to keep Crimea at best.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and will be back tomorrow.
Return to top⤴️
