Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News

"if you really like trump then what you are doing ... is ... you cannot inoculate yourself from criticism of trump"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-08:30⏩

Jonathan introduces the video as the second part of the Ukraine war update for the 29th December 2023. He acknowledges that whilst there has been a lot of focus on the strikes across Ukraine the previous night, there is other news to share. Jonathan then digresses slightly as he addresses criticism he received from viewers the day before about his comments relating to Donald Trump. He explains that many people requested he didn't mention Trump but qualifies this by saying it is important to analyse what Trump says given the potential foreign policy consequences. Jonathan argues that people should never place a human being on a pedestal as "no humans are perfect" and "everyone is grey essentially". He reminds his viewers that he has written articles about this before, drawing comparison with the concept of blasphemy: "when you believe in God, if someone criticizes your God, it's called blasphemy" but when this is extended to human beings, it stifles debate. He highlights how Elon Musk's supporters often react the same way if he is challenged. Jonathan reminds us that he does believe in shutting down deliberate misinformation spread e.g. Russian trolls.

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Ukraine: New 'Jupiter Hunter 1' Silent Reconnaissance Drone

🎦 00:20-01:20⏩

A new practically silent electric reconnaissance drone called "Jupiter Hunter 1" has been presented in Ukraine. It is resistant to electronic warfare and jamming devices. The drone can be used for a number of functions including: surveillance, reconnaissance, photo acquisition and transmission and cooperation with ground operations forces. It can operate for 1.5hours with a 10kg payload (150km range) or 3.5 hours with a 2kg payload (350km range)

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Ukraine: Domestic Military Production Update

🎦 01:20-02:39⏩

Ukraine's Minister of Strategic Industries has provided an update on domestic military production. The "Bogdana" self-propelled howitzer (of which only 2 prototypes existed) is now being produced at a rate of 6 per month. Production increases in other areas since 2022 include:

• APCs: Up 5 times over the last 6 months.
• Armoured vehicles: Up 3.4 times.
• ATGMs: Production has doubled
• Mortar shells: Production up 42 times
• Artillery ammunition: Production up two and a half times.

Jonathan highlights how crucial increasing production of mortar bombs and artillery shells will be.

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Ukraine: Klitschko Brothers Donation

🎦 02:40-03:17⏩

Vladimir Klitschko has handed over seven electronic warfare installations to Ukraine's defenders in Eastern Ukraine. Kyiv's mayor (and brother) Vitali Klitschko has also confirmed a delivery of 80 FPVs and eight Mavic 3 quadcopters will be transferred to four military units on the front line.

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Military Aid: Joint UK-France Order for Storm Shadow/Scalp Missiles?

🎦 03:17-05:38⏩

Jonathan highlights a thread from "French air to Ukraine", similar to "Germany to Ukraine" and "UK to Ukraine", about the potential for a joint order of Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles. Michel Duclos, former ambassador (to Ukraine?) suggests that France and the UK could place a joint order with MBDA (the manufacturer) which could, in turn, encourage Berlin and Washington to supply Taurus missiles and heavy lift ATACMS respectively. Jonathan agrees but questions why this hasn't happened already. There appears not to have been any orders placed. A suggestion is offered that as the missiles are being phased out, production schedules and available capital could be a factor. Jonathan summarises the issue: Ukraine uses up weapons, then people demand more, but the manufacturers aren't making them anymore as they are phasing them out - so what then happens? Do they ramp up production, rebuild production facilities, but at what cost? Jonathan questions how receptive companies would be to spending millions to ramp up production for 1 year given the uncertainity.

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Military Aid: Taurus Missiles - Integration With F16s & Gripen

🎦 05:38-07:34⏩

Germany to Ukraine have commented that the Taurus cruise missile could be used with the F-16s Ukraine is due to receive, however, the manufacturer has stated that integration would take 18 months (compared to 6 months for the SU-24 platform). It's also been suggested that the Swedish Gripen could use the Taurus missile, although MBDA Germany did not mention this as a platform at a recent press meeting. There are currently no plans to send Gripen to Ukraine. John Ridge disputes the 18-month integration timeframe. He highlights that it took only 7 months to integrate Storm Shadow Scalp EG with the SU-24M, a platform that "lacks the MIL-STD-1760 interfaces that Taurus is designed for", concluding that integrating the Taurus with the F-16 should be less challenging.

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US Aid to Ukraine vs EU Aid to Ukraine: Is Trump Correct?

🎦 07:34-15:26⏩

Jonathan moves on to comments made by Donald Trump, highlighting the interest in the 2024 US Presidential election outside of the US and the impact it will have on Ukraine. Trump recently claimed that European nations should be contributing more financially to the war in Ukraine: "Why is it that they're in for a tiny fraction of what we are in terms of payments with regard to Ukraine? So we're in for perhaps 200 billion, it could be more. Nobody really even knows the number". Jonathan points out that this is incorrect as the figures are publically available. Trump goes on: "and they're in for a tiny fraction of that. Very unfair. I say they have to equalise it". Randy Mott, a Republican activist, disagrees and points out that the US needs to catch up with Europe, sharing figures showing that from 24/01/2022 - 31/07/2023:

• EU countries and institutions have given €131.9 billion
• The US has given €69.5 billion
• Other donor countries have given €36.5 billion.

Furthermore, the US has reduced its aid to Ukraine in the last four months whilst EU countries (and the EU itself) have increased theirs. Jonathan reiterates that he is not criticising the US, but rather those who have a false sense of the reality, adding that this is based on old figures. An infographic (dated 07/09/2023) is then shown that highlights Military Aid only:

• The EU has given almost as much as the US.
• If the UK and Norway are added (2nd and 3rd largest contributors in Europe) the amount surpasses the US.

Jonathan concludes by stating that "the simple idea that Europe needs to step up and uh the US is kind of is taking this thing on its own kind of thing is just not correct" and highlights the importance of being able to accept criticism of people we like.

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Poland: New Prime Minister Tusk To Visit Kyiv

🎦 15:26-16:13⏩

Poland's new prime minister, Donald Tusk, will visit Kyiv soon. Jonathan believes he will be a key player in driving support for Ukraine in Eastern Europe.

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Hungary/Ukraine: Zelensky and Orbán To Meet Soon

🎦 16:13-16:35⏩

The presidents of Ukraine and Hungary are due to meet soon. Following the 2022 Russian invasion, there has been limited contact between the two countries as Viktor Orbán is known to be pro-Russian. There has, however, been an increase in contact between the two leaders in recent weeks. Jonathan is hopeful that something positive will come out of the meeting.

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Germany: €4 Billion in Russian Assets Frozen

🎦 16:35-17:52⏩

Germany has frozen over €4 billion of Russian assets to help ensure reparations are paid to Ukraine. Jonathan highlights a related article published in the Financial Times regarding a G7 plan, spearheaded by the US, to use frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine's war effort. The plan, backed by the UK, Japan, and Canada, would involve seizing $300 billion of Russian assets. Working groups are to be established in each nation and are expected to have plans in place by the second anniversary of the invasion (24th February 2024) when the G7 will meet.

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Kyrgyzstan: Trade Booms From Russian Sanctions

🎦 17:52-19:07⏩

Jonathan highlights how Kyrgyzstan has benefitted from Russia's strategy of parallel importing to bypass international sanctions, taking on a key role in facilitating the flow of sanctioned goods into Russia via a third country. Jonathan acknowledges the challenges in preventing this, questioning how you can blame Kyrgyzstan given the economic benefits. He highlights the moral challenge to the EU, US and allies in trying to prevent this.

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Ukraine: Public Debt Exceeds $140.8 Billion

🎦 19:07-19:31⏩

Ukraine's public debt has exceeded $140.8 billion, as reported by the head of the Ukrainian Tax Committee, Danilya Hetmansev. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, the state debt has grown by 50.9% in currency equivalents. Jonathan acknowledges that whilst this is unsurprising, it will be a challenge going forward for Ukraine.

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Serbia: Russia Accuses West of Plotting "Colour Revolution"

🎦 19:32-20:52⏩

Russia has accused the West of plotting a "colour revolution" in Serbia ahead of expected large protests in 48 hours. The Serbian government (who thanked Russian intelligence for the information) are expected to crack down on any protests. Jonathan fears that Serbian opposition, particularly young students, will be harmed or arrested. Jonathan highlights Ivana Stradler as someone he is trying to get an interview with, asking for help in contacting her.

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Russia: Citizen Detained for 120 Eggs on Black Market

🎦 20:52-21:29⏩

The FSB in Russia have detained a citizen for bringing 120 eggs on the black market. The eggs were illegally imported from Kazakhstan. The citizen is facing 7 years in prison for tax evasion after stealing 200 rubles (£2) from the Russian budget. Jonathan's reaction: "Goodness me. It's going well. Right. This is something. Goodness. Right."

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Russian Propaganda: "They Stole Christmas" & Economic Narratives

🎦 21:30-29:25⏩

Jonathan discusses a recent Russian propaganda campaign claiming that “they stole Christmas”, citing soaring prices, unemployment and expensive visas to Russia as reasons for European discontentment. He questions this, recalling a recent conversation with a friend who made similar claims about the European economy. He also recalls a conversation with another friend who had recently travelled on a train in the US and overheard two people discussing the American Economy. When an announcement was made that inflation was down to 3.5% (approx), one of them refuted it, claiming it was double that. The conversation prompted Jonathan to think about the dangers of disinformation and how people will readily accept information that confirms their existing biases. The unemployment rate graph (seasonally adjusted from Jan 2008 to Oct 2023) shows that unemployment rates in the EU and EEA are at their lowest since 2008. Euro core inflation is also down to 3.5%. Jonathan highlights how these claims about Europe are demonstrably false, but despite this, the Russians continue to push this disinformation. Jonathan then expresses his concern that these narratives gain traction outside of Russia. He refers back to the claims about Europe and is then shown a graph of unemployment rates which illustrates that they are in fact at their lowest since 2008. He then mentions how he has recently spoken about how well the US economy is doing (low inflation, record low unemployment for black, hispanic and female workers). Jonathan then shares a selection of headlines that all support his view that the US economy is doing well despite what some Americans may think:

• "The Economy Is Great. Why Do Americans Blame Biden?" - The Wall Street Journal.
• "US Economy Doing Well Under Biden, Americans Don't Believe It" - The Telegraph
• "US Economy Going Strong Under Biden, Americans Don't Believe It. Perceptions, not reality, decide elections, and Donald Trump's re-election campaign knows it."

He concludes by warning viewers to be wary of narratives relating to the economy, especially if they come from sources seeking to promote Trump and denigrate Biden, arguing that the US economy is in fact doing very well. Jonathan believes that if the US economy is doing well, it increases the chances of Ukraine succeeding in the war, concluding: "if America does well does well uh sorry words are difficult today if america does well the us does well ukraine is more likely to do well and and i want uk Ukraine to do well"

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Wrap Up

🎦 29:25-29:34⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share. He acknowledges that some viewers will disagree with his opinions but concludes: "hey, that's the nature of the beast. You know, I'm going for it."

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