Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"It's a shit show. Like, what is going on?"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:26⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another ATP Geopolitics update on the Ukraine war. He apologises as he's had to re-record the video which will be packed with information because of audio issues on the first attempt!
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Report Russian Losses
🎦 00:26-01:08⏩
Jonathan reviews the latest Ukrainian General Staff report for 11 June 2024:
- 980 Russian personnel were lost, a high figure (but not as high as previous weeks). This is a possible indication that the intensity of fighting in the Kharkiv Oblast is reducing.
- Other significant losses include 9 tanks, 46 artillery systems (3 times the average) and 60 vehicles and fuel tanks.
Oryx Visually Confirmed Russian and Ukrainian Losses
🎦 01:08-03:36⏩
Jonathan cross-references the Ukrainian General Staff figures with Oryx, the independent visually-confirmed loss documentation site run by Jakub Janowski (who previously worked with the founder of Oryx). Janowski reports the loss of 106 Russian vehicles over a 3-day period (to 11 June 2024), compared with 28 Ukrainian. Jonathan highlights how much work Andrew Perpetua and his team do to maintain their own loss list - "just incredible". He adds that the 5:1 loss ratio in Andrew Perpetua's list would be even higher if surveillance and comms equipment were to be excluded - although he acknowledges that this equipment is still important, just not as high value as a tank!
Return to top⤴️
Analysis of Visually Confirmed Ukrainian Losses
🎦 03:36-05:36⏩
Jonathan analyses the latest visually confirmed Ukrainian losses from Andrew Perpetua's list. These include an Su-25 (possibly a decoy), a P-18ML radar and a number of Western-supplied equipment, including 2 Bradleys, a MaxPro MRAP and 2 main battle tanks (an M1 Abrams and a Leopard 2A4). Jonathan suggests that the increase in Western equipment appearing in loss lists is a positive development as it suggests that older, less-capable Soviet-era equipment has been used up and that Western equipment is more survivable, increasing the chances of crews surviving.
Return to top⤴️
Analysis of Visually Confirmed Russian Losses
🎦 05:36-08:20⏩
Jonathan provides commentary on visually confirmed Russian losses, including 2 Su-34s, a Pantsir-S1 and Buk-M2 air defence systems. He notes how effective the Ukrainians have become at destroying Russian logistics, particularly at night using night vision drones: "this is confirmation that the Russians are doing most of their logistic moving at night because they are too afraid of the drones in the day".
Return to top⤴️
Heavy Russian Casualties Following Unsuccessful Assault
🎦 08:20-10:18⏩
Jonathan analyses imagery released by the Ukrainian 47th Brigade showing the aftermath of an unsuccessful assault by Russian forces. At least 23 Russian bodies can be seen in the imagery. According to David D (who Jonathan references), the true figure is closer to 63. Jonathan notes that this vividly illustrates the high number of Russian casualties being inflicted.
Return to top⤴️
Russian POW from the 83rd Brigade Surrenders
🎦 10:18-11:11⏩
In a video, a Russian POW from the 83rd Brigade states his intention to surrender alongside his wounded commander, "Butcher", citing exhaustion and lack of food and water as the reason for their decision.
Return to top⤴️
Evidence of Successful Ukrainian Air Defence
🎦 11:11-13:34⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a Ukrainian MANPAD crew engaging a pair of Russian Su-25s over the Donbas, with one being destroyed. He also examines an image of an S-300 launcher belonging to a Ukrainian air defence unit with an impressive tally of Russian aircraft destroyed, including 9 helicopters, 29 jets and an A-50. Jonathan notes: "incredibly impressive uh performance from this this crew there".
Return to top⤴️
Russians Increase Use of Motorcycles and Golf Carts
🎦 13:34-14:26⏩
Jonathan reports a significant increase in the use of motorcycles and golf carts by Russian forces, citing Oryx data that shows 72 golf carts and 80 motorbikes were lost in May 2024. He questions whether this is because of any tactical advantage or whether it's indicative of equipment shortages.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Mill Blogger Rogozin: The Age of "Shoot and Scoot" is Over
🎦 14:26-19:07⏩
Jonathan discusses comments by prominent Russian mill blogger, Rogozin, about the increasing challenges faced by Russian artillery. Rogozin states that the "age of shoot and scoot" is over, arguing that the proliferation of drones and mines means that concealment is now a higher priority than mobility. Rogozin highlights issues with Russian artillery, including barrel quality, poor-quality ammunition and range. He states: "In this war good camouflage and reliable cover are more important than the mobility of an artillery system".
Return to top⤴️
Russians Target Ukrainian Air Defences
🎦 19:07-21:17⏩
Footage is shown of a destroyed Russian Pantsir-S1 air defence system. Jonathan explains that the Ukrainians are successfully targeting Russian reconnaissance drones operating behind the front lines, significantly degrading Russia's ability to target Ukrainian positions: "these are worth taking out like with high value rockets really because of the damage they can do".
Return to top⤴️
Atesh Partisans Destroy Russian Satellite Communications Station
🎦 21:17-21:46⏩
Jonathan reports that the Atesh partisans have claimed to have destroyed a satellite communications station at the 584th Guards Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment near Klin in the Moscow Oblast.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine Reports 100% Interception of Russian Drones and Missiles Overnight
🎦 21:46-25:38⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine claims to have intercepted all 24 Shahed-136 drones launched at Ukraine overnight on 12 June 2024. He notes however that even when missiles and drones are intercepted, they can still cause damage when they hit the ground. He references a comment made by Ukraine Battle Map regarding an apparent discrepancy in Ukrainian reporting, which initially claimed that no targets in Kyiv were hit but later admitted that a warehouse and petrol station were damaged by falling debris. Ukraine Battle Map highlights how easy it is to deliberately misrepresent facts in this way.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Strikes on Crimea Overnight
🎦 25:38-28:30⏩
Jonathan reports that there were multiple explosions across Crimea overnight, including in Sevastopol, Simferopol and at Saki air base. He says that details are still being confirmed but notes that the Saki air base was also hit two nights previously. He provides details of this earlier strike, in which an S-300 air defence system and support equipment were destroyed.
Return to top⤴️
Explosions Reported in Donetsk
🎦 28:30-28:39⏩
Jonathan reports explosions in Donetsk, but that details are yet to emerge.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainians Strike Russian Logistics Hub Near Belgorod
🎦 28:39-30:26⏩
Jonathan reports that a large fire near Sumy (which he reported a couple of days ago) was caused by Ukrainian strikes on a Russian logistics hub. He credits Pierre for highlighting the significance of this and other Ukrainian strikes which have forced the Russians to relocate S-300 air defence systems away from Kharkiv. Jonathan adds: "Incredibly important that".
Return to top⤴️
Russians Retaliate, Targeting Ukrainian Air Bases
🎦 30:26-31:28⏩
Jonathan speculates whether Russian strikes on Ukrainian airbases were in retaliation for the recent downing of a Russian Su-57. Fighter Bomber, a Russian source, claims that 3 Ukrainian air bases were hit in 2 days. Jonathan adds: "this is not good right".
Return to top⤴️
Russians Target Ukrainian Su-27
🎦 31:28-34:51⏩
Footage is shown of a Russian Tornado-S (or possibly Iskander-M) striking a Ukrainian Su-27 at Mirgorod air base. Jonathan states that it is unclear if it was a decoy and explains that the lack of secondary explosion suggests that this was a possibility.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Drone Reaches Dagestan
🎦 34:51-35:20⏩
Jonathan reports that a Ukrainian drone reached Dagestan. He notes that this demonstrates that Russia does not have the air defence capacity to protect its entire airspace.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine Recovery Conference, Germany
🎦 35:20-36:50⏩
Jonathan summarises key news from the Ukraine Recovery Conference held in Germany:
- Zelensky: Ukraine is aiming to repair its energy infrastructure before winter
- Zelensky: Ukraine needs 7 Patriot batteries to protect cities and key infrastructure. Jonathan adds: "really good news on Patriots coming in the next video"
- 80% of Ukraine's thermal power generation and a third of its hydroelectric generation was destroyed by Russia
- Ukraine seeking foreign direct investment rather than grants
- Ukraine seeking direct financial aid and equipment from Europe to support power plants
- Agreements worth billions of euros are expected to be signed at the conference
- EU accession negotiations likely to begin this month.
Floods in Kyiv
🎦 36:50-36:50⏩
Jonathan reports significant flooding in Kyiv which will place further strain on the Ukrainian economy and energy infrastructure, "a real challenge for the Ukrainians there".
Return to top⤴️
FSB: Ukrainians Responsible for Terrorist Attack in Moscow
🎦 36:50-37:29⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia is blaming Ukraine for a recent terrorist attack in Moscow, but without providing any evidence.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Woman Escapes Russian-Occupied Territory
🎦 37:30-38:42⏩
Jonathan describes the "incredible story" of a Ukrainian woman who escaped from Russian-occupied territory by crossing the remains of the Antonivsky Bridge. He praises her courage, noting how dangerous a journey it would have been.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine Claims to have Starlink Alternative for Crimea
🎦 38:42-39:23⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine claims to have found an alternative to Starlink for use in Crimea, following Elon Musk's decision to geofence the system, preventing its use on the peninsula. Jonathan expresses his disbelief that people still support Musk given his decision: "Blows my mind that people still think that he's kosher".
Return to top⤴️
Russians Digging Trenches in Crimea
🎦 39:23-40:12⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia is digging trenches around the coast of Crimea, possibly in anticipation of a Ukrainian landing. Whilst acknowledging that Ukrainian operations have degraded Russian defences in Crimea, Jonathan doubts the likelihood of this.
Return to top⤴️
Putin Losing Control of Crimea?
🎦 40:12-42:25⏩
Jonathan cites an article in the Daily Telegraph in which a former Royal Navy office states that Russia is "seriously scared" of losing control of Crimea. He also quotes Francis Dearn, a journalist from The Telegraph, who states that the initiative has now shifted to Ukraine, following the arrival of Western weapons: "it looks like Russia has really made a mess of the Kharkiv attack, but also just the whole war". Jonathan agrees with this assessment, concluding that the Russian campaign appears to lack coherent strategic direction. He questions what Russian military planners are doing, adding "It's a shit show. Like, what is going on?".
Return to top⤴️
Russians Express Concern Over Conduct of the War
🎦 42:25-44:24⏩
Jonathan notes that it's not just Western analysts who are critical of the Russian campaign, highlighting comments made by Russian sources. He cites a Russian source quoted by Wartranslated who states: "If there will be no positive changes in the army, there will be no victory. We will be broken up by this NATO expletive gang led by Anglo-Saxons". Jonathan adds: "The Russians are saying the same thing" and that the situation would be even worse for Russia had the West supplied ATACMs and F-16s sooner.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
🎦 44:24-44:33⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
Return to top⤴️
