Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid

"They're doing that by the bucket load with drones, surely."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:19⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the military aid segment of the Ukraine War news update, the second part for 09/02/2024. He apologises that it will be a quick update as he is tired and needs sleep. He mentions that it's been a busy day for him and he will talk more about it tomorrow.

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Shelling/Ammunition shortages

🎦 00:19-01:16⏩

Jonathan highlights the recurring issue of equipment and artillery ammunition shortages faced by Ukrainian forces, leading to casualties on the front lines. He explains that a unit he spoke to has had to reduce their shelling to a sixth of previous levels due to a severe shortage of shells.

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US Aid and Politics

🎦 01:16-03:13⏩

Jonathan discusses the US political landscape surrounding aid to Ukraine, citing Heather Cox Richardson's observation that the MAGA movement is driven by resentment towards the US political process. On a positive note, he mentions that a bill containing aid packages for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan has passed the Senate with a 67-32 vote. However, he expresses uncertainty about its fate in the House of Representatives, noting that some Democrats may oppose the bill due to the inclusion of Israel funding, while some Republicans may vote against it due to the Ukraine aid component. He cites an example of Republican Senator Tim Scott stating that his priorities were the border, Israel, Taiwan and then Ukraine. Jonathan expresses his frustration about those who want to prioritise aid to Israel and the Indo-Pacific region, arguing that Israel is not in imminent danger and that a war in the Indo-Pacific is not yet a reality.

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US Aid Vital - Institute for the Study of War

🎦 03:13-03:28⏩

Jonathan highlights the Institute for the Study of War's assessment that US aid remains crucial for Ukraine's defense industrial base in the near to medium term.

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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urges allies to increase support for Ukraine

🎦 03:28-04:12⏩

Jonathan reports that during his visit to Washington, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz appealed to European and US allies to provide greater support for Ukraine. Scholz stressed the need to send a clear message to Putin that backing for Ukraine will remain strong and substantial. He urges all nations to intensify their efforts, as current pledges are insufficient and warned against decreasing military aid, emphasizing the importance of preventing a Russian victory. Jonathan observes that Scholz appears to be fully committed to supporting Ukraine and is making military aid a top priority in his discussions with US officials.

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Next Ramstein format meeting - 14th February 2024 in Brussels

🎦 04:15-04:50⏩

Jonathan announces that the next meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, in the Ramstein format, is scheduled for February 14th in Brussels. He expresses optimism that the meeting will yield additional aid for Ukraine, including potential pledges from the US.

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EU Provides DOK ING MV10 Demining system to Ukraine

🎦 04:50-05:15⏩

Jonathan reports that the EU has delivered a DOK ING MV10 demining system to Ukraine's State Service of Special Transport as part of a €25 million humanitarian demining package. Jonathan describes the demining system as a "good piece of kit".

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Ukraine Developing Lancet Analogue Kamikaze Drone - 40km range

🎦 05:15-05:49⏩

Jonathan reveals that Ukraine is developing its own version of Russia's Lancet kamikaze drone, capable of engaging targets up to 40km away. Citing Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister for Digital Transformation, he states that testing is underway, a development that has been widely reported. He notes that the Lancet's range, which surpasses that of typical FPV drones, is noteworthy, along with its likely larger warhead.

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First Contracts for Ukraine's Lancet Analogue in coming weeks

🎦 05:49-05:50⏩

Jonathan reports that initial contracts for Ukraine's Lancet Analogue kamikaze drone will be signed soon, with deployment to the front lines expected shortly after.

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Baykar (Bayraktar) to build plant in Ukraine

🎦 05:53-06:32⏩

Jonathan announces that Baykar, the Turkish manufacturer of the Bayraktar drone, is establishing a presence in Ukraine. Construction of their plant has begun, and according to Alexander Kamyshin, it's progressing rapidly. Jonathan recalls visiting the location in September with Haluk Bayraktar (son-in-law of Turkish President Erdogan) to witness the groundbreaking ceremony. He expresses satisfaction that the project, after years of delays, is now moving forward quickly.

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Ukraine and Sweden discuss purchase of Swedish CV-90 BMPs (Infantry Fighting Vehicles)

🎦 06:32-07:06⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukraine and Sweden are in discussions about Ukraine potentially purchasing a batch of Swedish-made CV-90 infantry fighting vehicles, which he considers highly effective. Sweden's Defense Materiel Administration received government authorization in January 2024 to prepare an agreement for the supply of CV-90s to Ukraine. Quoting Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister, Mitro Kumenkov, Jonathan highlights that such an agreement would facilitate not only a one-time arms transfer but also foster broader cooperation in the defense industry, potentially leading to the localization of some production in Ukraine.

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Ukraine increases FPV production tenfold to 50,000 per month

🎦 07:06-07:56⏩

Citing The Wall Street Journal and an analyst from the European Council on Foreign Relations, Jonathan reports that Ukraine has increased its production of First Person View (FPV) drones tenfold in the past six months. Production has surged from 5,000 per month to 50,000 per month, with approximately 200 enterprises now involved. Jonathan acknowledges that these figures primarily reflect official production numbers and likely don't encompass the substantial contributions from smaller-scale procurement efforts by various units, charities, and individuals, which he believes contribute significantly to the overall drone supply.

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Why Ukraine relies on donations

🎦 07:56-10:19⏩

Jonathan discusses the reasons behind the reliance on donations and independent fundraising for military equipment in Ukraine. While acknowledging the impressive increase in official FPV drone production, he notes that the demand for drones and other equipment remains incredibly high, often outstripping the state's ability to procure and supply in a timely and responsive manner. He explains that while the Ukrainian government, through entities like United24 and the Ministry of Defence, is making efforts to meet the needs of the armed forces, the sheer scale of the conflict and the rapidly evolving battlefield requirements necessitate a more agile and decentralized approach. He highlights the critical role played by individuals like "Zhenya" and "Greg" and their organisation who work directly with units to identify specific equipment needs, source them from manufacturers (sometimes with customized specifications), and ensure their swift delivery to the front lines. Jonathan provides specific examples, such as the procurement of metal detectors with modified heads and software tailored to the requirements of frontline troops, to illustrate the effectiveness of this direct, needs-based approach. He emphasizes that this dynamic and responsive model, often operating outside the traditional bureaucratic structures, is vital in ensuring Ukrainian forces receive the precise equipment they need, when they need it.

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The true scale of donations to Ukraine

🎦 10:19-11:47⏩

Jonathan speculates on the actual volume of donations and independently procured equipment flowing into Ukraine, suggesting that the true figures likely dwarf official statistics. He uses the example of a Territorial Defense unit he visited, where 100% of their SUVs were donated, highlighting the widespread reliance on such contributions. He attributes this, in part, to the Territorial Defense's lower prioritization in the military hierarchy compared to units like Special Forces or assault brigades, leading to a greater dependence on external support. He emphasizes that despite their lower priority status, the Territorial Defense has effectively become an integral part of the Ukrainian armed forces, underscoring the significance of these donations in equipping and enabling their operations. Jonathan concludes that the sheer quantity of donated SUVs, coupled with the already substantial number of drones being produced and procured through various channels, indicates that the overall influx of equipment into Ukraine is likely far greater than official figures suggest, signifying a positive development for the country's defense capabilities.

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Jonathan witnesses Tracked Drones/UGVs (Unmanned Ground Vehicles)

🎦 11:47-12:34⏩

Jonathan shares his experience of witnessing tracked drones, also known as unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), being operated on farmland. These versatile vehicles are designed for various tasks, including mine deployment and casualty evacuation using large hooks for lifting or dragging. He mentions that the unit operating these UGVs is seeking funding for additional units through the charity he is involved with. He expresses his enthusiasm for seeing these innovative technologies being deployed effectively.

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Ukraine drone forces deploy unmanned robotic ground vehicle with machine gun, adjusted by aerial drones

🎦 12:34-12:54⏩

Jonathan reports on a groundbreaking development in Ukraine's drone warfare capabilities. Ukrainian drone forces have deployed an unmanned robotic ground vehicle armed with a machine gun, which was reportedly adjusted and directed using aerial drones to eliminate Russian personnel. Jonathan highlights the significance of this event, emphasizing Ukraine's successful integration and utilization of these advanced technologies on the battlefield.

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Ukraine parliament passes mobilisation bill in first reading

🎦 12:54-13:31⏩

Jonathan announces that the Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, has passed an updated mobilization bill on its first reading. This updated bill is intended to revise the legal framework surrounding conscription, with the aim of bolstering mobilization efforts throughout 2024. Jonathan notes that for the bill to become law, it needs to pass a second reading in parliament and receive the president's signature. He anticipates potential adaptations to the bill and suggests that changes to the mobilization system are necessary for Ukraine to increase troop numbers on the front lines.

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First video evidence of UK's Supercat HMT truck air defence system (with AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles) being used in Ukraine

🎦 13:31-14:06⏩

Jonathan highlights the emergence of the first video evidence confirming the deployment of the British-made air defense system in Ukraine. This system is mounted on a Supercat HMT truck chassis and utilizes AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles, which are typically air-to-air missiles. Jonathan had previously reported on this innovative British adaptation of existing missile technology. He expresses satisfaction in seeing this system actively used by Ukrainian forces.

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Italian senate approves weapons decree extending authorisation to send military equipment to Ukraine

🎦 14:06-14:25⏩

Jonathan reports that the Italian senate has greenlit a weapons decree that extends the authorization for transferring military vehicles, materials, and equipment to Ukraine. The vote saw 218 out of 260 deputies voting in favor and 42 against. Jonathan interprets this as positive news, indicating Italy's continued commitment to providing assistance to Ukraine.

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Wrap Up

🎦 14:25-14:59⏩

Jonathan concludes the video by mentioning that he will be sharing more about his recent experiences, hinting at an upcoming article based on his observations. He encourages viewers to check out Greg Terry's livestream, which he plans to mirror on his channel the next day. This livestream featured an interview with "Fish," a soldier acquainted with Greg and Zhenya. Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching and signs off. Maps by JR.

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