Ukraine War Update: News & Frontline (not Bakhmut)
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Table of Contents 📖
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"There's just too much stuff going to Belarus for that to be a feint. And as I say, if it's a feint, it's a stupid feint."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war for 12 January 2023, focusing on news and frontline developments (excluding Bakhmut).
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Russian Losses and Overnight News
- Ukrainian figures for Russian losses show a downtick, possibly due to focus on Bakhmut
- Overnight fires reported in Moscow and St. Petersburg
- Ukrainian forces downed a Ka-52 attack helicopter
- Ballistic missile strike on Soledar killed up to 100 Russian soldiers
Russian Military Command Changes
- Valery Gerasimov taking over command of Russian forces in Ukraine, with Surovikin demoted to deputy
- Move seen as attempt to improve Russian command and control, and to strengthen Russian MoD against criticism from military bloggers and Wagner group
- ISW suggests this may indicate decisive Russian military effort in 2023, possibly in Luhansk Oblast
Military Aid and Equipment
- Poland and Lithuania to transfer company of Leopard tanks to Ukraine, but Germany refusing permission unless US also provides M1 Abrams tanks
- British PM Rishi Sunak asks Defence Secretary Ben Wallace to go "further and faster" with support for Ukraine, including provision of tanks
- Large shipment of US military equipment arrives in Rotterdam port, possibly destined for Poland and Lithuania to build up NATO forces
Concerning Developments
- Continued transfer of Russian troops and equipment to Belarus, raising concerns of possible attack (though Jonathan questions strategic logic)
- Mass exodus of Russian warships and submarines from Novorossiysk port, possibly indicating imminent operation or missile strikes on Ukraine
Economic Impact on Russia
Russia losing $172 million per day due to oil price caps, set to rise to $280 million per day in February. This will hurt Russia's ability to fund the war, and could lead to domestic discontent.
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Frontline Update: Kupyansk to Kreminna
- Little change reported along most of the frontline from Kupyansk to Kreminna
- Some progress indicated around Kreminna, with Ukrainian forces on the outskirts and artillery now hitting the town directly for the first time
- Russian forces deploying more experienced troops (VDV) to Kreminna area, fearing loss of the settlement
- Ongoing skirmishes and destruction of Ukrainian sabotage/recon groups reported by Russia near Kreminna
Frontline Update: Bakhmut to Kherson
- Repelled Russian attacks north of Bakhmut around Sil, Spirne, Rozdolivka
- Minimal changes along frontline from Avdiivka down to Kherson
- Russian claims of capturing Opytne south of Avdiivka (which Jonathan says has been under their control for some time)
- Ongoing artillery duels along Dnipro River and strikes on Nikopol
Wrap up
Jonathan will provide a separate update on the Bakhmut situation. He thanks viewers for their support and apologises that he may not have time for an extra video today due to attending a funeral.
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