Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"It's becoming a parody - why bother condemning what you have the power to stop? That is just a big green light to Putin."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:58⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers - it's Sunday and a later video than usual. His son got "manned" of the match in his first rugby game of the season but they lost - he's supposed to play scrum-half but was put on the wing.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff report substantial Russian losses
🎦 00:58-03:00⏩
Jonathan shares the Ukrainian General Staff figures (with the usual caveats).
- Personnel: 1170 (above average, unsustainable)
- Tanks: 6 (below average)
- Armoured Fighting Vehicles: 20 (above average)
- Artillery: 23 (above average).
Jonathan notes that losses on this scale are unsustainable and that this is forcing the Russians to make changes to their tactics. He highlights a recent prisoner exchange where it appears that 103 Russian conscripts from Kursk were immediately sent back to the front line with no rehabilitation. He hypothesises that this may be a reflection of how well the Ukrainians treat their POWs rather than an indication that Russia is running out of troops, but concedes that this is unlikely.
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Andrew Perpetua: Analysis of Russian and Ukrainian Equipment Losses - Ratio 3:1
🎦 03:00-06:22⏩
Jonathan shares analysis of Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses from Andrew Perpetua which indicates that Russian losses are three times higher than Ukrainian losses: Ukrainian Losses:
- Nothing of particularly high value lost
- Artillery: various damaged/destroyed
- Tanks: 1x T-64 destroyed and 1x damaged
- APCs and MRAPS: mainly Western provided - 1 x Humvee destroyed, 1 x FV103 Spartan (UK) probably damaged, 5 x Kirpi, Kozak MRAPS destroyed/abandoned and 1 x Kozak damaged.
- Jonathan also points out the use of purple decoy trees to resemble military equipment in an attempt to exaggerate losses inflicted.
Russian Losses:
- Command and Control vehicle destroyed (could result in loss of high ranking officials, intelligence etc)
- Brem-1 recovery vehicle destroyed
- 3 x Artillery systems destroyed (2x Grad and Uragan MLRS - a good result for Ukraine)
- 50 x Tanks abandoned/destroyed - most unidentifiable due to the level of destruction
- 1 x BTR-82AT captured by Ukraine
- Numerous BMP2 and BMP3 infantry fighting vehicles abandoned/destroyed in the Kursk Oblast (believed to be 51st Airborne VDV units operating near Ludimivka).
- Numerous other equipment losses - Ural trucks, pickup trucks, UAZ, motorcycles, military trucks, buggies and ATVs.
Jonathan concludes that this has been a bad few days for Russia in terms of equipment losses.
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Luhansk: Increase in desertions and child soldier recruitment
🎦 06:22-06:43⏩
Tim White:
- Unverified reports that the number of desertions and refuseniks has increased in occupied Luhansk.
- Ukraine has opened 11 criminal cases into the alleged recruitment of child soldiers by Russian paramilitary organisations in occupied territories.
Kursk: Ukrainian Airborne assault destroys Russian Convoy (14 vehicles)
🎦 06:43-07:07⏩
- Ukrainian Airborne troops report the destruction of a Russian convoy (14 vehicles) in Kursk.
- Losses include 5x Airborne Combat Vehicles, 1 x tank, 1 x APC and dozens of Russian troops.
- Jonathan believes that this is likely related to the 51st Airborne VDV operating near Ludimivka in the Kursk region. Geolocated footage of the assault has been shared online but not by Jonathan.
Crimea: Ukrainian Special Forces attack on Russian gas rig (footage released)
🎦 07:07-08:25⏩
- On 10th-11th September Ukrainian Special forces attacked Russian gas rigs in Crimea that had been occupied by Russia in 2014.
- Russians claimed to have sunk 8-10 Ukrainian boats and that the mission had been a disaster.
- Footage of the attack has now been released by Ukrainian Military Intelligence (HUR) which shows the gas rig being hit and a Russian Su-34SM fighter jet being shot down by a MANPAD.
Ukraine: US GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb destroys building - possible Russian troop casualties
🎦 08:25-09:16⏩
- Video footage shows a Ukrainian Air Force strike using a US-supplied GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) that destroys a building.
- Jonathan believes that the building may have been used to house Russian paratroopers (unclear) - this footage is separate to the previous item.
Rostov: Wildfires cause havoc - shortage of firefighters
🎦 09:16-10:13⏩
- Tim White reports on wildfires in the Rostov region of Russia (borders Ukraine).
- Local reports indicate that there is a shortage of firefighters and equipment.
- Jonathan notes that conscripts have historically been used to fight wildfires as part of their duties. Since the invasion of Ukraine started, this has been an increasing problem for Russia as there aren't enough firefighters available to tackle wildfires.
Ukraine: Overnight drone and missile attack
🎦 10:13-10:47⏩
Overnight Russian attacks:
- 14x Shahed drones (10 intercepted)
- 2x Iskander ballistic missiles (not intercepted)
- 1x Kh-59/69 cruise missile (1 intercepted)
Donetsk: Slovyansk Thermal Plant hit by Russian ballistic missile
🎦 10:47-11:26⏩
- Russian ballistic missile strike on Slovyansk Thermal Power plant in Donetsk Oblast this morning.
- Casualties reported.
- Power cuts in Slovyansk, Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk.
- Shelling also reported in Mykhailivka.
Kharkiv: Residential building hit - 28 casualties
🎦 11:26-12:07⏩
- A Russian missile strike has hit a residential building in Kharkiv.
- 28 civilian casualties reported including 3 children.
- Jonathan expresses his frustration that the US is not allowing Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia in retaliation for these attacks on civilian targets.
Ukraine: Zelensky - Russia expends huge amounts of munitions in one week
🎦 12:07-12:33⏩
- Zelensky reports that this week alone Russia has used 800 aerial bombs, 300 attack drones and 30 missiles against Ukraine.
Russia: Drone attacks
🎦 12:33-13:26⏩
- Russia claims to have been attacked by 29 drones overnight.
- 15 shot down over Bryansk, 5 over Kursk, 4 over Smolensk, 2 over Oryol and 1 each over Belgorod, Kaluga and Rostov.
- Footage shows an explosion at a gas pipeline at a metallurgical plant in Nizhny Tagil in the Sverdlovsk region - extensive damage. Jonathan speculates that this is likely to be Ukrainian retaliation for the attack on the Black Sea grain export ship.
Luhansk: Large explosion
🎦 13:26-13:38⏩
Footage shows a large explosion and secondary cookoffs in Luhansk - no further details.
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Black Sea: Russia attacks commercial cargo ship - US "Condemnation"
🎦 13:38-14:49⏩
- US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink condemns Russia's attack on a civilian cargo ship in the Black Sea and calls it a "blatant violation of international law".
- Jonathan is frustrated by the lack of action from the West - he believes that "condemnation" achieves nothing and that Putin sees it as a green light. He believes that the US should use this as an opportunity to deter further Russian aggression (e.g. allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia).
Kursk: Russian offensive in Kursk Salient stalls (Glushkovo Bridgehead) - War Translators/Dmitry
🎦 14:49-17:36⏩
- War Translators/Dmitry: Russian sources report increasing pressure on Russian positions from two sides in the Glushkovo bridgehead on the Kursk salient. The Russian counter-offensive near Koronovo has also stalled.
- Jonathan explains that the Ukrainians are fighting on two fronts - defending the salient and attacking Russian positions to the South of the salient on the other side of the river (near the villages of Medvezhi, Noviput, Obuvka, Vasylivka). This is a distraction from the main offensive and is forcing Russia to bring in reserves.
- Jonathan points out that one of the maps being used is already outdated (but better than others).
Russia: Starlink outage as fraudulently registered devices are deactivated
🎦 17:36-20:19⏩
- Military correspondent Sapunkov (reported by War Translators/Dmitry) reports on the mass shutdown of Starlink devices being used by Russian forces in Ukraine.
- It appears that these devices had been registered in Europe (to get around export restrictions) but have been deactivated as they have been in use outside the country of registration for more than 90 days. There are reports that Starlink dishes registered in Germany have been disconnected.
- Jonathan speculates that pressure from the US and EU may be behind the shutdowns.
Wrap up
🎦 20:19-20:23⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and signs off.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
00:16 - What does "manned a match" mean? Is this a typo?
17:10 "Access to the workers settlement of Galushkovko" - is this a reference to a type of settlement in Ukraine? I'm not familiar with this term.
17:47 - I'm not sure I understand the reference to "distractions in the rear". Is this a British saying?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is a multi-part video so I need to remember to capture this in the XML. The topics in this video seem to be mainly military focused - it looks like a busy 24-48 hours on the front line. I need to watch out for Ukrainian place names as these are often mispelled in the transcript and remember to use the Ukrainian spellings. I'll need to pay particular attention to Jonathan's insights on the significance of some of the news. There's a few things I don't understand - I'll add those to the Queries section at the end.
