Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update, Bakhmut Focus
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"It's all about momentum and then the Russians will eventually, you know, hold the north here, cut off the supply routes and then put pressure on Bakhmut itself by a larger encirclement."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides the latest update on Russian losses according to Ukrainian reports, with the usual caveats about accuracy. Key losses include:
- 590 liquidated personnel (an uptick)
- 17 tanks, 17 APCs (likely material being hit rather than on the battlefield)
- 4 artillery systems, 3 MLRS
- 3 helicopters (in addition to 2 lost in recent days, totaling 5 - a significant loss of capability if crews also lost)
📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Potential Ukrainian War Crime Investigation
Ukraine is investigating a potential war crime where 6 people expressing intent to surrender to Ukrainian forces were allegedly shot. Jonathan contrasts Ukraine's transparency in looking into this with Russia's complete denial of 50,000+ potential war crimes on their side. He sees this as an important moral difference between the two sides.
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Russian Air Losses and Shelling
- Ukraine shot down a Russian Ka-52 helicopter and Orlan-10 drone on Sunday
- Russia carried out 144 strikes on Sumy region, injuring a 13-year-old girl and 6 others by shelling a market with S-300 missiles
- Jonathan expects to see more Russian use of S-300s in a ground-to-ground capacity as cruise missile stocks run low
Potential New Russian Mobilization
Reports suggest Russia is preparing to mobilize an additional 500,000 conscripts in January. While their quality and equipment is uncertain, the sheer numbers present a challenge for Ukraine, as seen with Russia's willingness to sacrifice waves of soldiers for small gains in Bakhmut. Jonathan notes Western armies would not use such tactics.
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Russian Propaganda vs Reality
Jonathan shares an example of Russian propaganda claiming to have destroyed an American HIMARS radar system. However, the image used actually shows a Russian radar system destroyed by Ukraine months ago, according to Ukraine Weapons Tracker. This highlights the disinformation from Russian sources.
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Ukrainian Air Force Strikes and Aid
- Ukrainian Air Force made 17 strikes on Russian troop and equipment concentrations and 3 strikes on anti-aircraft missile system positions
- Pentagon announced training for 500 Ukrainian soldiers per month on M2A2 Bradleys, suggesting plans for more vehicle provisions
- However, concessions made by Kevin McCarthy to far-right Republicans to secure House Speaker role may include cutting aid to Ukraine, which is concerning
Frontline Updates - Kupyansk to Kreminna
Not much to report on the northeastern front lines. Russians claim to have shot down 2 Ukrainian jets (Su-24 and Su-27) in Kharkiv/Izium area but this is unconfirmed. Positional battles continue with no major changes:
- Repelled attacks at Stelmakhivka and Bilohorivka
- Ongoing fighting over gully area north of Chervonopopivka
- Slow Ukrainian progress towards Kreminna
Bakhmut Area
The Bakhmut area is the focus of intense fighting as Russians make advances:
- Russians have made gains in Soledar, now controlling ~80% of the city according to some Ukrainian sources
- Heaviest fighting is in the central area near the salt mine museum
- Wagner forces have broken through in some areas as Ukraine rushes in reinforcements
- If Soledar falls, it will help Russia pressure Bakhmut from the north
- Fighting also reported in Krasna Hora and Pidhorodne as Russians attempt to surround Soledar
- In Bakhmut itself, incremental Russian gains on eastern and southern outskirts (Opytne)
- Overall the situation looks difficult for Ukraine as Russia applies pressure from multiple directions
- However, Jonathan notes that even if Bakhmut falls, it will be a pyrrhic victory for Russia that may exhaust their ability to advance further
Southern Front - Donetsk to Zaporizhzhia
Not much new to report on the southern front lines other than ongoing fighting and shelling in familiar areas:
- Clashes around Marinka, Pobjeda, Novomykhailivka
- Shelling of Vuhledar, Vodiane, Prechystivka, Bohoyavlenka with no injuries
- Fighting continues on Kinburn Spit under difficult weather conditions as Ukraine attempts to recapture it
Wrap up
Jonathan notes the update was mostly focused on the Bakhmut area given the intensity of fighting there. He thanks his supporters and members, and reminds viewers they can support his work and show support for Ukraine by visiting the UA Supporter website. He appreciates everyone's kindness and will provide another update later.
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