Ukraine War Up. EXTRA: Bakmut Withdrawal & Calculations, Defences & Motorbikes
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"Imagine being one of those people or a unit of those people that, you know, you understand this, you understand that there is this calculation going on and you just a sacrificial number that your entire life has come down to you being fed into this meat grinder for good for good reason you understand the reasoning and you agree with the reasoning but you're the one that's there and you've got a really high probability of dying you are dying so that five others die on the opposing side this isn't the kind of to me this is heroism right if you are the person that decides to do that this is true heroism"
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an introduction, explaining this video is the second half of one recorded the previous day. He mentions having a busy day on Sunday so may not be able to do an extra video. He hopes viewers still get something out of this video even though it's not the finished product.
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Bakhmut withdrawal considerations
Jonathan shares a thread from Mick Ryan discussing the battle of Bakhmut and considerations for a potential Ukrainian withdrawal:
- The battle has raged since August 2022 with massive resources expended by Russia
- A Ukrainian withdrawal may soon be necessary to preserve forces
- Holding Bakhmut has had political value for both sides but allowed Ukraine to attrit Russian forces
- Russia has invested a lot for a town with little strategic value
- Planning considerations for a withdrawal include deception, sequencing the withdrawal, disrupting Russian interference, and effective command & control
- A successful withdrawal requires a senior commander with excellent tactical skills and terrain knowledge
- If Russia captures Bakhmut, they gain rubble with no infrastructure to support forces
- Ukraine will withdraw to defensible positions around Kramatorsk they have prepared for years
- While Russia wants a short-term victory, their actions contradict Putin's claims of patience to outlast the West
The human cost of military calculations
Jonathan muses on the human cost behind military calculations like in Bakhmut. Generals have to make decisions abstracting away from the individuals involved. But each Ukrainian soldier being "fed into the meat grinder" is a real person with a life, family and friends. Those who understand the reasoning but still sacrifice themselves are exhibiting true heroism, even if their individual stories are lost amidst the thousands. It's important to remember the human element behind the numbers and calculations.
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Russian defensive fortifications in southern Ukraine
Jonathan highlights a map shared by Brady Afric on Twitter showing Russian trenches and defensive fortifications being built across occupied southern Ukraine, especially leading to Crimea. While the map shows geolocated data points, in reality the trenches likely extend further. It provides useful open-source intelligence on Russian defensive preparations.
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Ukrainian special forces soldier on a motorbike
An image is shown of a Ukrainian special forces soldier on a mission riding a motorbike equipped with weapons including an anti-tank guided missile. Jonathan suggests a whole unit equipped like this could be advantageous for mobility and firepower, similar to other improvised fighting vehicles like dune buggies, even if they lack protection.
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Wrap up
Jonathan concludes the video by recommending a playlist on his YouTube channel featuring three high-quality documentaries and a TED talk related to the war in Ukraine. He appreciates the support from his viewers and gives a shout-out to new channel members. He acknowledges he needs to create more members-only content but is trying to do as much as humanly possible with limited time. Jonathan thanks the audience and signs off.
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