Ukraine Conflict (202311102): Full Frontline Update
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"I think fighting is going to continue over the course of the winter. The weather is going to slow tempo of operations, but it's not going to stop."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the situation along the frontlines in Ukraine as of 2nd November 2023. He reminds viewers to check the map key if unsure what the lines mean.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeastern Frontline (Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna)
- According to Syriac Maps, the Russian army has recaptured some positions south of Liman Pershi and north of Sinkivka in the last 3 days, though these claims have been made and rolled back before.
- The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes no significant changes along this frontline.
- In an interview, George Barros from ISW expresses concern about a potential new major Russian offensive in northeast Ukraine towards Kupyansk, which some Russian military journalists have referred to as potentially becoming a "Bakhmut 2.0".
Eastern Frontline (Bakhmut)
- Syriac Maps indicates Russian gains along the M03/E40 highway north of Bakhmut, which is a worry for Ukrainians as it threatens their defensive positions if any of the three key areas fall.
- Over the last 5 days, Russia has recaptured the forest belt south of the Behivka reservoir and some positions northeast of Orokovo-Vasilyevka according to Syriac Maps, which Deep State Map also shows.
- Andrew Perpetua believes the Russians will focus their attack on northern Bakhmut and are building up forces for this.
- To the south, Deep State Map and Military Land indicate Ukrainian forces have cleared Russian positions along the railway embankment north of Klishchiivka and advanced about 300m north, likely entrenching these new positions.
Avdiivka
- The situation around Avdiivka remains unclear, with conflicting reports of Ukrainian counterattacks to the north near Krasnohorivka and Russian advances from the south towards Vesele and Severne.
- Rebar, a pro-Russian source, claims Russian forces made gains northwest of Krasnohorivka along the railway and south of Avdiivka towards Severne.
- The status of reported Ukrainian counterattacks north of Krasnohorivka is uncertain, with some suggesting they may have been repelled after initial advances.
- Russian pressure from the south of Avdiivka risks cutting the 0542 supply road to the west if they continue to make incremental gains.
Southern Donetsk & Zaporizhzhia Frontlines
- Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces south of Nova Mykhailivka, potentially indicating an advance, though the area remains contested.
- President Zelenskyy reported a new Russian attack attempt towards Vuhledar, with at least 10 pieces of Russian equipment destroyed according to the 72nd Brigade. The area is likely heavily mined by Ukrainians.
- Minor Ukrainian advances continue west of Velyka Novosilka in the Neskuchne area.
- In Zaporizhzhia, Syriac Maps notes small Ukrainian advances west of Robotyne as part of a slow, attritional push to fix Russian forces in the area.
- Fighting continues in and around Krynky, north of Melitopol, with Russian sources claiming Ukrainian attacks near Polohy, Pishchenivka and Krynky itself. Ukrainians have likely not fully captured Krynky yet.
Wrap up
Jonathan concludes by noting the continued Ukrainian pressure along the Zaporizhzhia frontline and the importance of first-person view drones and TOS-1A thermobaric artillery systems in the conflict. He references Perun's recent video analysing various "game changing" weapon systems and their impact and scarcity.
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