Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:28⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to an ATP Geopolitics video - a Ukraine War News Update for 4th June 2024. He apologises for the length of recent videos and will try to make this one quicker!
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
General Staff Report - High Russian losses for 3rd June
🎦 00:28-02:07⏩
Jonathan reports very high Russian losses according to the General Staff figures released on 3rd June 2024 - 1290 personnel (a very high figure), 15 tanks (above average), 18 armoured personnel vehicles (about average), 65 artillery systems (phenomenal, a record-breaking seven day rolling average), 2 MLRS and 3 anti-aircraft warfare systems. He notes that this continues the trend of high Russian losses in May. He credits these figures to Dell (link in the description) along with Bill's dashboard. Jonathan questions how sustainable these losses are for the Russians and notes that whilst the Ukrainians are also taking losses, he believes that overall the Russians are suffering more.
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Andrew Perpetua's Russian Equipment Loss List - 5:1 Loss Ratio in favour of Ukraine
🎦 02:07-06:13⏩
Jonathan reviews Andrew Perpetua's latest equipment loss list for 3rd June 2024, which shows a 5:1 loss ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses. Ukrainian losses:
- Excavator (Jonathan notes that he has seen this video - the excavator was digging a large tank ditch when it was hit by a drone, he believes it was only damaged and that the operator got out). He refers to a recent discussion with Andrew Perpetua about this video, who said that it is good to see proper fortification work, although it is risky to undertake near the frontlines as both sides target construction vehicles.
- A few tanks, BMPs and Humvees. Jonathan notes that these are not high value losses and that there are no air defence systems, radar systems, planes on the list - he believes Ukraine will take this.
Russian Losses:
- 2 x S-400 Transporter Erector launchers and 2 x support vehicles. Jonathan notes that they will discuss these in more detail later and that another S-300/400 system was also apparently destroyed yesterday (03/06/2024).
- Buk-M1-2 air defence system (damaged)
- Surveillance and comms equipment
- Radar installations (Jonathan says that these losses are really high and are probably equivalent to the Ukrainian losses for the entire previous week.
- Caster 2E1 command vehicle and radar (Jonathan describes this as a rare and expensive piece of kit).
- 992 N6A Radar and another radar system.
- BREM-1 Recovery system.
- Excavator
- Several artillery systems (mainly self propelled).
- A number of tanks including T-72 variants with makeshift cages on top to protect them from drones.
- Numerous Infantry Fighting vehicles (mainly destroyed or abandoned).
- A large number of trucks
- Civilian vehicles.
Jonathan points out that the air defence system losses alone completely swamp the entirety of the Ukrainian losses. He also notes the damage to the command and control/support vehicle for the S-400 is very significant as this will likely impact the entire system - these vehicles contain complex electronics and radar equipment which cannot be fixed easily.
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High Russian Personnel Losses - HIMARS strike kills 200 in Kherson (November 2023), Reports of Russian suicides and the largest surrender of the war in Vovchansk (Kharkiv)
🎦 06:19-11:20⏩
Jonathan discusses a video from November 2023 that showed HIMARS strikes in Kherson killing up to 200 Russian personnel. He points out that although the General Staff report today reported 1290 personnel losses, these high daily figures are not unrealistic as a small number of strikes can have a significant impact on personnel numbers. Jonathan refers to a video he has seen of a large group of around 60 Russian soldiers surrendering to Ukrainian forces near Vovchansk (Kharkiv). He believes this is the largest frontline surrender of the war. He cites a report from Deepstate (which he considers to be a generally reliable source), who report that the Russians were ordered to advance on Vovchansk and came under heavy Ukrainian machine gun, mortar and FPV drone attack. Rather than continue to fight they surrendered. Jonathan states that he has started to describe the Russian offensive in Kharkiv as an operational disaster. He also cites Trent Talenko, who has said that Ukrainian drone footage suggests there have been a number of Russian soldier suicides. Jonathan states that he has seen some of this footage, describing it as "war porn" and "horrific" but acknowledges that this is a reflection of how bad morale is. He goes on to discuss how Russians genuinely believe that if they are captured by Ukrainian forces they will be tortured and killed. He believes that they have been brainwashed by Russian propaganda, which has told them that capture is a fate worse than death, with propagandists even suggesting that suicide is preferable. Jonathan believes this explains why more Russians aren't surrendering despite facing heavy losses.
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More evidence of low Russian morale - Slovakians fighting for Russia captured by Ukraine, Reports of heavy Russian casualties in the Serebryansky forest, Effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV drones in Kharkiv
🎦 11:20-15:35⏩
Jonathan discusses a number of items which point to low Russian morale:
- Reports that Slovakian fighters have been captured by Ukrainian forces in Ukraine (he wonders what their interviews will reveal).
- Cites reports from David D (who Jonathan advises should be taken with a pinch of salt) and Russian sources that there have been heavy Russian casualties in the Serebryansky forest, with many troops killed and captured. He notes that the Ukrainians are finding it tough going in this area.
Jonathan highlights a video by PS01 that went viral yesterday (03/06/2024) showing Russian infantry being ambushed in northern Kharkiv. He notes that this is representative of a lot of the activity taking place in this region, with reports that Ukrainian use of FPV drones is causing significant problems for the Russians. He states that the Russians are trying to counter the FPV drones with electronic warfare and jamming but are having more success jamming larger drones such as Mavics than FPVs. He speculates as to why this might be the case, suggesting that it might be to do with the way that they are used (i.e. the smaller FPV drones may already be in the air and closer to the target when they attack, meaning there is less time for them to be jammed). Jonathan concludes this section by discussing the video - the Russian troops are ambushed by small arms fire and take cover in a trench. They are then finished off by three FPV drones in quick succession. Jonathan notes that Ukraine is using FPV drones in a similar way to how they would have used mortars or artillery previously, using them to quickly and accurately target enemy troop positions. He speculates that this proactive use of drones is more effective than having to wait for artillery to be deployed and the target to be identified and then attacked.
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Destruction of more Russian S-300/400 systems north of Belgorod and a rare Castor 2E2 radar station.
🎦 15:35-21:25⏩
Jonathan discusses the destruction of further S-300/400 Air Defence Systems north of Belgorod which he believes are being used to launch missiles at Kharkiv in Ukraine. He states that these launches happen so quickly that Ukraine does not have time to intercept them, so they need to be taken out at source. Jonathan believes that Ukraine has been asking for permission to target Russian military equipment within Russia for a long time but has only recently been given approval. He cites the following:
- The destruction of the S-300/400 system reported yesterday (03/06/2024). He states that 2 launchers were destroyed along with the command and control vehicle.
- The destruction of a rare and incredibly high value Castor 2E2 radar station by FPV drones.
- The possible destruction of a further system near the village of Gostischevo, Belgorod (awaiting confirmation)
- Unconfirmed reports of a system being destroyed in Shebekino, Belgorod.
Jonathan speculates that the recent reduction in Russian air activity over the border (which he has heard has been reduced by up to half) may be a result of these strikes. He believes that Western and Ukrainian intelligence agencies are working together to locate and systematically destroy these systems. Jonathan believes that Russia will not be able to replace these systems easily (if at all), comparing it to their issues with tank production. He speculates that Russia may not even be able to manufacture some of the components and that they are unable to source them from abroad. Jonathan believes that this is really significant, as it paves the way for Ukraine to use F-16 fighter jets (once delivered) without the threat of being targeted by Russian air defence systems or air to air missiles. He concludes by saying that he doesn't know if this is a turning point, but that it is certainly troubling for the Russians.
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Russian equipment losses in Bilohorivka, Svatove and Kreminna
🎦 21:25-22:09⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia has lost 3 tanks near Bilohorivka (just south west of Kreminna on the frontlines) as a result of Ukrainian FPV drone strikes.
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Update on Russian and Ukrainian Equipment losses in Kharkiv - 34 Ukrainian vs 48 Russian
🎦 22:09-24:21⏩
Jonathan provides an update on equipment losses in Kharkiv, noting that whilst Russia initially had the advantage, Ukraine has now destroyed more Russian equipment. He states that the current figures are 34 Ukrainian vehicles and 48 Russian vehicles. Jonathan believes that the Ukrainians were initially caught off guard by the Russian assault and rushed equipment such as Bohdana self-propelled howitzers to the area. They then suffered losses to Lancet loitering munitions before stabilising and pushing the Russians back. He believes that the arrival of more Ukrainian units with FPV drone capability (such as the Kraken unit, Magyar's Birds and the 42nd Brigade) along with a change in tactics was key to this. Jonathan notes that whilst the Russians have lost a variety of equipment, there are not as many attacking vehicles as he would expect given that they are on the offensive, supporting the claims that the Russians are conducting meat grinder assaults, with many units attacking on foot. He questions why the Russians are doing this, speculating that it might be because of a lack of available equipment rather than by choice.
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Large fire in Kyiv warehouse, Jonathan speculates about the possibility of Russian sabotage
🎦 24:21-25:30⏩
Jonathan reports that there was a large fire in a 2000 square metre warehouse in Kyiv yesterday (03/06/2024). He notes that whilst the cause is not yet known, he believes that fire is one of the easiest forms of sabotage, suggesting that Russia could be targeting Ukrainian infrastructure using agents within Ukraine. He believes that Russia has been undertaking similar activities within Russia and that it is relatively straightforward to pay individuals to carry out such tasks.
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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says that Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory are not escalatory, Overnight drone and missile attacks
🎦 25:30-27:51⏩
Jonathan reports that the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told Antenne Bayern radio station yesterday that Ukraine's use of Western supplied weapons to strike targets in Russia will not contribute to escalation. He praises Scholz for these comments. Jonathan reports a relatively quiet night in terms of missile and drone attacks.
- 4 x Iranian made Shahed drones were launched by Russia - 2 were shot down.
- A couple of Iskander cruise missiles were shot down. Jonathan doesn't know how many were launched.
Jonathan states that Dnipro was hit, resulting in civilian casualties (8 at the time of reporting) - a 1 month old baby boy, a 17 year old boy, a 68 year old man and 3 women aged 32, 36 and 56. Jonathan reports Ukrainian strikes on:
- A ferry crossing in Crimea.
- An oil terminal in Krasnodar Krai.
He also notes that Russian milbloggers are concerned about the threat to their air defence systems from Western supplied weapons such as Atakums ballistic missiles, calling for an urgent review of Russian air defence strategy. Jonathan believes that it's too little too late for the Russians.
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Andrew Perpetua discusses the significance of changes to the "equilibrium" of the war, rather than focusing on constants
🎦 27:51-31:39⏩
Jonathan discusses Andrew Perpetua's recent observations on the significance of changes to the equilibrium of the war, rather than focusing on constants. He explains this by using the example of kittens and a bucket of water on a set of scales. Initially they are balanced, before one of the kittens jumps off, causing the scales to tip in favour of the bucket of water. Jonathan says that you can't blame the water for being too heavy - the change happened because the kitten jumped off (i.e. the equilibrium changed). He applies this to the current situation, pointing out that Russia's decision to send hundreds more vehicles to Ukraine doesn't represent a change. Russia has been doing this from the start and is losing vehicles at an unsustainable rate (he quotes a figure of 16 a day), therefore this is a constant. Similarly, people have pointed to Russia's larger ammunition stocks, but Jonathan points out that this has always been the case and ignores the changes that are happening - Ukraine is constantly upgrading its military capabilities whereas Russia is degrading and is unable (or unwilling) to adapt. The one exception to this that Jonathan has observed is Russia's adoption of US style JDAM guided glide bombs.
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Discussion about whether the US is deliberately drip-feeding Ukraine with Military aid to prolong the war and degrade the Russian military, Jonathan believes this is more likely to be a consequence of attempts to avoid escalation rather than deliberate policy.
🎦 31:39-33:19⏩
Jonathan discusses a comment from a viewer, who asks if the US is deliberately drip-feeding military aid to Ukraine (just enough to keep them in the fight) to prolong the war and bleed Russia dry. He refers to the example of Atakums missiles, which some are now saying could have been provided to Ukraine much earlier in the war. He highlights comments blaming Jake Sullivan (US National Security Advisor) for this. Jonathan believes that this drip-feed approach (whether deliberate or otherwise) is having the desired effect of degrading the Russian military much more fundamentally, pointing out that the impact on personnel and equipment losses will be felt for a generation. He doesn't believe that this is the primary intention of the US and its allies, arguing that it is more likely to be a consequence of the West's desire to avoid escalation.
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More strikes by Ukraine inside Russia and occupied territories - Skadovsk (Kherson), Belgorod and Crimea
🎦 33:19-34:32⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has conducted further strikes inside Russia and occupied territories:
- Skadovsk (Southern Kherson Oblast) - Jonathan states that something big was hit.
- Belgorod Oblast - An ammunition depot caught fire near the village of Gremichi as a result of an explosion at a Russian military base. This resulted in 7 Russian personnel being injured.
Ukraine recaptures more territory in Vovchansk, Russians mining the bodies of their own dead, UK Military Chief confident Ukraine will win
🎦 34:32-36:02⏩
Jonathan discusses several items:
- Ukraine is pushing back Russian forces in the Vovchansk area. He cites geolocated footage that confirms Ukraine has recaptured significant territory east of the town and north of the Vovcha river.
- Russian forces have been mining the bodies of their own dead with anti-tank mines, making it incredibly dangerous for Ukrainian forces as they liberate territory. Jonathan describes this as horrible.
- The UK Military Chief Admiral Sir Ben Key has said that he is hugely confident that Ukraine will win the war.
Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen calls for the West to lift restrictions on arms deliveries to Ukraine
🎦 36:02-37:29⏩
Jonathan welcomes comments made by the former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen on Fox News calling on the West to lift all caveats on weapons deliveries to Ukraine. Rasmussen says that Ukraine cannot be expected to fight with one arm tied behind its back. Jonathan agrees with this statement.
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US authorities prevent Scott Ritter from travelling to Russia, Jonathan believes this is justified, Discussion about limitations on free speech and what constitutes spying.
🎦 37:29-43:14⏩
Jonathan reports that Scott Ritter (former US Marine Corps Intelligence Officer turned Russian Propagandist) was prevented from boarding a flight from New York to Istanbul. Jonathan states that Russian state media TASS reported that Ritter's passport was seized by US authorities. Jonathan condemns Ritter, describing him as a deplorable human being and a prominent pro-Russian propagandist. He goes on to question when free speech becomes spying, arguing that whilst Ritter claims he has the right to free speech, what he is doing is tantamount to spying and that the US authorities are justified in their actions. He questions what the difference is between a Russian agent being paid to spread disinformation and what Ritter does (noting that Ritter has previously worked for and been paid by RT, the Russian state broadcaster).
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Further evidence that US is cracking down on Russian Propagandists - Wyatt Reed from the Grayzone also targeted, Johnny Miller "accidentally" reveals location in Crimea
🎦 43:14-44:20⏩
Jonathan reports that the US authorities appear to be cracking down on a network of Russian propagandists:
- Wyatt Reed (who works for the Grayzone, a US based news organisation that has been accused of receiving funding from Iran and Russia) has been targeted by the Washington Post.
- Johnny Miller ( a British blogger and journalist who has spread Russian propaganda) has had his social media accounts suspended and is the subject of a petition to have his British citizenship revoked after he accidentally revealed the location of a Russian target in Crimea during a live stream.
Jonathan laughs at this, sarcastically thanking Miller for his assistance in helping Ukraine.
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Wrap up
🎦 44:20-44:50⏩
Jonathan finishes by showing footage of a Ukrainian truck that has been badly damaged in an attack, highlighting the importance of donations to organisations that provide trucks and equipment to Ukraine.
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"It's not to say that the Ukrainians aren't suffering, particularly along the eastern front line, of course. But things are troubling for the Russians, I think."
