Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia is gaining more territory, has more territory than it did at the beginning of the war. But in the same way that Germany had more territory, much more territory at the end of the war than it did at the beginning, it lost the war at a point where it had much more territory than it previously had."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:10⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new Ukraine War News Update, the first part of the daily update for March 4, 2024.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Reports Heavy Russian Losses
🎦 00:10-01:16⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's report of Russian losses, highlighting the high number of personnel (1,150), tanks (8), armoured personnel vehicles (21), and artillery systems (22) lost. He notes the significance of the APV losses, suggesting ongoing Russian attacks and the high attrition rate of such offensives. He questions the extent of Ukrainian losses.
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Ukrainian Losses Closer to Parity
🎦 01:16-02:42⏩
Jonathan examines Ukrainian losses based on Andrew Perpetua's analysis of open-source information. He notes a more balanced loss ratio compared to the previous two days, though acknowledges some uncertainties. He outlines significant Ukrainian losses, including an M1 Abrams tank (leaving Ukraine with only 30), a Swedish Stridsvagn 122 main battle tank, and other armoured vehicles.
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Visual Confirmation of Losses and Russian Equipment
🎦 02:42-04:26⏩
Jonathan provides further details on visually confirmed losses, highlighting a Russian Mohajir-6 drone (Iranian-made) and a Ukrainian mobile tactical direction-finding system destroyed by Russian special forces. He revisits the previous day's discussion about the loss of two Russian T-90M tanks, confirming the destruction of the second one. Jonathan observes a slight disadvantage for Ukraine due to losing high-value equipment.
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Ukrainian Bridgehead in Kherson: A Costly Distraction for Russia
🎦 04:26-06:14⏩
Jonathan discusses a Russian paramedic's video highlighting heavy Russian losses near the Ukrainian bridgehead in the Kherson region. He points out the strategic advantage of the bridgehead for Ukraine, as it acts as a lure for Russian forces, resulting in significant Russian losses for minimal Ukrainian troop deployment. He criticizes the paramedic for questioning the "mean" tactics of Ukrainian forces and drones.
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Russian Offensive Using Chinese "Desert Cross" Vehicles
🎦 06:16-08:42⏩
Jonathan analyzes a Russian offensive near Kreminna, where Russian forces deployed Chinese-supplied "Desert Cross" vehicles. He notes the vehicles' limited utility in muddy conditions and questions their use in a major attack, speculating about potential advantages or limitations in Russian equipment.
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Russian Drone Attacks: Bereslav and the Targeting of Civilians
🎦 08:42-11:07⏩
Jonathan addresses a Russian drone attack on the city of Beryslav in the Kherson region. He recounts Andrew Perpetua's earlier observations regarding the use of Beryslav as a training ground for Russian drone operators targeting civilians. Jonathan emphasizes the vulnerability of civilians in these areas due to the absence of Ukrainian military personnel and condemns the attacks as terrorism. He criticizes those who support Russia despite these actions.
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Railway Bridge in Russia's Samara Oblast Blown Up
🎦 11:07-12:36⏩
Jonathan reports a Ukrainian claim of responsibility for blowing up a railway bridge in Russia's Samara region, disrupting military cargo transport, specifically engineering explosives. He expresses doubt regarding the use of missiles or drones due to range limitations and speculates about partisan involvement. Jonathan praises the effectiveness of such actions deep within Russian territory.
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Russia's Increased Use of Aerial Bombs
🎦 12:37-14:44⏩
Jonathan discusses Zelenskyy's report on Russia's use of munitions, noting the significant number of aerial bombs (400) alongside Shahed drones (50) and missiles (40+). He analyzes the potential implications for future missile and drone attacks, highlighting the importance of aerial bombs to Russia's strategy. Jonathan underscores the challenge posed by these unguided bombs and their role in Russian successes in areas like Avdiivka.
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Russian Bombing of Kurakhove and Ukrainian Strikes
🎦 14:47-16:14⏩
Jonathan reports a Russian bombing in Kurakhove, Donetsk Oblast, resulting in 16 injuries. He highlights the strategic importance of Kurakhove as a target for Russia. He also mentions Ukrainian drone strikes, noting conflicting reports about the number of drones shot down and their effectiveness. Jonathan details attacks on an oil depot in Feodosia and damage to a pumping pipeline.
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Drone Attack on St. Petersburg Oil Terminal
🎦 16:14-17:12⏩
Jonathan reports on a drone attack on an oil terminal in St. Petersburg, highlighting the significance of the target and the size of the explosive device (20 kilograms). He notes the drone's failure to detonate, expressing disappointment from the Ukrainian perspective.
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Attack on Russian Airbase in Primorsko-Akhtarsk
🎦 17:12-18:03⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of a Ukrainian attack on a Russian airbase in Primorsko-Akhtarsk, noting damage to the taxiway and injuries to Russian servicemen. He questions the use of cruise missiles for targeting a runway, speculating about potential targets like the control tower or aircraft. He ponders whether the Russians successfully intercepted the missiles or are downplaying the damage.
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Odessa Drone Attack Aftermath and Putin's "Pointless War"
🎦 18:03-19:02⏩
Jonathan revisits the aftermath of the drone attack in Odessa, revealing a tragic death toll of 12, including a young boy. He expresses his anger and frustration, denouncing the war's pointlessness and Putin's role in the death of innocent civilians.
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NATO Exercises in Finland and Perun's War Assessment
🎦 19:02-22:28⏩
Jonathan reports NATO military drills, Nordic Response 2024, being held near the Russian border in Finland, involving 20,000 personnel and significant military hardware. He connects this to Perun's recent video analysis, highlighting the significance of production capacities and the potential for Ukraine's long-term advantage over Russia. Jonathan compares the situation to Germany's territorial gains during World War II despite ultimately losing the war, emphasizing that current metrics do not necessarily predict the final outcome. He highlights Perun's observation that Russia's territorial gains have come at the cost of strengthening NATO and expanding its borders.
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Ukrainian Intelligence Reports Successful Cyberattack
🎦 22:29-23:24⏩
Jonathan reports a successful cyberattack on the Russian Ministry of Defense servers, attributing it to Ukrainian hackers and praising their efforts in the information war.
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Leaked German Military Conversation: A Hybrid Attack
🎦 23:25-24:38⏩
Jonathan discusses the leaked conversation involving German military personnel discussing Taurus missile deployment and Crimea. He labels it a "hybrid attack" orchestrated by Russia, aiming to undermine Germany and sow discord. He criticizes the German military's naive communication practices and urges a robust response to the security breach.
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Pardoned Russian Criminals Return to Prison
🎦 24:39-25:51⏩
Jonathan highlights the issue of pardoned Russian criminals returning from the front lines and reoffending, citing the case of a convicted murderer who killed again after his release. He criticizes the program's flaws and the potential threat to Russian social cohesion. He notes the policy change requiring returning prisoners to complete their sentences.
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Miss Europe Contestant's Pro-War Behaviour and Social Issues in Russia
🎦 25:51-27:21⏩
Jonathan criticizes the behaviour of a Russian Miss Europe contestant who harassed a Ukrainian girl and made light of the war. He argues that such actions demonstrate the deep divisions within Russian society regarding the war. He references statistics suggesting 25% support the war, 50% remain neutral, and 25% oppose it. Jonathan expresses his disdain for those who vehemently support the Russian war effort.
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Elon Musk Deletes Community Notes, Exposing Free Speech Hypocrisy
🎦 27:21-28:59⏩
Jonathan criticizes Elon Musk for deleting community notes correcting misinformation about NATO on Twitter (now X). He calls out Musk's hypocrisy regarding free speech, arguing that Musk only supports the amplification of his own views and those of his echo chamber.
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"Winter on Fire": A Must-Watch Documentary
🎦 28:59-31:54⏩
Jonathan passionately recommends the documentary "Winter on Fire," praising its portrayal of the Maidan protests and the Ukrainian people's fight for democracy. He draws a powerful metaphor of linking arms to resist autocracy and praises the documentary's availability on YouTube. He reads viewer comments praising the film and shares his own emotional response to it.
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Navalny's Legacy and Russia's Authoritarianism
🎦 31:54-33:25⏩
Jonathan transitions to Alexei Navalny, mentioning the documentary about him and the ongoing tributes at his grave. He condemns the Kremlin's decision to extend the prison sentence of Lilia Chanysheva, the head of Navalny's team in Ufa. Jonathan criticizes Russia's attempts to downplay its imperial ambitions, quoting Medvedev's statement about Russia having "no borders" as evidence of their true intentions.
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Wrap up
🎦 33:25-33:32⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching, asking them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He bids them farewell.
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