Ukraine War Update NEWS (20230823a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"Slowly slowly wins the race but and winning the race is being alive at the end at the finish line you know the hare can absolutely lather it go on you're running really quickly oh you've been you've been blown up by mine whereas the tortoise goes all right that's a trip let's let's let's use our better ranged artillery to take out their artillery okay it's all right i'm not the quickest but you know i'll get there and when i get there do you know what i'll be alive brilliant"
Hello Team!
Jonathan warns there may be some background noise from floorboards being ripped up. He then goes through the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses, noting the high numbers of tanks, APVs and artillery systems destroyed, suggesting there must be a tipping point soon.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
Andrew Perpetua, who tracks visually confirmed losses, reports a "loaf-pocalypse" with many Russian Bukanka trucks destroyed, impacting their logistics. Ukrainian losses are comparatively light. War Spotting also reports sustained pressure on Russian forces, with 70 documented losses including 11 tanks and 29 IFVs in the past week.
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Ukrainian Equipment Losses
Ukraine lost another M1123 ESV engineering vehicle in Zaporizhzhia. A German Marder IFV also got stuck in a trench, highlighting the challenges of the terrain with lattice-work trenches across fields.
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Fires in Russia
Significant fires reported in Russia, including at a construction market in Istra near Moscow and the Chelyabinsk Iron and Steel Works, with orange smoke and unpleasant smells affecting residents. Jonathan notes these fires are happening almost daily.
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Overnight Drone Attacks
- 20 Shahed drones launched at Ukraine overnight, mostly towards Odesa. 11 were shot down, a lower interception rate than usual.
- Hits on production and transshipment complexes in Odesa started a 700 sq m fire. Granaries were also damaged.
- Jonathan sees attacks on grain infrastructure as a war crime, with Russia attacking not just Ukraine but global food supply.
- Explosions in occupied Crimea. Air defences active on the Kerch bridge.
- Moscow also hit by drones overnight, with one shot down and another hitting a building.
Crimean Bridge Protection
In a bizarre move, Russia is reportedly sinking ferries in the Kerch Strait in an attempt to protect the Crimean bridge, possibly from the new underwater drones Ukraine has announced. This desperate measure shows things are not looking good for Russia in Crimea.
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Russian Command Changes
Russian media reports that Surovikin was released from his post as Aerospace Forces commander-in-chief. His whereabouts are unknown amidst rumours he is under house arrest on suspicion of collaborating with Prigozhin. Meanwhile, Prigozhin is "fart-arsing around" in Africa.
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Offensive Analysis
There is much debate over the progress and potential of Ukraine's counteroffensive. A New York Times article suggests American planners are advising Ukraine to concentrate on Melitopol as the key priority and punch through Russian defences even at the cost of higher losses. However, many analysts argue assessing the offensive as "slow" is misguided and Ukraine should avoid pressure to push harder than is feasible. The real measures of success are attriting Russian forces, fixing them in place, and hammering their logistics. Ammunition production, especially for mortars, is crucial to sustain the offensive. F-16 provision is an important signal of long-term support, even if they won't be ready for the current offensive. Jonathan argues Western expectations of quick progress are unreasonable given Ukraine's lack of air superiority. He suggests the apparent slowdown around Bakhmut may indicate Ukraine is sensibly moving resources to higher priority areas in the south.
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Putin's Double?
A video of Putin apparently looking for his watch on the wrong wrist has fuelled speculation he uses body doubles. Putin famously wears his watch on his right wrist, but here instinctively checks his left wrist. Jonathan finds the evidence for Putin doubles quite convincing.
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Wrap up
Jonathan notes he will do a separate piece to analyse the offensive in more depth. He thanks viewers for their support.
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