Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"From Japan to the Arab countries, from Europe to Latin America, we find support for the peace formula, and we continue this work."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video with a cup of tea and welcomes viewers to the Ukraine war news update for 21 May 2023.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 730 liquidated Russian personnel, a high number compared to recent days
- 2 tanks, 16 APCs, 29 artillery systems (a terrible day for Russian artillery), 2 anti-aircraft warfare systems, 21 drones, 12 vehicles/fuel tanks, 2 pieces of special equipment
- Consistent degradation of Russian capacity affecting battlefield capability
Shaheed Drone Attacks
Four Shaheed drones attacked overnight, a lower count than the previous week. It's unclear if this indicates Russia is running low on drones or just taking a break.
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Fighting In and Around Bakhmut
- Alexander Karchenko claims Wagner sustained more casualties fighting in fields on Bakhmut's flanks than inside the city, due to lack of armoured vehicles
- Rob Lee suggests the Wagner model of using convicts mixed with professionals works best in urban terrain; it's less effective in open fields where drones, artillery and machine guns are lethal to unsupported infantry
- Russian losses could be higher now that Ukraine has ceded Bakhmut
Javelin Engagement Footage
Drone footage shows a Javelin missile launched at a Russian vehicle, demonstrating the top-attack capability. At least two APCs were taken out. The footage gives a sense of how effective Javelins are and how close the operator can be to the target.
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Mariupol Airport Strike
- Ukraine reportedly used Storm Shadow missiles to strike a large building by Mariupol airport, killing 30-150 Russian soldiers and destroying military gear
- The airport is used as a staging area to supply Russian troops to Bakhmut
- Storm Shadow cruise missiles are being used effectively for bunker busting
Russian Intercept Claims
Russia claims to have intercepted 12 Storm Shadow cruise missiles, HIMARS rockets, and a US guided bomb. Jonathan is skeptical, noting that Ukrainians struggle to intercept Russian guided bombs, so it's surprising Russia could intercept US ones. Russian claims are often unrealistic.
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Trench Adaptations
Footage shows Russian trenches protected by metal wires/tarp to defend against drone munitions, but a Ukrainian drone still causes damage inside. The effectiveness of these adaptations is debatable.
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Berdyansk Strike
Berdyansk, between Mariupol and Crimea on the Azov Sea coast, was hit overnight. Ukraine is softening targets in the Zaporizhzhia region behind Russian lines.
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Belgorod Fires
Multiple explosions were heard and a fire appears to be burning in the Shebekinsky district of Russia's Belgorod region.
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Odds and Ends
- Authorities rushed to a Krasnodar club after a song with the lyrics "Ukraine is not dead" was sung. The song has been removed from the playlist and the club apologized.
- British-supplied FV432 armoured personnel carriers spotted training in western Ukraine.
Military Aid
- US announces $375 million aid package including HIMARS ammunition, artillery rounds, TOW missiles for Bradleys, Javelin/AT-4 anti-armor systems, bridging systems, medical vehicles, and more
- Italy may train Ukrainian pilots but can't supply F-16s; supports F-16 provision to Ukraine
- Unverified report of Denmark providing 45 F-16s to Ukraine after upgrades in Belgium
- Germany's Rheinmetall wants joint venture with Ukraine to produce Fuchs APCs
- Newspaper doubts EU can provide Ukraine with 1 million shells in a year as promised
Geopolitics
- Zelensky's plane granted overflight rights by India and China en route from Saudi Arabia to G7 in Japan
- Zelensky offers peace formula at G7, meets bilaterally with leaders including Biden, India's Modi, South Korea's Yoon, and Canada's Trudeau
- US and EU tighten sanctions on Russia, targeting companies helping evade restrictions
- China hosts Central Asian summit with impressive ceremony; Russia not invited, loses regional influence
- Putin sanctions perceived Trump enemies in the US like Letitia James and the officer who shot Ashli Babbitt, trying to court MAGA Republicans
- Russia faces worst labor shortage since 1996 due to sanctions, war mobilization, and people fleeing
- Georgia allows Russian flights after 4-year ban; pro-Western Georgians protest the move
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for choosing to spend time with him and encourages them to return to their families as it's Sunday. He appreciates their viewership.
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