Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Why are Russians consistently still going to Crimea ... in the middle of a war when ... Crimea is being increasingly targeted? Just insane!"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:17⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics update on the Ukraine War. Today's video is part one of a bumper news update, focusing on overnight news and other notable developments.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Russian Losses
🎦 00:17-02:52⏩
Jonathan analyses the latest Ukrainian General Staff figures, highlighting significant Russian losses. Key figures include:
- Personnel: 1,300 (A notable increase, signifying successful degradation of Russian troop capacity)
- Tanks: 12 (Above average, positive for Ukrainian efforts)
- Armoured Personnel Vehicles: 15 (On par with average figures)
- Artillery Systems: 51 (Exceptionally high, potentially three times the average)
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 56 (Substantial loss, difficult to sustain consistently)
- Special Equipment: 20 (Considerably high)
Jonathan emphasises that these figures represent human lives lost and criticises the Russian leadership for their disregard for their citizens.
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Oryx/Warspotting: Visual Confirmation of Losses
🎦 02:52-08:45⏩
Jonathan delves into Andrew Perpetua's detailed breakdown of visually confirmed losses, praising his meticulous work.
- Total Losses: 94 Russian losses against 30 Ukrainian losses.
- Ratio: Over three-to-one in favour of Ukraine, even more favourable when considering combat asset losses.
- Combat Asset Loss Ratio: Almost five-to-one, highlighting the effectiveness of Ukrainian operations.
Jonathan analyses footage from Tendar, showcasing the "road of death" near Avdiivka. The video reveals a large number of destroyed Russian vehicles, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and civilian vehicles repurposed for military use. Jonathan observes the increasing use of quads and motorbikes by Russian forces, possibly indicating dwindling supplies of standard military vehicles.
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Discrepancies in Reported vs. Visually Confirmed Artillery Losses
🎦 12:00-15:32⏩
Jonathan discusses the discrepancy between reported artillery losses by the Ukrainian General Staff and the significantly lower numbers visually confirmed by sources like Oryx.
- Jakub Janowski, currently running Oryx, suggests that most artillery losses likely go undocumented due to limitations in visual confirmation, particularly for long-range artillery.
- Jonathan explains that satellite imagery primarily focuses on the frontline, making it harder to visually confirm artillery losses occurring further behind enemy lines.
- Drone footage, another source for confirmation, often prioritises visually engaging targets like tanks, leading to an underrepresentation of artillery strikes.
Jonathan argues that confirmed artillery losses frequently involve shorter-range systems like D-20s and D-30s, which are pushed closer to the front lines due to their limited range and necessitate deployment in areas more susceptible to visual confirmation.
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HIMARS Effectiveness and Cluster Munition Deployment
🎦 15:32-18:46⏩
Jonathan shares an anecdote about a HIMARS vehicle returning from Ukraine for repairs. He quotes USFA Association member General Darrell Williams, who allegedly observed symbols on the HIMARS representing destroyed Russian equipment, with each symbol signifying ten systems, suggesting the vehicle had neutralized 600 Russian assets. Jonathan presents footage appearing to depict Ukrainian forces deploying US-supplied M30 Gimlet rockets with cluster munitions in Zaporizhzhia. He explains the M30's effectiveness against personnel and dispersed equipment, scattering 404 submunitions upon detonation. He notes that the US previously favoured the M31 unitary warhead variant, highlighting the significance of Ukraine receiving the M30 with its renewed cluster munition capability.
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Russian Attacks on Kherson and Ukrainian Rescuers
🎦 18:46-19:52⏩
Jonathan highlights Andrew Perpetua's report on the relentless Russian bombardment of Kherson.
- Perpetua describes the daily barrage from various weapons, including grenades, mortars, drones, aircraft bombs, and rockets, targeting Ukrainian rescuers attempting to aid civilians.
Jonathan condemns these attacks as "war criminal terrorism," emphasizing the absence of military targets in Kherson and the deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure and rescue efforts.
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Russian Missile Strike on Odessa
🎦 19:52-21:07⏩
Jonathan reports on a significant Russian missile attack on Odessa, causing substantial damage to civilian infrastructure, potentially a logistics hub.
- He expresses concern over the gradual destruction of Odessa, a historically and culturally significant Ukrainian city.
- Footage shows a massive plume of smoke rising from the targeted area, emphasizing the attack's scale.
Ukrainian Missile Strike on Crimean Space Communication Center
🎦 21:07-27:36⏩
Jonathan details a significant Ukrainian missile strike using eight ATACMS missiles targeting the Vitino area in Crimea, specifically a Russian Space Communication Center.
- The attack caused large fires confirmed by FIRMS data.
- Sources indicate the targeted facility plays a crucial role in Russia's space program, including satellite communication and control, potentially impacting GLONASS, their equivalent of GPS.
- The facility supports vital systems like the Liana system, encompassing LOTOS and PION NKS satellites, used for passive radar and maritime reconnaissance respectively.
- It potentially controls electronic warfare systems like Dorada-2 and Balina MM, designed to disrupt enemy satellite communication signals.
Jonathan suggests this strike could significantly disrupt Russian space intelligence and electronic warfare capabilities, potentially delaying space programs and requiring costly repairs. He shares a tweet by J and Kyiv mentioning that only three other similar Russian space stations remain operational.
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Russian Glide Bomb Attacks on Kharkiv
🎦 27:36-31:16⏩
Jonathan addresses Russia's continued use of glide bombs to target Kharkiv Oblast, particularly following the US authorisation for Ukraine to strike within Belgorod Oblast using HIMARS in response to previous attacks on Kharkiv city with S-300s.
- He suggests that Russia's continued bombardment of Kharkiv could push the US to further ease restrictions, potentially allowing Ukraine to target Russian air bases with ATACMS missiles.
- Jonathan expresses his bafflement at Russia's counterproductive strategy of attacking civilian targets, which only strengthens international condemnation and potentially leads to further Western support for Ukraine.
Russian Missile Strike on School in Kharkiv
🎦 29:17-31:16⏩
Jonathan condemns the Russian missile strike on a private school in Kharkiv, resulting in one death and ten injuries, including two teenagers.
- He expresses his disgust at the targeting of civilian infrastructure, particularly educational institutions, and shares footage from a classroom CCTV camera capturing the moment of impact.
- Jonathan highlights the absence of any military justification for such an attack, underlining the deliberate targeting of civilians.
Ukrainian ATACMS Strike Near Sevastopol
🎦 31:16-39:29⏩
Jonathan discusses the Ukrainian ATACMS missile strikes near Sevastopol, Crimea. While the intended target appears to be Belbek Air Base, explosions were reported near a beach frequented by Russian tourists, resulting in casualties.
- He highlights the proximity of the beach to the air base, a legitimate military target, and criticises the Russian authorities for not closing the beach to civilians, especially considering Crimea's vulnerability to attacks.
- He questions the logic of Russians continuing to holiday in Crimea amidst the ongoing war.
- Jonathan also addresses the theory that a Russian TOR-M2 air defence system attempting to intercept the ATACMS missiles may have self-destructed over the beach, contributing to the civilian casualties.
- He criticizes pro-Russian voices blaming the US for supplying ATACMS missiles and questions the Daily Telegraph's reporting on the incident.
Jonathan emphasizes Article 58 of Additional Protocol 1 to the Geneva Conventions, which obligates occupying forces to safeguard civilians from the dangers of military operations. He asserts that Russia bears responsibility for civilian casualties due to their negligence in closing the beach near a military target and for encouraging tourism in an active warzone.
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Russian Plane Rotations at Engels Air Base
🎦 39:29-39:38⏩
Jonathan points out that satellite imagery reveals frequent rotations of Russian aircraft, specifically Tupolev Tu-295MS strategic bombers, at Engels Air Base.
- He suggests this indicates Russian apprehension regarding potential Ukrainian drone attacks on the base.
Coke Production Plant Fire in Kryvyi Rih
🎦 39:38-40:12⏩
Jonathan reports on a large fire at a coke production plant in Kryvyi Rih, attributing it to an accident caused by power outages.
- He explains that frequent power disruptions due to Russian strikes have severely impacted Ukraine's energy sector, leading to operational difficulties for various facilities requiring consistent power.
Azov Battalion Chief of Staff Complaint Against Ukrainian General
🎦 40:12-41:52⏩
Jonathan discusses the complaint lodged by Bohdan Krotevych, Chief of Staff of the Azov Battalion, against an unnamed Ukrainian general. Krotevych accuses the general of being responsible for more Ukrainian soldier deaths than any Russian general and alleges widespread discontent within the military towards him.
- While acknowledging the seriousness of the accusations, Jonathan provides context, noting that similar situations likely occurred in past conflicts but were not publicly aired due to the lack of social media. He posits that the ability to voice such grievances publicly might be beneficial in prompting necessary actions and holding individuals accountable.
Russian Soldiers Denied Medical Treatment
🎦 41:52-44:38⏩
Jonathan presents reports from ChrisO_Wiki and Astra about injured Russian soldiers being denied medical treatment and forced back to the frontlines.
- He cites an alleged order prohibiting sick leave and hospitalization for soldiers, even those with severe injuries.
- Jonathan shares an anecdote from "Alexander," a Storm-V unit member, who describes being denied medical attention for shrapnel wounds.
- Additionally, he highlights a report from Russian milblogger Igor Girkin (strelkov) exposing the appalling conditions in a basement in the occupied Donetsk region, where wounded and untreated Russian soldiers, including amputees, are being kept in inhumane conditions.
Jonathan concludes that this mistreatment of wounded soldiers further illustrates the dire situation within the Russian military.
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Ukraine's Naval Drone Success and Remote Mining Operations
🎦 44:38-48:08⏩
Jonathan discusses the successful deployment of Ukrainian-modified Sea Baby naval drones equipped with powerful mines, claiming they have successfully hit at least four Russian ships near Crimea.
- Ukraine aims to develop a fleet of up to 20 specialized drones to replicate the capabilities of a traditional warship, emphasizing their cost-effectiveness and reduced risk to human life.
Jonathan commends Ukraine's innovative approach to problem-solving in their naval strategies and highlights the significant achievement of potentially neutralizing Russian warships through remote mining, an accomplishment often missed in mainstream reporting.
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Wrap Up
🎦 48:08-48:12⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking viewers and encouraging them to like, subscribe, and share the content.
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