Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News - NOW UNRESTRICTED
Table of Contents 📖
"The situation is truly extraordinary. So I don't really know the situation in Mali, but the Wagner are, I think fighting on behalf, there's a coup there recently, and I presume they're fighting on behalf of the, the government that's now taken over the military government, uh against, is it the Tareg rebels?"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:39⏩
Jonathan welcomes the audience to the first part of the Ukraine War Update for 28 July 2024. He mentions that it is a beautiful day in the UK and that he was enjoying a cup of tea in the garden with his wife. He then reminds viewers of the difficult situation in Ukraine and expresses gratitude for not being on the front line. He then goes on to discuss the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses the previous day.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses - Ukrainian General Staff
🎦 00:39-01:37⏩
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, the Russians lost 1180 personnel, 13 tanks, 21 armoured personnel carriers, 51 artillery systems, 2 multiple launch rocket systems and one anti-aircraft warfare system the previous day. These figures are above the daily average.
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Russian Losses - Warspotting List
🎦 01:37-04:37⏩
Jonathan discusses the Warspotting list of visually confirmed Russian losses, compiled by Richard Vareka. He notes that Warspotting does not include damaged equipment in its headline totals, unlike Oryx or Andrew Perpetua. The list includes 57 combat losses for the Russians, compared to 21 for the Ukrainians, indicating a 2.7:1 ratio of combat losses in favour of the Ukrainians.
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Ukrainian Losses - Warspotting List
🎦 04:37-05:46⏩
The list shows that the Ukrainians lost an ANTPQ-50 radar, possibly due to a grass fire. A number of artillery systems, including an FH-70 and a Panzer 2000, were also lost or damaged. Some tanks, such as T-80, T-72 and T-64, were also lost. The list also includes a variety of other equipment, including APCs, MRAPs, and trucks.
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Russian Losses - Andrew Perpetua's List
🎦 05:46-08:15⏩
Jonathan then focuses on Andrew Perpetua's list of visually confirmed Russian losses. He notes that there are a large number of artillery systems on this list, mostly D-20s and D-30s, likely due to a recent video montage of artillery being destroyed by FPV drones. Andrew's list shows that the Russians are losing a significant amount of equipment, including tanks, IFVs, APCs, and civilian vehicles. The total number of Russian losses on the list is 94, with 57 of those being combat losses.
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FPV Drones in Counter-Battery Role
🎦 08:15-09:20⏩
Jonathan highlights the increasing use of FPV drones in a counter-battery role, targeting Russian artillery. He notes that this is replacing traditional counter-battery artillery, as evidenced by the large number of artillery systems being destroyed in recent days.
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Recent Losses - Andrew Perpetua's List
🎦 09:20-10:30⏩
Moving onto the latest list from Andrew Perpetua, Jonathan notes a smaller ratio of combat losses, with the Ukrainians having very few combat losses. A couple of Bradley fighting vehicles were damaged, prompting discussion about the decline in US Presidential Drawdown Authority aid packages. He also mentions the Canadian contribution of a number of Senator vehicles, but acknowledges that they are not ideal for front-line use.
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Russian Losses - Andrew Perpetua's List
🎦 10:30-12:38⏩
The list also includes a Su-34 that crashed due to pilot error and a training plane that went down. A significant number of boats, surveillance and comms equipment, and artillery systems were lost. A limited number of tanks and IFVs were lost, with the majority of the losses being artillery.
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Russian Unsustainable Losses
🎦 12:38-13:51⏩
Jonathan expresses concern over the large and sustained Russian losses, arguing that it cannot be sustainable in the long term. He notes that the types and number of vehicles used in recent Russian attacks are different from previous tactics, with larger numbers being deployed in a few recent attacks. He discusses a particular attack where a column of Russian armoured vehicles was destroyed by Ukrainian forces, resulting in the loss of tanks and BMPs. This attack involved a limited number of vehicles, highlighting the importance of Ukrainian artillery in halting Russian advances.
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Russian Pressure in Prokhorovsk Sector
🎦 13:51-16:03⏩
Jonathan acknowledges that the Russian forces are putting pressure on Ukrainian defenses in certain areas, particularly the Prokhorovsk sector near Avdiivka. Despite this, he questions the cost of Russian advances, noting that they are losing significant numbers of personnel and equipment.
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Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Strategic Bombers
🎦 16:03-17:57⏩
Jonathan discusses the Ukrainian claim of striking a Russian Tupolev Tu-22M3 strategic bomber at a base in Olenya airfield, over 1800 kilometers from the Ukrainian front line. He notes that the lack of direct evidence is understandable given the distance of the strike. He then discusses other Ukrainian strikes on Russian assets, including two helicopters in a week. These strikes involved a Mi-28, a Ka-226, and a Mi-8. He concludes that the Russian VKS (Aerospace Forces) has had a difficult week, losing a significant number of aircraft.
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Wagner Losses in Mali
🎦 17:57-24:33⏩
Jonathan moves on to discuss the significant losses suffered by Wagner mercenaries in Mali. A Ruzich unit reports that over 80 Wagner fighters were killed in an ambush, with over 15 more taken captive. He shares a statement from the commander of the 13th assault unit, who confirms the loss of his personnel, and expresses concern for his comrades fighting on behalf of the Mali junta. Jonathan mentions the gruesome video footage of the incident, including burnt-out vehicles and dead bodies. He confirms the deaths of prominent Wagner figures, including Anton Yelizarov, also known as Lotus, and Nikita Fedyanin, also known as White. The Terek rebels are estimated to have killed over 80 Wagner mercenaries, along with 17-50 of the Mali junta. The incident is described as a "bloody nose" for Wagner and a significant blow for Russia in Mali, with the Terek rebels offering the captured Wagner fighters to the Ukrainians. Jonathan points to the numerous crimes committed by Wagner in Mali, including a massacre of 500 people.
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Ukraine's Goal: Pressure on Russia
🎦 24:33-25:46⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukraine's strategy of applying pressure on Russia in various locations outside of Ukraine, aiming to strain Russian resources and distract from their efforts in the war. He points to Ukrainian special forces operating in Sudan, targeting Wagner mercenaries and disrupting their ability to obtain funding for the war effort.
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Distant Strikes and Russian Defenses
🎦 25:46-28:42⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of Ukrainian air defense systems shooting down a Kh-59 cruise missile and seven out of eight Shahed drones launched into Ukraine. He mentions reports of rockets landing in Kharkiv, possibly due to the presence of S-300 surface-to-air missiles in the area. There are also reports of Iskander-M ballistic missiles striking the Dnipropetrovsk oblast. Jonathan discusses a significant drone attack on an oil depot in the Kursk region, causing fires and serious damage. This follows similar attacks in February, demonstrating the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones in targeting Russian infrastructure.
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Saki Airfield Strike
🎦 28:42-28:58⏩
Jonathan mentions satellite imagery indicating the destruction of a Su-30SM fighter jet and potential damage to another Su-30SM at Saki airfield in Crimea. This confirms earlier reports of Ukrainian strikes on the airfield.
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Storm Shadow Missiles
🎦 28:58-29:45⏩
Jonathan discusses the ongoing rumours surrounding the use of Storm Shadow missiles by Ukraine against Russian territory. He states that the UK requires France's consent to authorize such strikes as both countries jointly produce the missiles. He also mentions the previous rumours involving the US, suggesting that multiple parties are involved in the decision-making process.
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Drone Use in the War
🎦 29:45-33:15⏩
Jonathan discusses the increasing use of drones in the war, referencing reports from both sides about the number of drones being deployed. He stresses the importance of relying on statistics rather than anecdotes, noting that both sides have made contradictory claims about drone usage. He acknowledges that the Russians may be increasing their drone capabilities, as they are in desperate need of such assets. He mentions that the Ukrainians are using electronic warfare effectively, but it also causes them to lose their own drones. He also discusses the impact of drones on Russian logistics, forcing them to unload equipment further from the front lines.
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Donetsk Mine Fire
🎦 33:15-33:42⏩
Jonathan mentions a fire engulfing a Donetsk mine due to Russian shelling. This poses a challenge for the Ukrainian war effort, as it affects their industrial output.
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Okhmedyt Children's Hospital
🎦 33:42-36:13⏩
Jonathan discusses President Zelensky and his wife's visit to the Okhmedyt Children's Hospital in Kyiv. The hospital was previously damaged by a Russian missile strike, requiring the evacuation of children. Zelensky vows to rebuild the hospital.
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Wrap up
🎦 36:13-36:19⏩
Jonathan thanks the audience for watching, expresses appreciation for their support and says that he will speak to them soon.
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