Ukraine War Update NEWS/EXTRA: Military Aid News & Extra - MBTs vs IFVs, Women in Combat

"Over the course of just over two and a half years, Russia sent something like 14,000 missiles into Ukraine, including missiles and drones from Iran and North Korea, not to mention presently using around 12,000 North Korean troops...Ukraine do exactly the same with some 20 missiles, and Russia shouts escalation. This is not escalation."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:26⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the channel for the second Ukraine War Update of the day - 22nd November 2024. Today's update includes news about a new missile that Russia has used in Dnipro, military aid updates and a discussion about women in the armed forces.

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Germany: Public opposition to Taurus missile deliveries grows

🎦 00:26-02:32⏩
Euromaidan Press reports that over 60% of Germans are opposed to sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine, which poses a significant challenge to western military support for Ukraine. The poll conducted for ARD TV channel reveals that only 30% of Germans are in favour of sending the missiles, highlighting a stark contrast in public opinion regarding military aid. Jonathan expresses his disappointment with this data, noting that public opinion could hinder the provision of Taurus missiles, despite interest from the CDU and FDP parties. He acknowledges the significance of this development, particularly given that the war is entering a critical phase.

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Germany: Ukraine requests €1.1bn drone package for 2025

🎦 02:32-03:41⏩
Citing Business Insider, GermanAid2Ukraine reveals that Ukraine has requested €1.1bn in drone deliveries from Germany for 2025. The request includes 812 Vector EVTOL drones, worth €153 million, which were initially requested months ago. However, Germany's tight budget situation poses a challenge, as only €4bn is allocated for Ukraine assistance in the 2025 draft budget, with military aid expected to reach €4.15bn. Reimbursements from the European Peace Facility (EPF) are being considered to bridge the gap. Despite Ukraine's request, only €88 million is currently planned for drone deliveries in 2025, highlighting a significant discrepancy between Ukraine's needs and Germany's current financial commitments. The situation remains fluid, with uncertainties surrounding the financing of Ukraine's future needs.

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Sweden: To invest in Ukrainian drone production and long range drone capabilities

🎦 03:41-05:19⏩
Jonathan reports that Sweden has pledged to finance the production of long range drones in Ukraine, mirroring a successful model established in Denmark. He speculates on whether this move is indicative of a broader shift in European and Northern European politics, potentially leading to a new, stronger political coalition in support of Ukraine. This new coalition, which would potentially involve countries like the UK, Germany, France, the Baltic states and Nordic countries, could resemble a hybrid of the EU and NATO or act as a larger capability coalition, reflecting shared concerns about Russia's growing geopolitical influence. While the precise nature of this development remains unclear, Jonathan highlights the potential significance of these emerging alliances in the context of the ongoing war.

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United Kingdom: £500m military asset cuts, repurposing for Ukraine?

🎦 05:19-11:14⏩
Jonathan revisits the controversial £500m cuts to UK military assets announced by Defence Secretary John Healey, a move aimed at modernising the UK's Armed Forces. These cuts, which include the decommissioning of HMS Northumberland and Watchkeeper drones, have sparked criticism within defence circles, although similar plans were already in place before the current Labour government took office. However, amidst the controversy, there's a possibility that these decommissioned assets could be repurposed for Ukraine, addressing the UK's need to support Ukraine while simultaneously streamlining its own defence spending. This strategic move, if implemented, would allow the UK to contribute to Ukraine's defence efforts without incurring additional costs, effectively balancing financial constraints with the imperative to support Ukraine. The UK Defence Journal reports that no final decisions have been made regarding the retired assets. However, Defence Secretary John Healey assured Parliament that personnel affected by the cuts would be retrained or redeployed, ensuring no job losses. While the future of the decommissioned equipment remains uncertain, the possibility of sending them to Ukraine is being explored, potentially offering a pragmatic solution to a complex financial and strategic challenge.

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United Kingdom: British military equipment sold to Russia via an Influencer

🎦 11:14-14:23⏩
In a concerning development, the Daily Wrap reports that over £1.6 million worth of British-made military equipment was sent to Russia via the company of an Instagram influencer, Valeria Begashina. The BBC investigation, which accessed customs documents, revealed that the exports were routed through a company registered in Kyrgyzstan, owned by Begashina, known for her swimwear promotions on Instagram. The exported equipment, including camera lenses, was manufactured by Beck Optronics Solutions, a British company that supplies components for Challenger 2 tanks and F-35 fighters. When questioned by the BBC, Beck Optronics Solutions denied any involvement in sanction violations, claiming no knowledge of the shipments and suggesting that customs documents might have been forged.

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Kyrgyzstan: Begashina and Rama Group

🎦 14:23-16:55⏩
Jonathan delves into the details of the investigation, noting that Belarusian documents identify Begashina as the founder and director of Rama Group LLC, a company established in 2023 and registered in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. The BBC investigation reveals that Rama Group facilitated two out of six shipments of high-quality optical devices to Moscow, components used for missiles, tanks and fighters. The remaining shipments were handled by Shishan LLC, also registered in Kyrgyzstan. Both Rama Group and Shishan LLC share the same registered address in Bishkek, raising suspicions about their connection and the extent of their involvement in exporting British military equipment to Russia. Jonathan highlights the inherent challenges manufacturers face in tracing the ultimate destination of their products, particularly in complex, multi-layered supply chains. He argues that the pursuit of profit often overshadows ethical considerations, acknowledging the pervasive influence of greed in human behaviour and the inherent tension between profit motives and moral responsibility within capitalist systems. Jonathan emphasises the critical role investigative journalism plays in exposing such illicit activities, holding those involved accountable. He calls for mainstream media to continue its work in uncovering sanction violations and advocating for stricter enforcement measures.

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Sanctions and a potential Trump administration

🎦 16:55-17:33⏩
Jonathan discusses the broader implications of a potential Trump administration lifting sanctions on Russia, a topic raised by his viewers. He stresses the importance of collective action in enforcing sanctions, arguing that their effectiveness hinges on universal participation. The lifting of sanctions by the US would likely trigger resentment among other sanctioning countries, leading to a competitive disadvantage for their corporations in the global marketplace. Jonathan expresses concern about the possibility of companies relocating from sanctioning jurisdictions like the EU to the US, where they could freely trade with Russia, undermining the collective effort to pressure Russia. He strongly advocates for the continuation of US sanctions on Russia, underscoring the critical role they play in influencing Russia's behaviour.

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Sweden: Gripen Spares Package for 14 aircraft

🎦 17:33-19:58⏩
Jonathan reports that Swedish Defence Minister, Paul Jansson has confirmed that the previously announced Gripen spare parts package for Ukraine will cover 14 aircraft. This revelation, shared by aviation journalist Gareth Jennings, marks the first time a specific number of aircraft has been mentioned in relation to the Gripen support package. The provision of Gripen spare parts, despite Ukraine not currently operating Gripen aircraft, raises questions about Sweden's intentions and the possibility of Ukraine receiving Gripen fighters in the near future. Jonathan speculates on whether this is a proactive move by Sweden, ensuring a robust logistics footprint in anticipation of future Gripen deliveries or simply a strategic investment in Ukraine's defence capabilities. He notes that the current priority of the International Fighter Coalition remains the delivery of F-16s, with Gripens and Mirage 2000s expected to follow. He expresses his frustration with the delay in delivering these advanced fighter jets, fearing that Ukraine could be forced into negotiations before these capabilities come online, potentially jeopardizing their ability to regain aerial advantage. Jonathan emphasizes the urgency of providing Ukraine with the necessary military support to achieve a favourable negotiating position.

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Ukraine: 3,000 Cruise Missile Production Capacity

🎦 19:58-21:20⏩
Jonathan reports that Forbes has revealed Ukraine's capacity to produce 3,000 cruise missiles next year, highlighting the need for purchase contracts to realize this potential. This domestic production capacity, equivalent to eight missiles per day, surpasses the current production rates of both Russia and the US. The estimated cost of this production initiative is $3 billion, a figure Jonathan believes would be a worthwhile investment. He reiterates his long-held belief that Ukraine's success hinges on access to substantial quantities of distance munitions, including attack drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. Jonathan emphasises the strategic importance of crippling Russia's war-fighting capacity by targeting their hydrocarbons industry and disrupting their air bases. He believes that a sustained campaign of targeted strikes would significantly strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position.

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Ukraine: 24th Mechanized Brigade Repair Depot

🎦 21:20-23:23⏩
The 24th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has released a video showcasing the operations of one of their repair depots, emphasizing the crucial role these facilities play in maintaining Ukraine's military capabilities. The video highlights the maintenance and repair work carried out on various armoured vehicles, including the American M113 APC, as well as T-64 and T-72 tanks. Jonathan points out the dedication and skill of the technicians working in these repair depots, often described as the unsung heroes of the war in Ukraine. He praises their efforts in keeping Ukraine's military equipment operational, ensuring their continued effectiveness on the battlefield. The video also shows the production of 2S22 Mod 4 Bogdana self-propelled guns and a Varta 2 with a Spear unmanned turret, demonstrating Ukraine's expanding domestic arms production capabilities. Jonathan highlights the significance of these developments, noting that Ukraine is increasingly able to produce its own essential weaponry, including mortar bombs and artillery shells, reducing their reliance on foreign suppliers. He commends the ingenuity and resilience of the Ukrainian defence industry, adapting and innovating to meet the demands of the ongoing conflict.

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Russia: New KDAR Ballistic Missile used in Dnipro

🎦 23:23-26:15⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) has confirmed that Russia used its new KDAR ballistic missile, codenamed 'Oreshnik' (Russian) or 'Kedir'(Ukrainian) in the recent strikes on Dnipro. Ukraine's intelligence chief, Kirill Budanov, has revealed that Russia had only produced two of these missiles as of last month, suggesting a limited inventory. The use of this nuclear-capable missile without a nuclear warhead is seen as a warning by Moscow, showcasing their recklessness and willingness to escalate the conflict. Jonathan notes the media's use of the term 'new missile' and the criticism it has drawn, as this missile type has been known for some time. He highlights the threat posed by these experimental missiles, despite their limited number, prompting Ukraine to engage in discussions with its partners to counter this new threat. Potential countermeasures being considered include obtaining FAD (Forward Area Defense) systems, designed to intercept high-altitude missiles, or upgrading existing Patriot systems. Jonathan explains that FAD systems have not been necessary for Ukraine until now, as Russia primarily used missiles with lower trajectories that were effectively countered by Patriots and NASAMS. However, the increased use of these new high-altitude missiles necessitates exploring alternative defense solutions.

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Ballistic Missile Penetration Aids

🎦 26:15-35:37⏩
Jonathan delves into a detailed discussion about ballistic missile penetration aids, based on a thread by 'VLS Enjoyer'. These penetration aids, including decoys and other countermeasures, aim to enhance the survivability of ballistic missiles, particularly those with nuclear warheads, by complicating detection and interception efforts. The thread explores various penetration aid techniques, ranging from basic chaff and aerosols to more sophisticated booster fragmentation and lightweight Mylar balloons. Jonathan explains the complexities involved in designing these countermeasures, highlighting the trade-offs between weight, range and effectiveness. He discusses the use of advanced sensors and algorithms by defenders to discriminate between real warheads and decoys, as well as the continuous arms race between offensive and defensive technologies. Jonathan acknowledges the technical challenges posed by these penetration aids, underscoring the difficulty in obtaining reliable information due to the sensitive nature of these technologies. He emphasizes the growing complexity of missile warfare, with both attackers and defenders constantly innovating to gain an edge. Jonathan notes the additional challenges Ukraine faces in countering these new Russian missiles, particularly in light of potential limitations in obtaining advanced defense systems from its allies.

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Russia: Supplying North Korea with weapons for troops and resources

🎦 35:37-37:05⏩
Jonathan reports on recent revelations about Russia's growing ties with North Korea. In addition to the previously reported transfer of animals from Moscow Zoo to Pyongyang as a gesture of goodwill, the Associated Press has revealed that Russia has supplied North Korea with air defence missiles. This exchange, which also involves economic assistance and the transfer of military technologies, including those related to space-based surveillance systems, is seen as a quid pro quo for North Korea's provision of troops to Russia to support their war in Ukraine. Furthermore, investigations have revealed that since March 2024, Russia has supplied North Korea with over 1 million barrels of oil, a blatant violation of UN sanctions, in exchange for weapons and troops. Jonathan highlights the hypocrisy of Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, blatantly violating UN sanctions while simultaneously accusing Ukraine of escalation. He questions the UN's ability to hold Russia accountable for its actions.

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Russia: Putin's escalation rhetoric

🎦 37:05-38:39⏩
Jonathan addresses Putin's recent speech on Russian national television, where he complained about Ukraine's missile strikes, framing them as an escalation. Jonathan dismisses Putin's claims, highlighting the absurdity of Russia, a country 28 times larger than Ukraine, complaining about 20 missiles being launched back at them after having launched over 14,000 missiles into Ukraine over the course of the war. He criticizes Russia's reliance on Soviet-style nuclear threats, arguing that these tactics are increasingly ineffective and lack credibility. Jonathan emphasizes the importance of countering this rhetoric, providing viewers with a clear and compelling argument to challenge claims of escalation. He shares a post he made on Facebook, outlining the hypocrisy of Russia's accusations, pointing out the vast disparity in missile strikes launched by each side and the extensive reliance of Russia on foreign components for their own missiles. Jonathan uses a humorous analogy, featuring "Old Doris", to illustrate the fallacy of Russia's escalation claims, emphasizing that the defender (Ukraine) has no obligation to de-escalate, a responsibility that lies solely with the attacker (Russia). He stresses that the only way to truly de-escalate the situation is for Russia to withdraw from Ukraine.

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United States: Pro-Russian rhetoric in US media & politics

🎦 38:39-40:57⏩
Jonathan addresses pro-Russian rhetoric circulating in US media, highlighting Benny Johnson, a YouTube personality previously exposed for receiving payments from Russian-backed Tenet Media to promote pro-Russian narratives. He criticizes Piers Morgan for platforming Johnson, amplifying his misleading claims. Johnson's recent comments on Biden's attempt to cancel over $4.5 billion of Ukraine's debt reflect a common pro-Russian talking point, framing US support for Ukraine as a wasteful 'endless war'. Jonathan praises Jake Broe's response, which effectively counters this narrative by pointing out the absurdity of demanding loan repayment from a country that Johnson himself advocates abandoning to Russian conquest. Jonathan underscores Broe's point that a Russian victory would leave the US with no hope of recovering the loan, making support for Ukraine a pragmatic necessity for US interests.

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United States: The debate about MBTs and IFVs

🎦 40:57-46:05⏩
Jonathan discusses the ongoing debate regarding the effectiveness of main battle tanks (MBTs) versus infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) in the context of the Ukraine war, referring to comments made by Dan Speehan and Ryan O'Leary. The Abrams MBT, supplied by the US, has faced criticism for its relative lack of maneuverability and vulnerability to drone attacks compared to other tank types. Jonathan shares O'Leary's suggestion that the US should prioritize sending Bradleys, Strykers and other IFVs to Ukraine, leaving tank deliveries to European allies. Jonathan agrees with this assessment, highlighting the advantages of IFVs like the Bradley, which offer greater versatility, maneuverability and troop transport capabilities. He emphasizes the consistently positive reports from Bradley users in Ukraine and the documented evidence of their effectiveness on the battlefield, echoing his previous calls for the US to prioritize Bradley deliveries in upcoming aid packages. Jonathan shares insights from Chris Cappy, a journalist who recently visited Ukraine, providing firsthand accounts of the performance of Bradleys and Strykers on the frontlines. Cappy confirms the Bradley's resilience, noting its ability to withstand multiple drone strikes and 30mm autocannon fire without suffering fatalities. He also highlights the Stryker's effectiveness, particularly in transporting troops and laying minefields. Cappy reports that Ukrainian soldiers prefer Bradleys over their Soviet-era counterparts, emphasizing their superior protection and firepower. They expressed a desire for more modern Bradleys with advanced thermal optics, highlighting the need for continued upgrades. Jonathan sees Cappy's firsthand reports as valuable evidence supporting the argument for prioritizing IFVs over MBTs in US military aid to Ukraine.

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United States: GOP nominee scandals and the potential impact on Ukraine

🎦 46:05-49:09⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to US politics, discussing the scandals surrounding GOP nominees and their potential impact on future support for Ukraine. He reports that Matt Gaetz has withdrawn from the Attorney General race due to allegations of sex trafficking and sexual misconduct with a minor, avoiding a likely defeat in a Senate vote. This withdrawal, prompted by pressure from Trump, spares several GOP senators from having to vote against Gaetz, potentially freeing them to oppose other controversial nominees. Jonathan explains the implications of this development, noting that GOP senators are likely to only oppose a limited number of nominees to avoid internal conflicts. He expresses concern that this dynamic could lead to the confirmation of several unfit candidates, including those with a history of sexual misconduct. Jonathan outlines the theories circulating regarding which nominees are most likely to face opposition, speculating that Pete Hegseth, the nominee for Secretary of Defence, could be a prime target due to serious allegations of sexual misconduct.

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United States: Women in combat roles

🎦 49:09-56:18⏩
Jonathan discusses the potential impact of Pete Hegseth's appointment as Secretary of Defence on women in the armed forces. Hegseth, known for his anti-woke stance, has expressed a desire to limit the role of women in combat, aiming to revert the military to a pre-1990s approach. Jonathan questions the wisdom of such a move, arguing that it would send negative signals to female service members and exacerbate existing recruitment challenges. He believes that Hegseth's alleged history of sexual assault, coupled with his opposition to women in combat roles, could create a toxic environment within the military. Jonathan emphasizes the need to expand recruitment efforts beyond traditional male demographics, arguing that excluding women from combat roles would needlessly limit the pool of qualified candidates. He points to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) as a model for successful integration of women in combat, highlighting their effectiveness and contributions to national security. Jonathan acknowledges the ongoing debate within the IDF regarding the suitability of women for elite combat units, noting that initial restrictions have been challenged in court. He emphasizes that the IDF's increasing reliance on women in combat roles is driven by practical considerations, not a social agenda, reflecting the growing necessity of maximizing available human resources. Jonathan concludes that attempts to roll back the progress made in integrating women into combat roles would be detrimental to national security, urging viewers to engage in thoughtful discussion about the contributions of women in the armed forces.

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Wrap up

🎦 56:18-56:36⏩
Jonathan ends the video with a lighthearted joke, requesting viewers to write a 1,000-word essay about women in the armed forces, handwritten on A4 paper. He thanks viewers for watching and signs off.

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