Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia has issued $566,000 in fines in 2023 to TV providers for showing LGBT content. In other words, freedom."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:17⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - a Ukraine War news update - the first part for 24th January 2024. There's a lot to get through.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses Claimed by Ukrainian General Staff
🎦 00:17-02:07⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day, noting that they can be found in the video description:
- 840 personnel. This is very high, although not over 1,000
- 13 Tanks. A little down from the previous day but still above average.
- 31 APVs. A huge number.
- 61 Artillery Systems. A phenomenal number and potentially the highest single day loss.
- 1 MLRS
- 2 Anti-Aircraft Systems
- 49 Vehicles and Fuel Tanks
- 7 Pieces of Special Equipment
- 37 Drones
- 22 Cruise Missiles
Jonathan notes that ideally we need footage to verify the claims made by the Ukrainian General Staff.
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Andrew Perpetua's Visually Confirmed Losses
🎦 02:07-03:42⏩
Jonathan reviews the equipment losses verified by Andrew Perpetua and notes that they are very much in favour of the Ukrainians - a ratio of 5:1 or even 6 or 7 to 1 if decoys are included. Jonathan observes that this is the second day of very high Ukrainian General Staff claims which correlate with high visually confirmed losses from Andrew Perpetua. He notes that these tend to be skewed towards drone losses. Looking at Ukrainian losses:
- A couple of T-64 Tanks
- Vans and SUVs
Jonathan notes that this represents a very low value set of losses for the Ukrainians for a single day.
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Russian Equipment Losses - Andrew Perpetua
🎦 03:42-07:21⏩
Jonathan reviews some of the more significant Russian equipment losses visually confirmed by Andrew Perpertua:
- Buk M2 Air Defence system
- Silo Electronic Warfare system
- Comms equipment
- Yastreb AWACS - This is worth $250m and Jonathan recalls a similar system being destroyed recently after the Russians boasted about it online. He wonders if the latest loss was a result of similar boasting. He speculates whether this single loss is worth more than a small ship.
- Zoopark Counter Battery radar system - Jonathan notes that these are high value and difficult for the Russians to replace. He speculates that the disconnect between visually confirmed artillery losses and those claimed by the Ukrainian General Staff could be due to the method of attack - FPV drones tend to target equipment closer to the frontlines whereas artillery is generally situated further back and likely targeted by longer range weapons not typically documented by Andrew Perpetua.
- 2 x T-90M Tanks (Russia's newest tank)
- T-90S Tanks (export variant)
- BMP-2s
- 3 x BTRs
Jonathan is astounded by the level of equipment losses sustained by the Russians - especially at a time when the Ukrainians are struggling to source artillery ammunition. He speculates that this could lead to a growing number of drone attacks as the Ukrainians are not short of drones.
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Russian Il-76 Crashes in Belgorod
🎦 07:21-11:27⏩
- An IL-76 Military transport aircraft has crashed in the Korochansky district of the Belgorod region, just over the border with Ukraine. The Ukrainians claim it was shot down.
- A video circulating online shows a large explosion in the distance.
- 63 people are believed to have been on board.
- Unwatermarked versions show parts falling off the aircraft in flight, suggesting it may have been hit.
- The Russians claim the aircraft was carrying 65 POWs to Belgorod for exchange (6 crew and 3 escorts). Jonathan observes that this is a clever way of spinning events to minimise the impact of a Ukrainian success.
- However, other sources claim the aircraft was carrying S300 munitions and was downed by Ukrainian air defences. The size of the explosion suggests this is possible.
- The truth is unknown but the Russians will seek to minimise Ukrainian success and vice versa.
- The aircraft is estimated to be worth $27m
Other Ukraine News
🎦 11:27-13:23⏩
- Ukrainian Defence Minister, Reznikov, claims that Russia is losing 400 soldiers per square kilometre in Ukraine. Jonathan questions what this means without a timeframe.
- Reznikov also stated that despite a six-fold artillery advantage, Russia had failed to achieve an advantage.
- A video has surfaced online of a Russian source talking about the aftermath of a missile attack on their positions in Donetsk in November 2023. The source describes three strikes and claims that only 28 out of 120 men survived - a 92% casualty rate. Jonathan uses this as an example of the reality behind the large casualty figures often cited.
More Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 13:23-15:06⏩
Jonathan reviews more visually confirmed Russian equipment losses:
- Another Yastreb AWACS worth $250m (the second one destroyed in three weeks). This was destroyed along with:
- Buk M2 and Buk M3 launchers
- Zupak 1 Counter Battery radar system
- 2S7 Pion self-propelled gun
- A T-72B3 Tank destroyed in a suspected FPV drone attack. Jonathan has noticed that some vehicles appear to be exploding immediately on impact, rather than as a result of cooking off. This leads him to suspect that the Ukrainians may be using shaped charges on their FPV drones, enabling them to penetrate armour.
Russian Tank Losses
🎦 15:06-16:43⏩
- A rare T-90S (export variant) has been destroyed in a Javelin strike on the Marinka front. This is significant as it suggests the Russians are having to use export models on the frontlines due to shortages. Jonathan recalls reports earlier in the war that Russia may have appropriated a batch of Indian T-90s that had been returned for upgrades.
Jonathan is interrupted by his doorbell!
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Ukrainian Sniper Success
🎦 16:43-18:25⏩
- Two Ukrainian GUR special forces soldiers eliminated 22 Russian soldiers in a single night using .338 calibre sniper rifles.
- Jonathan notes that snipers have been responsible for a large number of casualties. Statistics earlier in the war indicated that 80% of losses were attributed to snipers although he speculates that this figure may have changed since the introduction of drones.
- The sniper rifles used were Heinel HLR .338s - the same ones that Germany refused to supply earlier in the war.
More on the Yastreb AWACS Loss
🎦 18:25-19:07⏩
- Further footage of the destroyed Yastreb AWACS has emerged online. Jonathan notes that links to all footage is included in the video description.
Ukrainian Intelligence Officer Killed
🎦 19:07-20:46⏩
- Ukrainian intelligence officer, Lieutenant Colonel Oleh Babi, has been killed in action and awarded Hero of Ukraine.
- Babi infiltrated over 600km on foot through Russian-held territory to destroy a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber and damage two more at the Soltsy airbase.
- He was part of the GUR and his team carried out 9 successful reconnaissance missions, 12 acts of resistance and identified 70 strategic targets.
- He was fatally wounded in an ambush on 30th August 2023.
Andrew Perpetua Analyses Satellite Imagery
🎦 20:46-23:18⏩
Jonathan discusses two recent videos by Andrew Perpetua. In these videos, Perpetua returns to his traditional method of analysing satellite imagery after the winter weather prevented this for some time:
- The videos focus on identifying evidence of shelling by looking for new "pockmarks" in the ground on recent imagery.
- By determining the direction of shelling, Perpetua is able to establish which side holds which positions.
- Perpetua believes that the Russians only have 8-10 months left in them as they won't be able to sustain the levels of equipment losses (especially tanks) they are experiencing. Jonathan agrees with this assessment.
Russia News Round Up
🎦 23:18-27:45⏩
- Colonel Vadim Zavyalov of the St Petersburg police has died in a fall.
- 100,000 people are without electricity in Vladivostok following an explosion at an electrical substation. Jonathan notes that this is becoming increasingly common and is a sign that Russia is struggling to provide energy and water to its population.
- Kharkiv has been subjected to rocket attacks for the third consecutive day.
- The BBC has reported that the Ukrainian military claims to have neutralised two dozen Russian missiles using electronic warfare rather than air defence systems. Jonathan believes that if true, this represents a massive turning point, as Ukraine will be less reliant on expensive air defence systems like Patriot, which also require large amounts of expensive consumables (missiles).
- He speculates that electronic warfare systems might not require consumables.
- The main issue will be how quickly Russia can adapt to counter any electronic warfare measures.
- Jonathan shows footage of a downed Russian missile that landed in the courtyard of a residential building.
Russian Mill Blogger Reports on FPV Drone Attacks
🎦 27:45-30:48⏩
- Russian Mill blogger, Nuitri Rogozin, reported that his volunteer battalion's positions were attacked by FPV drones every 10 minutes for 4 hours.
- He describes the drones as "palpable" and that "gamers" with drones are replacing old-school artillery.
- He states that countering killer drones is now as important as counter-battery fire, asking why Ukraine needs shells and artillery when gamers with drones can do the same job more cheaply and effectively.
- Jonathan believes that we will continue to see an increase in the number of drones deployed as they are cheap, easy to produce and Ukraine is not short of them, unlike artillery ammunition.
Miscellaneous News Items
🎦 30:48-34:03⏩
- A Russian army officer with alleged links to Belarus has been killed in Kherson. Jonathan questions whether he was a mercenary or Belarusian soldier fighting for Russia.
- Jonathan refers to his earlier video about the Donestk market place attack, reiterating his belief that it was a false flag attack by the Russians.
- Evidence points to mortar bombs being used in the attack - not 152/155mm artillery as originally claimed by the Russians. This was further evidenced by the lack of damage at the scene.
- Furthermore, social media footage of the attack has been found to be staged - featuring actors pretending to be dead and injured and bystanders seemingly unconcerned by the casualties.
- This has been corroborated by a social media post advertising for actors to appear in staged videos in the Donbas.
Freedom of Speech in Russia
🎦 34:03-35:59⏩
- A Russian man has been arrested and charged with treason for stating that "Putin has f*ed all sane people to death".
- Jonathan compares this with the freedom of speech enjoyed in the UK, observing that Rishi Sunak could be similarly insulted without fear of arrest.
- Further evidence of a crackdown on freedom of speech can be seen in the fining of TV companies for showing LGBT content - this is because Russia considers homosexuality to be an extremist ideology comparable to ISIS.
Wrap Up
🎦 35:59-35:59⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
What is a "balayaga drone"? (03:00)
Who is "Moses"? (28:38)
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is a multi-part video so I will follow the steps for each task. I will need to remember to include details about the specific part in the title and also ensure I understand any specific instructions related to the video.
