Ukraine War Update: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News - Assassination Plot Details
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hello Team | 00:00-00:11⏩ |
| 2 | Ukrainian General Staff Report on Russian Losses | 00:11-01:11⏩ |
| 3 | Yakub Yanofsky's Russian and Ukrainian Loss Lists | 01:11-03:17⏩ |
| 4 | Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Targets | 03:17-05:13⏩ |
| 5 | Russian Senior Officer Eliminated in Belgorod Region | 05:16-05:34⏩ |
| 6 | Assassination of Stavropol Deputy Mayor Zalgurtiev | 05:34-10:18⏩ |
| 7 | Strikes Inside Occupied Ukraine and Russia | 10:22-12:17⏩ |
| 8 | Russian Strikes on Ukraine (Overnight) | 12:19-17:39⏩ |
| 9 | Aftermath of Kronstadt Drone Strike in Moscow Region | 17:39-19:00⏩ |
| 10 | Russian Troop Buildup Around Kostyantynivka | 19:02-22:08⏩ |
| 11 | Russian Effectiveness with FPV Drones | 22:09-23:02⏩ |
| 12 | Concerns for Kharkiv and Sumy: Potential "Human Safari" | 23:02-24:20⏩ |
| 13 | Ukrainian Conscription Issues | 24:20-26:07⏩ |
| 14 | Canadian-Funded Project Mapping Russian "Children's Gulags" | 26:07-26:55⏩ |
| 15 | Russian POW with Nazi Tattoos | 26:55-27:34⏩ |
| 16 | Poland's Confrontation with Russian Tanker | 27:34-27:56⏩ |
| 17 | Russia Providing Pantsir Air Defence System to North Korea | 27:56-29:52⏩ |
| 18 | The Russian Economy: "Barely Managed Decline" | 29:52-34:44⏩ |
| 19 | NATO Air Power Advantage Against Russia | 34:44-36:39⏩
Return to top⤴️ Awards for Ukrainian Military Intelligence (GUR) Officers |
| 21 | Wrap up | 37:34-38:54⏩ |
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:11⏩
- Jonathan welcomed viewers to the first part of the 30th May 2025 Ukraine War News Update.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report on Russian Losses
🎦 00:11-01:11⏩
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported 1,140 Russian personnel losses, an uptick of about 100 soldiers.
- Materiel losses included:
- 1 tank (typically low for recent days).
- 2 armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs).
- 35 artillery systems (about 1.5 times the daily average, considered decent).
- 1 multiple launch rocket system (MLRS).
- 1 anti-aircraft warfare (AAW) system (first in these categories for a couple of days).
- 74 vehicles and fuel tanks (below 100 but still decent).
- Overall, Jonathan observed lower numbers this week, but with hefty personnel and artillery losses.
Yakub Yanofsky's Russian and Ukrainian Loss Lists
🎦 01:11-03:17⏩
- Yakub Yanofsky's list of Russian losses totalled 74 pieces of kit, compared to the Ukrainian General Staff's 39.
- Jonathan noted that many of these reported losses, for both sides, were older incidents being updated.
- Yanofsky's list included a "really high number" of tanks, possibly indicating older losses as it would be an "insanely good day for the Ukrainians" otherwise. He estimated well over 20, possibly up to 30 tanks.
- Significant losses of BMPs, BMDs, and BTRs were also noted.
- High-value Russian losses included reconnaissance drones like Orlan-10s, Zalas, and SuperCams.
- Ukrainian losses included a Leopard 2A4 and a "usual bank" of Western-provided mobility vehicles such as Bushmasters, MaxxPros, FFG-MRAPs, Kurpis, Senators, Humvees, and a YPR-765 (a Dutch upgrade of the M113). Jonathan saw nothing too concerning here other than the Leopard 2A4.
Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Targets
🎦 03:17-05:13⏩
- Syrsky stated that over 89,000 Russian targets were struck in May using drones. Jonathan found this "massive" and "intuitively a huge number".
- However, he cautioned that without context (comparison to Russian strikes on Ukrainian targets or previous months), it's difficult to get excited.
- Divided by 30 days, this amounts to roughly 3,000 strikes per day. Jonathan explained that a single tank might be hit multiple times, and often multiple drones are needed to take out one piece of equipment.
- Many strikes are likely individual drones targeting individual soldiers, given the daily Russian personnel losses (e.g., 1,140 killed). Other targets would include bunkers, ammo depots, and buildings.
- While 3,000 strikes a day sounds impressive, Jonathan suggested it's probably what one would expect given the sheer volume of drones Ukraine is using and the daily loss statistics.
Russian Senior Officer Eliminated in Belgorod Region
🎦 05:16-05:34⏩
- Senior Lieutenant Viktor Samoilov, a Rocket Artillery Battery Commander, was killed in Russia's Belgorod region.
- As a former Sevastopol Nakhimovsky district official, he had supported Crimea's annexation in 2014, fought with a "Ba'ath unit" from 2022, and signed a contract with Russia's Ministry of Defence (MED) in 2024.
Assassination of Stavropol Deputy Mayor Zalgurtiev
🎦 05:34-10:18⏩
- Jonathan discussed the assassination of Russian Army Major Igor Zalgurtiev, Deputy Mayor of Stavropol, who was responsible for operations in Mariupol.
- Initial reports thought it was a grenade, but new details from a police investigation, reported by the VCHK OGPU Telegram channel, suggest an improvised explosive device (IED).
- Zalgurtiev reportedly met his killer, Nikita Penkov, via a gay dating website for their first discreet rendezvous. Explicit correspondence was found during the investigation.
- The IED was in Penkov's shoulder bag and contained fragmentation elements (air gun balls).
- Preliminary data suggests Penkov was hired by unknown persons to collect "dirt" on Zalgurtiev and was supplied with special equipment to transmit a picture. It is believed the IED was installed in this equipment, and Penkov may not have known he was carrying a bomb.
- Russian security forces reportedly believe Penkov was recruited by an "unknown handler" to expose Zalgurtiev as a "hidden representative of the LGBT community," which is banned in Russia.
- Penkov previously worked for the Federal Penitentiary Service until April 2025 but declined a police job offer, stating he had found a "good and highly paid job" and was doing an internship.
- No one has claimed responsibility, but Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of recruiting citizens via Telegram for sabotage attacks, sometimes leading to individuals being used as unwitting suicide bombers (e.g., Ukrainian teams recruited by Russians, or the Russian truck driver used for the Kerch Bridge bomb).
- Evidence from the scene, including a circuit board identical to those used in remote or phone-controlled barrier opening mechanisms, suggests the bomb was remotely detonated. Batteries were found in the device, and the explosion could have been triggered from a distance or via a GSM signal, reinforcing the idea of Penkov being an unwitting assassin.
- Anton Shekhovstov noted that Zalgurtiev was a Russian war criminal who commanded air operations during the capture of Mariupol.
- Jonathan emphasised the "fascinating intricacies" of this sabotage.
Strikes Inside Occupied Ukraine and Russia
🎦 10:22-12:17⏩
- A gas storage station in occupied Yenakiieve, Donetsk region, caught fire. Jonathan assumed this was due to sabotage, a drone strike, or a missile strike.
- Anton Gerashchenko reported explosions in Vladivostok, Russia, at a marine training ground in Desantnaya Bay. This is "miles away" from Ukraine, so not a direct Ukrainian strike.
- The road to the incident site was blocked, a helicopter was seen, and special and emergency services cordoned off the area.
- Local residents reportedly spotted drones, though the Regional Anti-Terrorist Commission stated the threat was "neutralised" and security measures implemented.
- Jonathan expressed doubt about a Ukrainian drone reaching Vladivostok, as it would imply Russia's entire territory is vulnerable.
- Russian Telegram channels reported two vehicles covered with tarpaulin at the site. The marine unit involved in training there is known to be fighting in Ukraine.
Russian Strikes on Ukraine (Overnight)
🎦 12:19-17:39⏩
- Jonathan noted limited information on Russian strikes, except for Kharkiv.
- The Ukrainian General Staff infographic reported 92 threats sent into Ukraine.
- Out of 90 drones, 56 were "taken out" (26 shot down, 30 suppressed by electronic warfare/lost). This means 34 (just over a third) got through, which Jonathan called a "really high proportion."
- Two Iskander-M ballistic missiles were launched, neither shot down, with no details on where they hit.
- Jonathan speculated that many drones are now being used closer to the front lines, targeting cities like Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka. He suggested these towns are "raining hell down" as a "semicircle of urban areas" in the agglomeration.
- Kharkiv: Russians hit a trolleybus depot with Shahed drones.
- Two people were injured.
- One trolleybus was completely destroyed, 18 others damaged.
- Over 30 residential buildings were damaged.
- Jonathan described this as a "massive civilian infrastructure attack" and "heinous attacks on civilians," appearing targeted given several Shaheds struck one place.
- Vasiliev Kutyr: Eight people were injured in a Russian attack.
- Izmail: Explosions were reported in Izmail, a port on the Danube River near the Romanian border.
- Russians destroyed a branch of Novoposhchia (a vital Ukrainian delivery service).
- Jonathan highlighted Novoposhchia as an "integral part of Ukrainian society" and a "success story of the war" for operating under stressful conditions.
- Kursk, Russia: Alarms and an explosion occurred last night. Russian sources claimed falling debris from a mid-air explosion injured a 27-year-old man and damaged Kursk City Hospital, but Jonathan had no details of significant damage inside Russia.
- Jonathan thought it possible Ukraine sent few drones into Russian airspace overnight.
Aftermath of Kronstadt Drone Strike in Moscow Region
🎦 17:39-19:00⏩
- Satellite imagery showed eight visible impacts from a previous drone strike on the Kronstadt facility in the Moscow region, which is involved in developing combat drones.
- Jonathan recalled video evidence of at least one drone hitting the roof of a building at the facility, making the eight impacts "no surprise."
- While some questioned if all dark spots were impacts, Jonathan reiterated that video evidence confirmed at least one explosion on the building's roof.
Russian Troop Buildup Around Kostyantynivka
🎦 19:02-22:08⏩
- According to Euromaidan Press, 60,000 Russian troops (1 in 10 of Putin's entire Ukraine force) are massing around Kostyantynivka.
- This is Ukraine's last major settlement before Kramatorsk, the final defence line in Donetsk Oblast.
- Jonathan explained the Russian tactic: sending waves of troops (e.g., 150 motorcycle troops) to hit a village, sustaining heavy losses, followed immediately by more forces.
- Ukraine anticipates this, with 12 of their best brigades holding a 30-kilometre defensive arc around Kostyantynivka, setting the stage for one of the war's biggest battles.
- Jonathan acknowledged the "doom and gloom" predictions (e.g., Donbas falling by autumn). However, he remains "a little more sceptical," noting it took Russians 15 months to advance 30 miles from Avdiivka at "insane losses."
- He believes that while Russians could reach Kramatorsk, it would come at "insane costs."
Russian Effectiveness with FPV Drones
🎦 22:09-23:02⏩
- Jonathan highlighted a key difference in the current war compared to previous periods: Russia's improved use of FPV (First-Person View) drones.
- He noted they are doing a "better job at hammering the Ukrainian logistics" with increased range or fibre-optic drones, used "much more effectively."
Concerns for Kharkiv and Sumy: Potential "Human Safari"
🎦 23:02-24:20⏩
- Jonathan expressed serious worry for Kharkiv and Sumy, seeing similarities to Russia's "human safari" tactics previously seen in Kherson.
- He believes the current situation looks like a "dry run" for Sumy and Kharkiv, as Russian forces are now close enough to send drones into these major cities and "cause absolute freaking havoc" for Ukrainian civilians.
- Kharkiv, as Ukraine's second-biggest city, becoming a "ghost town" would severely impact Ukraine economically and morally.
- Deep State Monitoring Group reported Russian forces are only 27 kilometres from the Ukrainian army's front line in the Kharkiv region.
Ukrainian Conscription Issues
🎦 24:20-26:07⏩
- Euromaidan Press reported a crowd surrounding a draft office vehicle in Ukraine's Khmelnytskyi Oblast after an alleged incident where officials beat a young man and struck a woman with a car.
- Jonathan acknowledged that "as morale is here, as things get more difficult," Ukraine desperately needs people to serve, and draft dodgers will emerge.
- He defended the need for firm action, explaining that if individuals are called up for the draft, are in the age bracket, and are needed, then evading the draft is breaking the law.
- Therefore, he argued, draft evaders should expect to be apprehended similarly to criminals, rather than being politely asked to comply.
- Jonathan regretted that such incidents provide "ammunition" for Russian and pro-Russian propaganda, but acknowledged it's "not good news for Ukrainian PR."
Canadian-Funded Project Mapping Russian "Children's Gulags"
🎦 26:07-26:55⏩
- Jonathan highlighted "bad PR for the Russians" involving "war crimes" and a "children's gulag."
- Mark MacKinnon's piece in The Globe and Mail detailed a Canadian-funded project mapping Russia's network of camps where abducted Ukrainian children are being held.
- This work aims to help bring some of the children home and sheds light on Russia's "modern-day gulags."
- Jonathan noted this is why Putin and his Children's Minister have International Criminal Court arrest warrants against them.
Russian POW with Nazi Tattoos
🎦 26:55-27:34⏩
- A newly captured Russian POW on the southern front was found with Nazi tattoos, including swastikas, the German eagle, and the inscription "Rus."
- Jonathan pointed out the hypocrisy of Russian accusations of "Ukraine Nazis," stating, "just let's wonder who really are the Nazis here."
Poland's Confrontation with Russian Tanker
🎦 27:34-27:56⏩
- Polish authorities forced a Russian-owned tanker, the Sun, away from an area where it was attempting to drag its anchor through the Poland-Sweden 600-gigawatt power cable.
- Poland dispatched a fighter jet to "buzz" the tanker and a fast-moving patrol ship to "scare the tanker off."
- Jonathan praised Poland's "good stuff" and "strength" in making it clear such behaviour would not be tolerated.
Russia Providing Pantsir Air Defence System to North Korea
🎦 27:56-29:52⏩
- News reports indicate Russia has provided North Korea with a Pantsir air defence system as part of payment for received ballistic missiles (reportedly around 100) and "voluminous quantities" of artillery ammunition.
- A report by the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team, distributed by South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, states Moscow transferred at least one mobile Pantsir and one combat vehicle of the same class to Pyongyang since November 2024.
- Jonathan highlighted this as a "clear violation of UN sanctions."
- He questioned the effectiveness of sanctions and the role of the UN Security Council, stating, "sanctions are pointless, the UN is pointless if they don't do anything about it." He called for the UN to "mobilise into doing something about Russia."
The Russian Economy: "Barely Managed Decline"
🎦 29:52-34:44⏩
- The Kyiv Post published an assessment from Vladimir Lugovsky, an economist at Indiana University, stating the Russian economy is in a "barely managed decline."
- Despite Kremlin assurances of stability, "real data paints a very different and far more dangerous picture":
- Soaring inflation.
- Shrinking key industries.
- Continuing sharp decline of the rouble.
- Financial strain from the war.
- Isolation by sanctions and disconnection from global markets.
- Lugovsky warned that underlying economic fundamentals are "eroding rapidly" and could trigger widespread unrest, describing it as a "controlled demolition of long-term viability."
- Jonathan agreed, believing the Russian economy is "much worse state than people understand," and that Russia is doing a "good job of hiding that." He suggested their "war footing" is a "veneer" covering greater degradation or "rot."
- A "Kiev insider" reported banks are under strain, foreign investment has vanished, and the regime is "cannibalising sovereign reserves" to stabilise things.
- Official decrees from late April show Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank, and Sovcombank receiving "massive long-term deposits" from the state's National Wealth Fund (NWF), originally for pensions and economic stability.
- The NWF is now a "bailout mechanism" for sanctioned, regime-linked financial institutions.
- Funds are given as subordinated deposits maturing in 2049 with a symbolic 1% interest rate, giving banks incentive to "sit on the funds" rather than spend them. Terms prohibit early repayment or withdrawal.
- This follows a December 2024 legislative change allowing NWF money into commercial banks via subordinated deposits, previously restricted to the state development bank VEB.RF.
- These transfers coincide with the "financial closure" of a 1.788 trillion rouble rail project linking Russia's two largest cities.
- Jonathan concluded that the Kremlin's decision to drain the NWF highlights "growing desperation inside Russia's economic leadership" as inflation climbs and war costs mount, turning a "strategic reserve" into a "lifeline for institutions too politically important to fail."
NATO Air Power Advantage Against Russia
- A new US Air Force-commissioned RAND report suggests NATO and US forces would have a "clear edge" over Russia in a conventional war, primarily due to air power.
- The analysis indicated NATO would quickly achieve air superiority, allowing it to strike Russian forces, disrupt logistics, and influence the battlefield.
- Jonathan's personal opinion is that the Russian army and air force have been "somewhat shafted by the war in Ukraine," having "really done themselves in."
- He finds the idea of Russia quickly moving to take Baltic states or fight NATO after a Ukrainian capitulation "fanciful," as he believes NATO would "absolutely get air superiority first and foremost."
- While Russia has "nuclear saber rattling," Jonathan asserts NATO would "easily get one over the Russians if it actually came to it."
- He considers a "full Ukrainian capitulation" where Russia gains control of Ukraine's defence industry and people "never going to happen."
- Jonathan concludes that it would be "absolute insanity and suicide for Russia to pick another fight with someone else," as he doesn't believe they are in a position to do so.
Awards for Ukrainian Military Intelligence (GUR) Officers
🎦 37:06-37:33⏩
- Jonathan briefly mentioned that the Golden Officer's Cross of the Order for Merit to Poland was awarded to a successful leader in international cooperation (the name was not entirely clear in transcript but likely a reference to Kyrylo Budanov, Head of GUR).
- The Cavalier's Cross of the Order for Merit to Poland was also awarded to Deputy Chief of the GUR, Vadym Skibitskyi.
- Jonathan admired the "pretty ostentatious" medal, expressing "Good stuff" for Poland's recognition.
Wrap up
🎦 37:34-38:54⏩
- Jonathan thanked "Ivan" for sending a "Car for Ukraine" T-shirt and patches.
- The T-shirt reads, "Ukraine, capital of great people," which Jonathan loved for its subtle meanings, implying both Kyiv as a capital and Ukraine being a nation of great people.
- He praised Car for Ukraine for their "amazing job in supporting the troops on the front line" and thanked his viewers for supporting these efforts.
- He signed off, promising to speak soon.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I believe there's a mis-transcription in topic ID 20. The first award mention ("Golden Officer's Cross of the Order for Merit to Poland") was awarded to the Head of the GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, rather than just "a successful leader in the world of international cooperation." The following sentence then correctly names Vadym Skibitskyi as receiving the Cavalier's Cross. It would be helpful to confirm the correct recipient for the first award.
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