Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News

"Europe's behaviour since Russia invaded is morally reprehensible. When I post these charts, it's clear that the citizens in Europe don't want this. They want moral leadership. They want politicians who do the right thing."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:23⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine War News Update, the second part for 8th October 2024. He mentions he has a live stream shortly.

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EU considers bypassing Hungary's veto on Ukraine funding

🎦 00:23-02:23⏩

Jonathan discusses a Bloomberg article reporting that EU officials are exploring ways to bypass Hungary's veto on Ukraine funding. The veto has blocked over €6.6 billion in aid, causing frustration among member states. One proposed solution involves allowing voluntary contributions to the European Peace Facility, requiring consent from contributors instead of unanimous support. Jonathan highlights Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's increasingly vocal opposition to aiding Ukraine and his close ties to the Kremlin. He notes the EU's disapproval of Orban's diplomatic visit to Moscow for talks with Putin in July, followed by trips to China to meet Xi Jinping and Mar-a-Lago to meet Donald Trump. This diplomatic freelancing has been condemned by other EU members. Jonathan observes that Hungary's stance has prompted discussions on how to protect aid from future vetoes, with seven packages totalling €3.5 billion already approved by the EPF since Russia's full-scale invasion, in addition to €2 billion for ammunition. He expresses concern that this issue will continue to rumble on.

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France to deliver Mirage 2000 fighter jets to Ukraine

🎦 02:23-03:35⏩

Jonathan reports that France will provide Ukraine with Mirage 2000 fighter jets, as announced by French Defence Minister Sébastien Le Cornu. Delivery is scheduled for the first quarter of 2025. While originally planned for the end of 2024, Jonathan considers this delay understandable given the time needed to train pilots and maintenance crews, and establish logistics. He views the first quarter of 2025 as a decent timeframe. Jonathan highlights that the Mirage 2000s, initially designed for air-to-air combat, will be equipped with new technology for air-to-ground combat and anti-electronic warfare defence. He notes that while France will supply six jets, Ukraine could potentially acquire more from other countries.

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Norway increases support for Ukraine to $12.7 billion over three years

🎦 03:35-05:08⏩

Jonathan reports that the Norwegian government has proposed a substantial increase in its support for Ukraine, reaching $12.7 billion over the next three years. He considers this commitment "insanely impressive" given Norway's GDP and population size. He emphasises that this funding, intended for both military and civilian support, as well as infrastructure restoration, represents a minimum amount that could increase based on Ukraine's needs, as stated by Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre. Jonathan acknowledges comments from viewers like Stephen Bennet, suggesting Norway is in a position to contribute even more due to its wealth, particularly from its Sovereign Wealth Fund and hydrocarbon resources. Jonathan contrasts Norway's approach to managing its oil wealth with that of the UK, arguing that Norway's decision to establish a Sovereign Wealth Fund has been more beneficial in the long term compared to the UK's reliance on the free market. He concludes by reiterating Norway's capacity to provide greater support to Ukraine compared to other nations.

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Germany to supply 21 mine-clearing tanks to Ukraine

🎦 05:08-06:27⏩

Citing Hartpunkt, a source specialising in security and defence policy, and an unnamed industry newsletter, Jonathan reports that the German government plans to supply Ukraine with 21 additional mine-clearing tanks. These tanks, known as Bergepanzer 2 ARVs (Armoured Recovery Vehicles), will be drawn from existing Bundeswehr stocks and converted into mine-clearing vehicles by the German industry. Jonathan suggests these are likely to be the Wiesent-1 MC mine-clearing tanks, 52 of which have already been supplied to Ukraine. Based on the Leopard 1 chassis and fitted with route-opening mine ploughs from Pearson Engineering, these tanks have proven highly effective for Ukraine in operations like the Kharkiv offensive. Jonathan highlights that if these reports are accurate, Ukraine's Wiesent-1 fleet will increase to 72, with only one known loss to date. He praises Germany for this contribution and hints at further discussion about their support later in the video.

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Slovakian citizens crowdfund ammunition for Ukraine

🎦 06:27-08:17⏩

Jonathan discusses how Slovakian citizens have crowdfunded ammunition for Ukraine. This initiative arose from frustration with the Slovakian government's decision to limit its support to non-lethal military aid. While Slovakia continues to sell equipment to Ukraine, it has refrained from providing outright military aid packages, as confirmed in a meeting between Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico. Jonathan notes that while Slovakia has agreed to increase non-lethal aid, such as helmets, body armour, and medical supplies, citizens dissatisfied with this level of support took matters into their own hands. They successfully raised €4 million (equivalent to even more in dollars) to purchase 122 tonnes of artillery ammunition. This act of solidarity, involving donations from over 70,000 Slovaks, took 4-5 months from fundraising to delivery. The remaining €500,000 will be used to buy grenade launcher rounds by the year's end. Jonathan expresses admiration for the Slovakian people's commitment to supporting Ukraine.

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Slovakia to increase production of 155 mm shells

🎦 08:17-09:51⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukraine has signed an agreement to boost the production of 155 mm shells in Slovakia. Following his meeting with Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal revealed this deal, indicating involvement from another European partner to finance the increased production. Jonathan criticises Fico's justification for limiting Slovakia's military aid to Ukraine, where Fico claims it's morally wrong for the Slovakian government to directly provide such assistance. Jonathan argues that this stance is hypocritical, given Slovakia's willingness to sell military equipment to Ukraine. He points out the inconsistency in condemning the act while profiting from it, drawing a parallel to condoning murder for financial gain.

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Three ways countries can fund Ukraine

🎦 09:51-13:46⏩

Jonathan explains the three primary ways countries can fund Ukraine, using Denmark and the UK as examples.

• The best way, particularly for countries like Denmark with limited defence industries that do not produce what Ukraine currently needs, is to invest directly in Ukraine's economy. This approach allows Ukraine to purchase necessary equipment while simultaneously boosting its economy, creating jobs, and generating tax revenue.
• The second-best option, employed by the UK, involves providing financial aid with the stipulation that it be spent on equipment produced domestically. This approach, exemplified by the UK's recent £3.5 billion (or $4.6 billion) aid package, serves a dual purpose: supporting Ukraine's military needs while simultaneously bolstering the UK's own defence industry. Jonathan clarifies that this funding will likely be used to purchase equipment from companies like Sheffield Forgemasters, which was nationalised by the UK Ministry of Defence in 2021 and currently holds contracts for artillery gun barrel forging.
• The third and least preferable method involves countries like Denmark purchasing equipment from third-party nations like the US and then transferring it to Ukraine. This approach is typically used for items that neither the donor country nor Ukraine produces, such as Patriot air defence systems.

Jonathan acknowledges that while direct economic investment in Ukraine is generally the most beneficial approach, the specific circumstances, such as Ukraine's need for Patriot systems, might necessitate the third method.

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Ukraine unveils new generation of 'Sea Baby' drones

🎦 13:46-15:05⏩

Jonathan reports that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has released footage of its new generation 'Sea Baby' drones in action. These multi-purpose drones can carry various weapon systems, including multiple launch rocket systems, and have the capability to remotely deploy mines in water. Jonathan highlights a key advantage: unlike single-use kamikaze drones, Sea Babies can return to base after completing their missions. He suggests potential tactical uses for these drones, such as deploying them in the Black Sea to target Russian bombers or laying mines near Russian naval bases like Novorossiysk to disrupt shipping lanes and trap Russian vessels.

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Ukraine grants funding for domestic missile production

🎦 15:05-16:12⏩

Jonathan reveals that Ukraine has begun providing grants to boost domestic missile production. This information comes from Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's Minister of Digital Transformation, who, in an interview with Military News UA, disclosed that the Brave One cluster, an initiative focusing on military tech development, has seen increased investment this year. Fedorov also hinted at plans to issue grants for powder factories next year. Jonathan believes this signifies Ukraine's commitment to securing long-range missiles, reducing its reliance on foreign aid and enabling it to strike strategic targets deeper into Russian territory. He reiterates the importance of targeting Russian port infrastructure, naval vessels in Novorossiysk, and airbases used for bombing campaigns. Jonathan expresses frustration that, while Ukraine has been successful in many areas, the US seems reluctant to allow them to fully neutralise these airbases, hindering Ukraine's progress in achieving this crucial objective.

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Denmark delivers final seven high-rescue lifts to Ukraine

🎦 16:12-16:46⏩

Jonathan announces that Denmark has delivered the last seven high-rescue lifts to Ukraine, bringing the total donation to 18 since June 2024. These 45-meter lifts have proven invaluable in responding to Russian attacks on high-rise apartment blocks, highlighting their humanitarian impact. He praises Denmark's consistent support for Ukraine, ranking them highly in terms of aid provided as a percentage of GDP.

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Cuba applies to join BRICS

🎦 16:46-17:27⏩

Jonathan shifts to geopolitical news, reporting that Cuba has formally applied to join BRICS, following a recent trend of other nations seeking membership. While he acknowledges some concerns regarding the inclusion of countries like Zimbabwe, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, he considers Cuba's membership bid less alarming. However, Jonathan ponders the potential long-term implications of BRICS expansion, suggesting that the bloc's significance in 50 years should not be underestimated and may necessitate a strategic response.

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European exports to Russia via Kyrgyzstan

🎦 17:27-18:58⏩

Jonathan discusses a graph shared by economist Robin Brooks highlighting the hypocrisy of European nations continuing to trade with Russia despite condemning the invasion of Ukraine. The graph specifically focuses on exports to Kyrgyzstan, which Jonathan believes are ultimately destined for Russia. Brooks criticizes this behaviour as morally reprehensible, pointing out that European citizens deserve moral leadership and politicians who act in accordance with their values. He calls for a significant overhaul of European policies. Jonathan acknowledges the influence of economic interests, observing that "money talks" and often overshadows moral considerations. He expresses disappointment that many European countries, including Germany, Poland, Czechia, Italy, Austria, and Spain, prioritize financial gains over taking a principled stance against Russia's actions. Jonathan observes trends in the graph, noting Poland's recent decrease in exports, possibly linked to the new government led by Donald Tusk, and the continued rise of exports from Italy.

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Rumours of emergency at the Kremlin

🎦 18:58-19:46⏩

Jonathan shares unverified reports from Russian Telegram channels about three emergency motorcades, including police and ambulances, rushing to the Kremlin. While acknowledging the lack of reliable sources and potential for misinformation, he speculates on the cause, referencing Putin's birthday and expressing a desire to see the "war criminals kick the bucket". Jonathan acknowledges the need for caution when dealing with such unconfirmed information but finds the presence of multiple emergency motorcades intriguing and suggestive of a significant event.

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Russia's demands for ending the war

🎦 19:46-20:07⏩

Jonathan reports on Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's recent interview with Newsweek. Lavrov outlined Russia's conditions for ending the war, including Ukraine's demilitarisation, neutrality, abandonment of NATO aspirations, and recognition of Russia's territorial claims. Jonathan simply responds with a sarcastic "Of course, Lavrov did that," highlighting the absurdity and unacceptability of Russia's demands.

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Kamala Harris refuses to meet Putin without Ukraine's presence

🎦 20:07-21:52⏩

Jonathan reports on US Vice President Kamala Harris' statement that she would not meet with Vladimir Putin to discuss the war in Ukraine without Ukrainian representatives present. He commends Harris' strong stance in supporting Ukraine's right to self-determination, contrasting it with what he perceives as a Trumpian approach that would sideline Ukraine in negotiations. Jonathan praises Harris for emphasizing Ukraine's agency in shaping its own future, ensuring they remain central to any peace talks or agreements. Jonathan acknowledges criticism that Harris has been hesitant to address NATO expansion, particularly in light of Lavrov's comments on the issue. However, he notes a shift in the Biden administration's rhetoric, with Biden recently expressing openness to Ukraine joining NATO after previously dismissing the possibility. He believes that NATO membership for Ukraine remains a possibility under the current US administration and potentially the next. Jonathan reiterates his frustration that while the US, under Biden and Harris, has affirmed Ukraine's right to decide its own future, this stance is not shared by Russia, lamenting the lack of such clear messaging from the other side of the conflict.

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Tucker Carlson's interview with Elon Musk

🎦 21:52-24:04⏩

Jonathan discusses Tucker Carlson's interview with Elon Musk, which took place after Carlson's departure from Fox News and the launch of his new show on Elon Musk's platform X (formerly Twitter). Jonathan highlights that the interview, funded by the pro-Russia Heritage Foundation, has sparked controversy due to its content and the individuals involved. He expresses concern about Musk's statement, "If he loses, I'm fucked", interpreting it as fear of repercussions should Donald Trump lose the upcoming election. Jonathan contrasts Musk's anxieties with his previous claims about the 2020 election being rigged, suggesting that Musk's current fears reveal a lack of seriousness and a dismissive attitude towards the potential threat to democracy posed by Trump. He criticizes Musk's flippant demeanour, comparing it to someone unconcerned about potential prison sentences or the well-being of their children. Jonathan also points out the irony of Musk's position as a government contractor through Starlink, a crucial communication system for the US military and Ukraine, despite his seemingly pro-Russian sympathies and anxieties about a potential Trump loss.

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Elon Musk's comments on Kamala Harris and Joe Biden

🎦 24:04-24:53⏩

Jonathan critiques a segment from Tucker Carlson's interview with Elon Musk where Musk dismisses the possibility of anyone trying to harm US Vice President Kamala Harris. Musk, according to Jonathan, calls her "Kamala" in a juvenile and disrespectful manner, echoing Trump's communication style. Jonathan criticizes this as a deliberate mispronunciation aimed at diminishing Harris. He expresses disbelief at Musk's assertion that no one would bother trying to harm Harris because it's "pointless", as if she's a "puppet" and not a significant political figure. Jonathan labels Musk's behaviour as "deep and true" and mocks his logic by applying it to President Biden, stating that, by Musk's reasoning, no one would try to harm Biden either because it's equally "pointless". He concludes by expressing his contempt for Musk, calling him a "twat".

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Jackson Hinkle's pro-Russian stance

🎦 24:53-25:46⏩

Jonathan shifts his focus to Jackson Hinkle, a commentator who gained notoriety at the beginning of the war for his pro-Russian stance. He criticizes Hinkle for posting what he sees as pro-Russian propaganda and disinformation, highlighting a post where Hinkle wishes Putin a happy birthday and commemorates the anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel. Jonathan expresses concern over the algorithms promoting Hinkle's content despite its designation as disinformation through community notes. He suggests that only Russian trolls and bots could support Hinkle's views, characterizing him as an "American working as a Russian agent without facing any consequences."

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Jonathan recommends 'Autocracy Inc.' by Anne Applebaum

🎦 25:46-26:36⏩

Jonathan recommends Anne Applebaum's interview on The Bulwark, a publication focusing on political analysis and commentary. He praises Applebaum and fellow guest Elliot Cohen, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), for their insights. Jonathan highlights Applebaum's book "Autocracy Inc." which he recently purchased and intends to listen to soon. He explains that the book delves into the interconnectedness of autocratic regimes worldwide, a topic he frequently discusses on his channel. He notes the links between figures like Viktor Orbán, Donald Trump, Robert Fico, and regimes in Iran, North Korea, and China, all of whom Applebaum explores in her book.

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Jonathan shares his book recommendations

🎦 26:36-29:37⏩

Jonathan shares his reading list, featuring books he's recently enjoyed or plans to read. He clarifies that he primarily listens to audiobooks through Kobo, opting for this platform over Amazon. His recommendations include:

• "Twilight of Democracy" by Anne Applebaum
• "Kleptopia" by Tom Burgis
• "Killer in the Kremlin" by John Sweeney
• "The Gates of Europe" by Serhii Plokhy
• "How to Win Every Argument" by Mehdi Hassan
• "On Tyranny" and "On Ukraine" by Timothy Snyder
• "Blowout" by Rachel Maddow
• "Invasion: Russia's Bloody War and Ukraine's Fight for Survival" by Luke Harding
• "The Russia-Ukraine War" by Serhii Plokhy
• He advises against reading "Putin's Playbook", which he found to be poorly written, biased propaganda.
• "Putin's Prisoner" by John Sweeney and Aiden Aslin
• "Fascism: A Warning" by Madeleine Albright
• "Putin's Trolls" by Jessikka Aro
• "Overreach: The Inside Story of Putin's War" by Owen Matthews
• "Open On My Own Terms" by Liz Cheney
• "Live Fight and Survive" by Shaun Pinner

Jonathan mentions he's currently reading "Politics On The Edge" by Rory Stewart but has paused it to prioritize "Character Limit," a book about Elon Musk's Twitter acquisition. He plans to follow this with Applebaum's "Autocracy Inc." and then return to Stewart's book. He also expresses a keen interest in Robert Sapolsky's "Determined," a topic closely related to his own philosophical work on free will, having been impressed by Sapolsky's "Behave," and "The Biggest Ideas in the Universe: Space, Time, and Motion" by Sean Carroll.

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Wrap up

🎦 29:37-31:55⏩

Jonathan concludes his book recommendations, urging viewers to check them out if they're seeking a deeper understanding of the situation in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical landscape. He particularly emphasizes Anne Applebaum's "Autocracy Inc." as his next read.

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