Ukraine Conflict: 3-Day Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"The only way, the only option I see for Ukraine being able to militarily take substantial areas back is through a complete collapse of Russia. And that would have to be on the back of economic collapse, massive economic collapse and a regime change."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:22⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a Ukraine War Frontline update, noting it's been three days since his last update (22nd November 2024). He anticipates a lot of pins on the map, predominantly Russian, indicating their advances.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Mapping Explanation & Source
🎦 00:22-01:02⏩
Jonathan reminds viewers he uses a synthesis of maps from Andrew Perpetua (blue) and Suriyak Maps (red), with his own lines representing Russian defensive lines and pins indicating changes to these lines from both sources.
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Northeastern Front: Russian Defensive Line Changes (Perpetua & Suriyak)
🎦 01:02-02:49⏩
- Jonathan explains Perpetua's map shows Russian defensive lines east of a grey zone leading to Ukrainian lines.
- He notes changes in Russian lines, with pink signifying Perpetua's marking of Russian gains in the past three days.
- Suriyak's map shows a different Russian defensive line, with red marking their gains and a grey zone before Ukrainian lines.
- Suriyak also indicates Ukrainian gains north-east of Martynivka, pushing Russian defenses back, which contradicts Perpetua's analysis.
Discrepancies in Mapping (Perpetua vs Suriyak)
🎦 02:49-03:28⏩
- Jonathan highlights Perpetua's map lacks light blue pins (indicating Ukrainian pushback of Russian defenses), implying no Russian losses according to Perpetua.
- Conversely, Suriyak's map shows significant dark pink pins, representing substantial Russian gains, creating a discrepancy between the two sources.
Kursk Oblast: Russian Offensive & Ukrainian Resistance
🎦 03:28-04:01⏩
- In the Kursk Oblast's western sector, Russians are pushing back Ukrainian forces south of Malaya-Lotkinia, attempting to cut off Ukrainian troops in that area.
- Ukrainians are putting up strong resistance, utilizing advanced tanks (Challengers, Abrams, Leopards) witnessed in the region.
Kursk Oblast: Russian Advances and Ukrainian Losses
🎦 04:01-05:19⏩
- Jonathan points out Ukrainians have been pushed back significantly (around 40%) from their previous positions near Koronevo and Kulushkovo.
- He notes geolocated footage confirms Ukrainian presence with multiple units despite Russian claims of repelling the attack. Sources Kruglik and Suriyak Maps agree with this analysis.
Kharkiv: Unconfirmed Russian Pushback
🎦 05:19-05:47⏩
Jonathan mentions unconfirmed reports of Russians being pushed back in unspecified Kharkiv areas, but clarifies his usual sources don't reflect these changes.
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Oskil River: Strategic Importance and Russian Objectives
🎦 05:47-07:26⏩
- Jonathan highlights the Oskil River's strategic importance, marking the northeastern frontline from Kupyansk to Kramina, then southwards to Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
- He outlines Russia's objective to control land east of the Oskil River, aiming to push Ukrainian forces behind the river and utilize it as a natural defensive barrier.
Oskil River: Geographical Challenges and Limited Russian Progress
🎦 07:26-08:26⏩
- Jonathan explains the challenging terrain along the Oskil River north of Kupyansk, with bluffs west of the river providing a defensive advantage to Ukrainians, limiting Russian advancements in that region.
- He contrasts this with the southern part of the river, where flatter terrain makes it easier for Russian forces to cross.
- Suriyak's map indicates Russians have reached the Oskil River in this southern section, skirting settlements on the western bank, marking a potential shift in the conflict dynamics.
Oskil River Crossing: Russian Advance near Dvorichna
🎦 08:26-09:59⏩
- Jonathan expresses concern over the Russian crossing of the Oskil River south of Novyi Mlynsk, confirmed by both Perpetua and DeepState maps.
- Russians have taken positions from a Ukrainian brigade, leading to increased artillery and mortar fire in the area (north of Dvorichna).
- This advance raises concerns about a potential Russian foothold and further pushes towards Ukrainian settlements, adding to the pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
Kupiansk: Status Quo and Minor Russian Gains
🎦 09:59-10:23⏩
- Jonathan notes no changes in Pisky-Radkivski and south of Kupiansk, offering a glimmer of positive news for Ukrainians.
- Suriyak's map indicates minor Russian gains south of Pisky-Radkivski, near Pershotravneve and Kopanky, highlighting continued pressure on Ukrainian positions.
Terny: Conflicting Reports and Potential Ukrainian Counteroffensive
🎦 10:23-11:21⏩
- Jonathan addresses conflicting reports surrounding the village of Terny, where Suriyak shows Russian gains but the source "GreySkull" reports successful Ukrainian counterattacks.
- Visual analysis of the maps suggests Ukrainians might have retaken some territory, potentially pushing north from Terny, but there are inconsistencies between sources regarding the exact area.
Siversk, Northern Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar: No Significant Changes
🎦 11:21-12:11⏩
- Jonathan observes no changes on the Siversk Front, Northern Bakhmut Front, and Chasiv Yar in the past three days, a positive sign for Ukrainian defenses.
- He emphasizes the strategic importance of holding Chasiv Yar to protect larger cities like Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka, and Kramatorsk.
Andriivka: Russian Control East of the Canal
🎦 12:11-12:47⏩
- Jonathan confirms Russians now control the previously contested pocket of land around Andriivka, east of the canal leading down to Kurdyumivka.
- This development was expected as Ukrainians were pushed back across the canal, giving Russians control of the eastern bank from Kurdyumivka down to Mayorsk.
Southern Front: Russian Gains and Ukrainian Defensive Lines
🎦 12:47-14:19⏩
- Jonathan reports no changes in Toretsk and New York over the past three days.
- He notes Russian gains south of Sukha Balka, pushing towards Zhovte in the direction of Pryvillia, approaching what is believed to be Ukraine's main defensive line.
- He expresses concern about Russian advances near Novotroitske, potentially breaching Ukrainian fortifications and moving close to the main trench line.
- Suriyak's map highlights the extent of Russian gains over the three-day period, pushing westward towards Novotroitske, while Perpetua's map shows a more defined Russian defensive line along a railway line and gully.
Donetsk Oblast: Russian Advances along the Reservoir
🎦 14:19-15:20⏩
- Jonathan describes consistent Russian gains further south, advancing around the Krakove (Vovcha) River reservoir, pushing through Illinka.
- He expresses concerns about Russians reaching the west of the reservoir, potentially flanking Ukrainian fortifications around Vuhledar from the east.
- Russian forces seem poised to capture the entire area, reaching further south and raising alarms about the speed of their advance.
Donetsk Oblast: Russian Momentum and Pressure on Velyka Novosilka
🎦 15:20-16:33⏩
- Jonathan describes substantial Russian gains along villages lining the river's low ground, pushing constantly towards Ust-P'yatikhatky and advancing from both the south and north.
- Zhelne appears to be firmly under Russian control, allowing them to target Ukrainian fortified lines and advance along them, placing significant pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
- The overall situation appears concerning, with Ukrainian forces being pushed back and Russian advances progressing rapidly in the region.
Velyka Novosilka: Imminent Threat and Russian Progress
🎦 16:33-17:32⏩
- Jonathan highlights the serious threat to Velyka Novosilka, with Russian forces less than 500 meters from the town's outskirts.
- He retraces the frontline's changes, illustrating the extent of Russian advances filling in the area towards Velyka Novosilka.
- Jonathan expresses concern over the rapid Russian progress and the pressure on Ukrainian defenses in this area.
Velyka Novosilka: Russian Control and Trench Breaches
🎦 17:32-18:14⏩
- Jonathan details Russian control of eastern warehouses in Velyka Novosilka, captured trenches east of the Kashlagach River, and their advance north of the main trench system northeast of the town.
- These breaches in Ukrainian defenses are worrisome, indicating a potential collapse of defenses in the region.
- The overall picture looks bleak for Ukrainians in this area.
Analysis: Russian Capabilities and Costs of the Offensive
🎦 18:14-19:54⏩
- Jonathan ponders the remaining Russian capacity for further offensives, acknowledging their ability to advance and hold captured ground.
- He contrasts the seemingly slow progress (taking over a year to capture the territory) with the high costs paid in manpower and resources by the Russians.
- While acknowledging the seriousness of the situation for Ukrainians, he highlights the significant price Russia is paying for its territorial gains.
Strategic Implications and Potential for Ukrainian Recapture
🎦 19:54-21:20⏩
- Jonathan analyzes the strategic implications of Russia's territorial control (almost 20% of Ukraine plus Crimea), suggesting it could be used as leverage in potential negotiations.
- He believes Russia is unlikely to relinquish Crimea unless a regime change occurs, implying diplomacy is crucial for Ukraine to regain the lost territory.
- He sees a full-scale Russian collapse (economic and political) as the only scenario enabling Ukraine to retake significant territory militarily.
Ukrainian Needs and Potential Future Scenarios
🎦 21:20-22:11⏩
- Jonathan outlines Ukraine's urgent need for long-range weapons (ballistic and cruise missiles) to target Russian resources and disrupt their supply lines.
- He contemplates potential outcomes, suggesting a stalemate and eventual diplomacy are more likely than a complete Russian collapse.
- He acknowledges the dire situation while emphasizing the importance of inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces.
Wrap up
🎦 22:11-22:14⏩
- Jonathan concludes the video by reiterating concern over Russia's western advance across the Oskil River north of Kupiansk.
- He encourages viewers to share their thoughts and feedback.
- He signs off with a "Take care and I'll speak to you soon."
