Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News

"Right, now you're going to the front line. To fight for the Russian army. Now that you're a Russian citizen. You are almost certainly going to either be killed or maimed. In the next, like, 8 months. So, thanks for that."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-02:22⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to part two of the update. He is feeling more upbeat than the previous video after watching footage of the situation in Bakhmut and Novomokrivka. He reflects that more military aid is needed for Ukraine and the gravity of the situation is not being acknowledged globally, hence the lack of ammunition. He mentions his latest article "Dealing with the Demons of Disinformation" for only Sky, which discusses AI and technology and its role in combatting disinformation.

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Ukraine to Build 1 Million Drones in 2024

🎦 02:22-03:12⏩

Jonathan discusses President Zelensky's announcement that Ukraine will produce one million drones in 2024, giving them a significant advantage over Russia. He notes this production will include long-range drones, impacting the front lines and potentially striking Russian territory. Jonathan considers creating a video detailing the resources Ukraine needs to succeed.

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Timothy Snyder's Safe Skies Initiative Raises $950,000

🎦 03:12-04:14⏩

Jonathan highlights the success of Professor Timothy Snyder's fundraising campaign, which has raised $950,000 for Ukraine's "Safe Skies" initiative via United24. This funding will provide 2,500 sensors to enhance air defence capabilities in Sumy, Odesa, and Mykolaiv (in the Mykolaiv Oblast) by detecting and predicting the trajectories of drones and missiles, creating a protective corridor for these areas and regions beyond.

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Timothy Snyder Launches New Fundraising Drive

🎦 04:14-05:04⏩

Timothy Snyder aims to raise a further $950,000 to bolster the "Safe Skies" initiative in four more oblasts: Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Poltava, and Cherkasy. Jonathan endorses United24 as a reputable, state-run charity. He acknowledges that whilst there are numerous charities supporting Ukraine, he tends to contribute to various, reputable ones and highlights the importance of transparency, such as Konstantine's videos showcasing the drones purchased through donations in action.

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Japan to Shift Defence Export Rules, Potentially Sending Patriot Missiles to Ukraine

🎦 06:18-07:14⏩

Japan is poised to shift its defence export regulations, a move that could facilitate the transfer of Patriot missiles to Ukraine. Jonathan explains that Japan's historical context as a nation with a "defence force" rather than an army has shaped its unique military approach and export policies, but this appears to be changing. The US has requested a dozen Patriot missiles, either to be sent directly to Ukraine or to backfill US supplies subsequently provided to Ukraine.

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US to Provide $150 Million for Ukraine's Digital Transformation

🎦 07:14-08:45⏩

Jonathan discusses the US allocation of $150 million over five years to support Ukraine's digital transformation programme, emphasizing that this aid likely comes with conditions and is part of a broader economic strategy. He draws parallels with Denmark's support for the Mykolaiv Oblast, where Danish investment in reconstruction brings mutual benefits. He highlights that investing in Ukraine offers long-term advantages, particularly in areas like shipbuilding in Mykolaiv, which could yield significant returns for the maritime industry in countries like Denmark. Jonathan emphasizes that such initiatives are not about replacing domestic investment but rather about fostering mutually beneficial partnerships and recognizing the moral and economic imperative of supporting Ukraine's rebuilding.

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US Military Aid to Ukraine Totals $23 Billion

🎦 08:45-10:46⏩

Jonathan addresses concerns regarding US aid to Ukraine, reiterating that the $23 billion provided thus far constitutes a small fraction of the US federal budget. He emphasizes the strategic benefits for the US, such as the opportunity to upgrade its own military equipment by replacing older systems sent to Ukraine, as highlighted by retired US Army General John Ferrari. Jonathan emphasizes the multifaceted nature of US aid, encompassing economic stimulus, bolstering Ukraine's defence, and strengthening US defence capabilities. He encourages viewers to refer to his previous video ("Extra" from the previous day) and articles from Euromaidan Press for further analysis.

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Discussion About Sale of US Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Morocco

🎦 10:46-13:12⏩

A viewer, David D., expresses concern about the recent sale of 500 US Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Morocco at a low price, questioning whether this was done to avoid sending them to Ukraine. Jonathan speculates that this could be part of a deal where Morocco, in turn, supplied Ukraine with T-72 tanks that had been modernised by the Czech company Excalibur Army. He suggests that such arrangements might be a way for the US to indirectly provide military assistance to Ukraine given the political climate and potential budgetary constraints. Jonathan acknowledges that this is speculation but highlights the possibility of behind-the-scenes efforts by the US Department of Defence to circumvent roadblocks and expedite aid to Ukraine given the current impasse in the US Senate regarding aid packages.

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Italy Extends Military Aid to Ukraine Until the End of 2024

🎦 13:12-14:22⏩

Jonathan welcomes Italy's decision to extend military aid to Ukraine until the end of 2024. While acknowledging that Italy's contributions have been modest compared to other major economies, he views this commitment as a positive step towards longer-term support. He contrasts this with the more ad hoc approach of providing aid in specific quantities, emphasizing the importance of sustained and predictable assistance for Ukraine.

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France to Join Training of Ukrainian Pilots

🎦 14:22-15:15⏩

France has announced its participation in the training of Ukrainian pilots on fighter jets. Jonathan notes that while France itself does not operate F-16s (they primarily use Mirage and Rafale jets), their involvement will focus on providing initial flight training and preparation. This foundational training will then be followed by more specialized instruction on specific aircraft, likely conducted by other European partners. He points out that the UK is taking a similar approach, as they also do not operate F-16s.

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Ukraine Considers Mobilizing Up to 500,000 Soldiers

🎦 15:15-16:11⏩

Ukraine is considering mobilizing an additional 450,000 to 500,000 soldiers. Jonathan emphasizes the importance of "boots on the ground" for Ukraine. He notes that President Zelensky is currently evaluating this proposal with military leaders, aiming to address issues related to troop rotation and demobilization. This mobilization is part of a larger plan to create a one-million-strong Ukrainian army. He also mentions his recent interview with "GermanAidToUkraine" who provides valuable insights into German military aid through his Twitter, spreadsheet, and blog. Jonathan highly recommends his work.

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Germany's 2024 Budget and Impact on Ukraine Aid

🎦 16:11-18:50⏩

Jonathan provides a detailed analysis of two measures within Germany's 2024 budget that impact aid to Ukraine:

• Re-procurement of Material: Germany plans to save €520 million by requiring the Bundeswehr (German armed forces) to cover the costs of replacing equipment sent to Ukraine from its own stockpiles. Jonathan sees this as potentially discouraging the Bundeswehr from providing aid in the future, especially during emergencies when swift delivery is crucial. He highlights the double burden this places on the Bundeswehr, both in terms of depleted equipment and the financial strain of replenishing it, further stressing an already underfunded military.
• Suspension of the Debt Break: Germany is considering suspending its constitutionally mandated "debt break" to provide additional aid to Ukraine, should other countries, particularly the US, reduce their support. This measure, while controversial, underscores Germany's growing willingness to shoulder a larger financial burden in supporting Ukraine. Jonathan points out that this demonstrates a shift in Germany's stance, indicating a readiness to take on more responsibility in the face of potential US retrenchment.

Jonathan acknowledges the complexities surrounding Germany's aid, emphasizing that while there are valid criticisms of past underfunding of the Bundeswehr, the suspension of the debt break represents a significant commitment to Ukraine's long-term security.

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NATO Funding and Defence Spending

🎦 18:50-23:25⏩

Jonathan discusses NATO funding, specifically the target for member countries to spend 2% of their GDP on defence. He notes that the number of countries likely to meet this goal in 2023 has increased to 11, with Poland now surpassing the US in real terms. However, he cautions against simplistic comparisons, emphasizing the nuances of defence spending. Jonathan argues that the US, with its military-industrial complex and global security commitments, is accustomed to high defence expenditure, which is deeply embedded in its economic and political DNA. Conversely, many European nations, having benefited from a "peace dividend," have historically prioritized other areas over defence spending during peacetime. The war in Ukraine has prompted a reassessment, but Jonathan emphasizes that measuring support for Ukraine solely through direct military spending is misleading. He points out that European countries are contributing significantly in other areas, such as humanitarian aid and refugee resettlement, which are not reflected in their defence budgets. While acknowledging valid concerns about European underfunding of defence, Jonathan urges a nuanced perspective that considers the broader context of support for Ukraine.

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US Sanctions on Iranian Drone Production

🎦 23:25-24:04⏩

The US has imposed sanctions on individuals and entities in Iran and other countries involved in the production of Iranian military drones. Jonathan welcomes this move, albeit questioning why it was not implemented sooner. He notes the significance of targeting the supply chain and production networks that enable Iranian drone warfare.

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US Components Found in Captured Russian Weapons

🎦 24:04-25:03⏩

Jonathan raises concerns regarding the discovery of US-made components in captured Russian weapons. Data from Ukraine's National Agency on Corruption Protection indicates that nearly 75% of the 2,500 foreign parts analyzed originated from US manufacturers. While acknowledging the alarming nature of this finding, Jonathan cautions against assigning blame solely to specific countries like the US. He suggests that the focus should be on closing loopholes and strengthening export controls to prevent the inadvertent or deliberate funneling of dual-use components to Russia through complex supply chains. Addressing this issue requires robust international cooperation and a concerted effort to enhance transparency and accountability in global arms trade.

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Russia Mobilizes New Citizens in St. Petersburg

🎦 25:03-25:47⏩

In St Petersburg, eleven men were issued draft notices at their Russian citizenship ceremony. Jonathan finds this both ironic and indicative of Russia's pressing need for manpower. He highlights the grim reality that these new citizens, having just achieved their goal of Russian citizenship, are now being sent to the front lines where they face a high risk of death or injury. The incident underscores the moral bankruptcy of the Russian regime and its disregard for human life.

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Potential Seizure of Frozen Russian Assets by Western Countries

🎦 25:47-27:42⏩

Jonathan discusses the potential for Western countries to seize frozen Russian assets. He cites a Financial Times report indicating that discussions are underway to legally justify this move by designating these countries as "victims" of Russia's aggression in Ukraine. This designation would pave the way for transferring these assets, potentially amounting to billions of dollars, to Ukraine for reconstruction efforts. He notes that while this seems like a logical step, legal hurdles remain. Jonathan also acknowledges concerns regarding the potential impact on global financial stability, as other countries holding reserves in US dollars or Euros might become wary of similar actions. Despite these challenges, he believes that utilizing Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine is a just and necessary step.

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Germany Seeks to Confiscate €720 Million in Russian Assets

🎦 27:42-28:26⏩

Germany is taking steps to seize over €720 million in assets from Russian financial institutions for allegedly violating sanctions. Jonathan outlines the German attorney general's case, explaining that these institutions attempted to withdraw funds from a German bank after sanctions were imposed but were unsuccessful. While no individuals are currently facing prosecution, Germany is seeking to confiscate these assets to support Ukraine. Jonathan applauds this move, emphasizing the importance of holding Russia accountable and utilizing its resources to aid Ukraine.

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US Senate Delays Decision on Ukraine Aid Until Next Year

🎦 28:26-29:13⏩

Jonathan reports that negotiations on further US aid to Ukraine in the Senate have stalled and no decision will be reached this year. Chuck Schumer, the Senate Majority Leader, has confirmed that discussions will resume when the Senate reconvenes in the new year. This delay means that any new aid package will likely not be finalized until well into January 2024. Jonathan notes that while this was expected, it is still disappointing given the urgent need for continued support for Ukraine.

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Zelensky's Press Conference

🎦 29:13-30:57⏩

Jonathan summarizes key points from President Zelensky's recent press conference:

• Winter Challenges and Resilience: Zelensky acknowledged the difficulties of winter but emphasized Ukraine's growing strength and resilience.
• New Patriot Systems: He confirmed the arrival of new Patriot missile systems but did not disclose the exact number.
• Mobilization Plans: Zelensky mentioned the proposed mobilization of 450,000 to 500,000 soldiers, highlighting the associated cost of 500 billion hryvnia and the need for a comprehensive plan to be reviewed by the Ukrainian parliament.
• Determination to Resist: He rejected any suggestion of Ukraine conceding defeat, emphasizing their determination to fight for their territory.
• Confidence in US Support: Zelensky expressed confidence in the US's commitment to supporting Ukraine.
• International Aid: He outlined confirmed aid commitments from various countries, including Belgium (€1.7 billion), Denmark (€4.2 billion), South Korea (€2.3 billion), Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway (€7.5 billion), France (€2 billion), Germany (€8 billion), Sweden (€0.5 billion), and Japan (€2 billion). He also anticipates €50 billion from the EU and $61 billion from the US.
• Strained Relations with Hungary: Zelensky criticized Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's stance on Ukraine, alleging a lack of support and unwillingness to engage in dialogue.
• Unwavering War Strategy: He reiterated Ukraine's commitment to reclaiming all its territories within the 1991 borders, although tactical adjustments might be made based on battlefield assessments.
• NATO Membership Aspiration: Zelensky firmly rejected any notion of partial NATO membership that would exclude Russian-occupied territories, emphasizing the need for a unified Ukraine within NATO.
• Potential Impact of US Elections: He expressed concern that the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election could significantly impact the war, particularly given former President Trump's stated intention to reduce support for Ukraine.

Jonathan notes the significance of Zelensky's remarks, highlighting the ongoing challenges, Ukraine's determination to resist Russian aggression, and the importance of continued international support.

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Russia Warns of Response to US-Finland Defence Pact

🎦 36:28-37:05⏩

Russia has issued a veiled threat in response to the recent US-Finland defence cooperation agreement. Maria Zakharova, a spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, characterized the agreement as a threat to Russia's security. Jonathan notes the escalation in rhetoric, indicating Russia's sensitivity to Finland's growing ties with NATO. He interprets this as a sign of Russia's strategic failure, as their actions have pushed Finland closer to the alliance they sought to counter.

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Putin's Claims About the Russian Army's Experience

🎦 37:05-37:49⏩

Jonathan shares a quote from Putin claiming that no army in the world has as much real-world combat experience as the Russian army. He then highlights a viewer's comment pointing out the irony of Putin's statement, given that Russia's extensive military experience stems from its repeated invasions and annexations of neighboring countries, such as Georgia, Chechnya, and Ukraine. Jonathan uses this to underscore the hypocrisy of Russia's justifications for the war and its claims of seeking peace while engaging in aggressive expansionism.

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New International Mission to Counter Attacks in the Red Sea

🎦 37:49-39:43⏩

Jonathan discusses the newly announced international mission to counter attacks in the Red Sea. Led by the US, the mission includes the UK, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, and Spain. Jonathan, echoing former US Army Europe Commanding General Ben Hodges's view, questions Germany's absence. He goes on to explore the wider geopolitical context of this mission. He highlights the connection to Russia's war in Ukraine, arguing that Iran, as Russia's ally, is deliberately stoking tensions in the region to divert international attention and resources away from supporting Ukraine. He argues that Russia benefits from Iran's actions, which serve as a distraction and a test of Western resolve. Jonathan suggests that the outcome of the war in Ukraine will have ripple effects, particularly on Iran's regional influence and China's strategic calculations. He emphasizes the importance of the US and its allies demonstrating the will and capacity to address these multifaceted challenges effectively, as failure to do so could embolden actors like Russia and China.

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French Company Decathlon Accused of Bypassing Russia Sanctions

🎦 40:06-40:45⏩

Jonathan criticizes French sporting goods retailer Decathlon for allegedly using a shell company to continue selling products in Russia after publicly announcing the suspension of its operations there. He highlights the hypocrisy of companies that pledge to cease operations in Russia while quietly continuing to profit from the Russian market. Jonathan contrasts this with Carlsberg, the Danish brewing company, which had assets seized by the Russian government after pulling out of the country and has since become more openly critical of Russia.

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Carlsberg Donates Non-Alcoholic Beer to Ukraine

🎦 40:45-41:12⏩

In a lighter moment, Jonathan commends Carlsberg for donating 24,000 cans of non-alcoholic beer to Ukraine. He acknowledges the ban on alcohol for soldiers on the front lines and praises the gesture as a thoughtful and practical way to support Ukrainian troops.

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Ukraine's Economy Suffers Due to Border Restrictions

🎦 41:12-41:40⏩

Jonathan shifts attention to the economic impact of the war, reporting that Ukraine's economy has lost an estimated €1 billion (potentially reaching €1.5 billion) due to disruptions in trade caused by restrictions on freight transport across its western borders in November and December. He highlights the ongoing challenges faced by Ukraine's economy and the need for continued international support to mitigate these losses.

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Russia Escalates Bellicose Rhetoric Towards Finland

🎦 41:40-43:22⏩

Jonathan revisits Russia's increasingly aggressive rhetoric towards Finland, citing a Russian state media commentator who warned that the re-establishment of the Leningrad Military District should "cause a spasm in the stomach" of every Finn. Jonathan dismisses this as bluster, pointing out that Russia has already depleted its military presence in the region to support the war in Ukraine and is unlikely to have the resources for a credible threat against Finland. He emphasizes that Russia's actions have backfired, pushing Finland closer to NATO and strengthening its security posture.

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EU Strengthens Migration Policy

🎦 43:22-46:02⏩

Jonathan addresses the issue of migration, acknowledging its complex and sensitive nature. He notes that Russia often exploits the issue to sow discord within Western societies, particularly in the US and Europe. He emphasizes the need for a strong and coherent migration policy, not only from a humanitarian perspective but also from a strategic standpoint, as it relates to countering Russian disinformation and maintaining social cohesion. Jonathan welcomes the EU's recent agreement on strengthening its migration policy, recognizing the challenges posed by ongoing conflicts, climate change, and economic disparities. He emphasizes that a secure and stable Europe, capable of managing migration effectively, is crucial for international security and for resisting Russian attempts to exploit divisions within the West.

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Wrap up

🎦 46:02-46:11⏩

Jonathan concludes the update, thanking viewers for their support and acknowledging the lengthy nature of the video due to the volume of news. He signs off, encouraging viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video.

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