Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
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"It's not that those probing operations are not going to take place so whatever I say in the rest of this video which has already been recorded I'm not going to edit it much but take that with a pinch of salt it's a misinterpretation of the ISW that I then took on board."
Hello Team!
Jonathan clarifies that the ISW report about a potential Ukrainian operational pause was a misinterpretation. The main counteroffensive thrust with Western equipment likely won't happen in the next week, but probing operations will continue.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Oryx Blog Ending
The Oryx Blog, which visually confirms equipment losses on both sides, will stop after October 1st. The founder is stepping away for personal reasons. Jonathan wonders if intelligence organizations will take over the useful project.
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Potential Ukrainian Operational Pause
The ISW suggests Ukraine may be pausing counteroffensive operations to re-evaluate tactics, but has not committed the majority of its forces yet. Jonathan notes:
- Russians will claim this means the counteroffensive has failed
- An operational pause is normal to adapt to battlefield challenges
- It could be a psyop to lull Russians into false sense of security
- Fighting still seems to be occurring in key areas
Northeast Frontline - Kupyansk to Kreminna
Not much new activity reported besides:
- Some repelled attacks near Kuzmivka, Novoselivska, and Berestova
- Skirmishes and positional battles in the Kreminna forest area
Bakhmut Area
- Geolocated footage shows limited Ukrainian advances near Beresta and Rostylivka
- Russians are seen in positions matching the pro-Russian Rybar Maps depiction
- Fighting continues north and south of Bakhmut but with slightly decreased intensity
- Ukrainians made ~1km gains near Klishchiivka
Avdiivka-Donetsk City Area
- Ukrainians advanced and captured a height near the hamlet of Vesele north of Avdiivka
- Increased fighting reported near Kamianka over the past week
- Russians claim to be attacking towards Vodyane and Pervomaiske
Southern Frontline - Zaporizhzhia & Donetsk Oblasts
- Ukrainians advancing near Velyka Novosilka, Rivnopil abandoned
- Trying to move east from Lobkove towards Pyatykhatky
- Slow going through minefields, but have liberated 8 settlements and 113 sq km in 2 weeks
- Debate over semantics of "breaching first line of defense"
- Heavy battles south of Velyka Novosilka with important height captured
- Ukrainians took Pyatykhatky, possibly killing 300 Russian troops
- Pushing towards Zorya and Robotyne in the west
Wrap Up
The supposed Ukrainian operational pause doesn't seem evident based on the past 24 hours of updates. Jonathan will discuss the frontlines in more detail with Andrew Perpetua on a livestream later today.
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