Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"If they would, they could. They aren't, so they can't."
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Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:33⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a slightly shorter Ukraine War News Update due to time constraints. He mentions an upcoming engagement and a potential delay in the second part of the update.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report - Russian Losses
🎦 00:33-01:25⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses, noting the usual caveats. He highlights:
- Personnel: 760 (consistent with previous days but higher than earlier in the war)
- Tanks: 10
- APVs: 11
- Artillery systems: 7
- MLRS: 1
- Anti-aircraft system: 1
- Vehicles & fuel tanks: 14
- Special equipment: 3
He emphasizes that even seemingly small losses contribute to the overall effort.
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Andrew Perpetua's Loss Statistics
🎦 01:25-03:08⏩
Jonathan discusses Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed loss statistics, noting significant Ukrainian losses, particularly around the Dnipro River. He highlights footage showing destroyed boats and civilian vehicles, speculating they might have been involved in supplying troops across the river.
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Front Line Situation and Greg's Assessment
🎦 03:08-05:11⏩
- Jonathan acknowledges the previous day's live stream with Greg and expresses gratitude for the generous donations received for the charity.
- He notes Greg's pessimistic outlook on the current front-line situation, with Russian advancements in the northeast and around Bilohirka.
- He reviews Perpetua's data showing Ukrainian losses of APCs, SUVs, and cars, impacting logistics. Damaged equipment includes a T-72 tank and an M109 howitzer.
- On the Russian side, he points out the destruction of three tanks (T-80, T-72), numerous BMP infantry fighting vehicles, and civilian trucks, indicating intense fighting.
Significant Ukrainian Equipment Losses
🎦 05:11-06:20⏩
Despite inflicting losses on the Russians, Jonathan emphasizes the substantial equipment losses suffered by the Ukrainians over the past two days. Key losses include:
- Two air defense systems damaged (a Tor M2, adding to yesterday's Tor loss)
- Electronic warfare systems (Artichoke-P and Silok)
- Communication and surveillance equipment
- Two radars (FAR-P and Isonok)
- Recovery vehicles (ARV and BREM-1)
- A BM-21 Grad MLRS
Jonathan believes these losses will be felt more keenly by the Russians despite their numerical parity in overall equipment losses.
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Russian Use of Incendiary Ammunition in Krynky
🎦 06:20-07:18⏩
Jonathan expresses surprise at the recent footage emerging of Russian incendiary ammunition being used against Ukrainian troops in Krynky. He questions why this tactic, frequently employed in Bakhmut and Avdiivka, has been seemingly absent until now. He ponders whether this indicates a potential shortage of such munitions on the Russian side. While acknowledging the horrifying nature of these weapons, he highlights their effectiveness in flushing out entrenched defenders and questions why Russia hasn't utilized them more extensively in Krynky.
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Update on the Damaged IL-22
🎦 07:18-08:28⏩
Jonathan revisits the incident involving the damaged Russian IL-22 aircraft, where initial images from Russian sources only depicted tail damage. He recalls questioning the extent of the damage and speculating about potential damage to the front of the aircraft. Despite assurances from some viewers that emergency services are standard procedure, Jonathan remains unconvinced, highlighting the presence of fire and reported injuries. He reveals that the pilot, Major Viktor Klimov, died from shrapnel wounds sustained while still airborne, with the co-pilot also injured while landing the plane. This information, Jonathan suggests, points to more significant damage than initially portrayed.
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Drone Jammer Destroyed by Drones - The Irony
🎦 08:28-09:27⏩
Jonathan shares footage of a Russian drone jammer being destroyed by Ukrainian drones dropping grenades, highlighting the irony of the situation. He emphasizes the significance of such equipment for both sides and underscores the success of the Ukrainians in neutralizing this particular jammer.
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Trent Telenko's Analysis - Depleted Air Defences
🎦 09:27-12:35⏩
- Jonathan discusses Trent Telenko's analysis, supporting his long-held view that destroying Russian air defenses in occupied territories like Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk creates vulnerabilities elsewhere.
- He uses the analogy of a blanket that's too small for a bed, highlighting the trade-off Russia faces when redeploying air defense systems to protect these areas.
- He cites Pantelanko's claim that Moscow and St. Petersburg have experienced a depletion of air defense assets due to redeployments to the front lines.
- He mentions Yuri Ikhnat's confirmation that Russia has concentrated air defenses in Crimea and on the front line, leaving other regions more vulnerable.
- He notes reports of Ukrainian drone strikes in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and oil depots, interpreting this as a sign of Russia's weakened air defenses.
Lack of Russian Strikes on Ukraine: A Sign of Depleted Stockpiles?
🎦 12:35-13:32⏩
Jonathan observes a lack of reported Russian strikes on Ukraine, prompting speculation that Russia might lack the necessary drone and missile stockpiles for sustained attacks. He reiterates his belief that if Russia had the resources, they would be actively striking Ukrainian targets. The absence of such attacks suggests an inability to do so.
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Ukrainian Drone Strikes Inside Russia
🎦 13:32-14:59⏩
- Jonathan reports on Ukrainian drone attacks in the Russian cities of Orel, Smolensk, and Tula, highlighting footage of explosions in Tula.
- He points out the irony of a drone potentially destroying a Pantsir system factory, given its role as an anti-drone air defense system.
- He cites reports indicating that Tula was struck at least seven times, suggesting a successful attack.
- He emphasizes the increasing capability and capacity of Ukraine's indigenous munitions industry, as evidenced by their ability to conduct these strikes.
Novotek Port Plant Attack in Leningrad Region
🎦 14:59-18:04⏩
Jonathan details a significant drone attack on the Novotek port plant in Russia's Leningrad region, more than 850 kilometers from the front line.
- He describes it as Russia's second-largest gas terminal and emphasizes the strategic significance of the attack.
- He mentions reports of explosions preceding the fire and cites sources suggesting Ukrainian drones were responsible.
- He notes the lack of reported casualties, with staff evacuated and a high-alert regime introduced.
- He shares commentary speculating that Ukraine might be flexing its muscles following a perceived decrease in American aid packages, defying potential restrictions on striking major export infrastructure.
Tim White's Analysis of the Novotek Attack
🎦 18:04-18:59⏩
Jonathan presents Tim White's analysis of the Novotek attack, highlighting several key points:
- The lack of official acknowledgment from Russian authorities regarding drones operating in the region, despite reports of explosions preceding the fire.
- The absence of air raid sirens and anti-aircraft fire, suggesting a vulnerability in St. Petersburg's defenses for the second time this week.
- This aligns with earlier reports of Russia relocating air defense systems from St. Petersburg to bolster defenses elsewhere, leaving the city more susceptible to attacks.
Blackouts in Moscow
🎦 19:00-20:02⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of electricity blackouts in central Moscow, linking them to earlier announcements of rolling blackouts due to infrastructure limitations. He finds it noteworthy that the Russian state initially dismissed these announcements as fake news.
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Gazprom Plane Crash in Afghanistan
🎦 20:02-21:11⏩
Jonathan reports on the crash of a Gazprom plane, a Falcon 10B passenger jet en route from India to Moscow, in Afghanistan. He notes the pilot's reported technical difficulties before the crash. While acknowledging the possibility of a tragic accident, he speculates that the passengers, potentially Gazprom executives, might have been involved in discussions related to India's reduced oil imports from Russia.
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Wrap up
🎦 21:11-21:20⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, bids them farewell, and signs off.
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