Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"There needs to be a consistent pressure on companies even now, 430-440 days after the war started, needs to be pressure on these companies to get out of Russia, to put that economic pressure on Russia themselves to stop this war."
Hello Team!
Jonathan shares a story about meeting a former tank commander at the pub who served in Bosnia. The commander noted the similarities between the Bosnian conflict and the war in Ukraine, particularly the discovery of torture chambers and mass graves. Jonathan reflects on how sad it is that history seems to be repeating itself.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
The Ukrainian figures for Russian losses on May 1st were 460 personnel, 1 tank, 1 APC, 9 artillery systems, 3 anti-aircraft warfare systems, 1 drone, 15 cruise missiles, 6 vehicles/fuel tanks, and 1 piece of special equipment. Jonathan notes these numbers are indicative of the transitional phase between the Russian offensive and the anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive.
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John Kirby's Comments
There was confusion around comments made by John Kirby about Russian casualties. Initial reports suggested he claimed Russia suffered 20,000 killed in action in Bakhmut since December. However, it was later clarified that the 20,000 figure referred to Russian losses across all fronts, with half being Wagner soldiers, mostly convicts, in Bakhmut. Jonathan emphasizes that even with the clarification, 100,000 Russian casualties in five months is significant.
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Hits and Losses
- A single boom, similar to a military explosion, was reported in Melitopol, but no further information is available.
- The Russians conducted their usual attacks, including S300 missile strikes on Kramatorsk and shelling of various towns like Avdiivka, Kurokove, Chasiv Yar, and Siversk.
- TASS, the Russian news agency, claimed Russian forces eliminated Ukrainian artillery and mortar systems, and reported increased destruction of Ukrainian equipment and personnel compared to the previous week. Jonathan questions the trustworthiness of these claims, citing an example of the Russian MOD lying about the location of a logistics video.
Military Aid
- Ukraine has fully formed 8 offensive guard brigades, with more in progress, to handle liberated areas during the counteroffensive.
- Germany's Chancellor Scholz stated that Ukraine could receive additional ammunition for Gepard anti-aircraft tanks in August. He also said Ukraine should not fire on Russian territory with German-supplied weapons, slightly walking back earlier comments from the German Defence Minister.
- British AS90 self-propelled howitzers were spotted in use with the 117th brigade of the Ukrainian army.
- A new batch of Ukrainian first-person-view drones has arrived, potentially giving Ukraine a 3-6 month advantage over Russia in this area.
- Volunteers have purchased a total of 155 armoured vehicles in the UK for Ukraine, including Spartans, Sultans, Samaritans, Bulldogs, and Stormers.
Sanctions and Economic Pressure
- Sanctions on the Russian aviation industry are leading to increasing malfunctions and emergency landings due to lack of maintenance and spare parts. Safety is deteriorating as the supply chain is choked off.
- Drinks giant Pernod Ricard made a U-turn on resuming exports to Russia following international backlash. Jonathan emphasizes the need for continued pressure on companies to leave Russia, even 430-440 days into the war.
- Russian President Putin ordered his government to clarify procedures for dividend payments from companies in "unfriendly countries". He wants proposals that require these companies to expand production, develop new technologies, and invest in the Russian economy.
UN Resolution
The UN passed a resolution on cooperation between the UN and the Council of Europe, which included language recognizing the challenges Europe faces following Russia's aggression against Ukraine. The resolution calls for restoring peace and security, ensuring human rights, and bringing those responsible for violations to justice. The vote was 122 in favour, with China and Brazil voting for the resolution, which Russian propagandist Egor Kots called a massive political loss for Russia.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and apologizes for his brain not working too well due to having a couple too many beers the night before. He jokes that he should just stay home every night always and forever. He signs off by saying "take care" and "speak to you soon".
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