Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"It doesn't matter whether he's [Biden] got a greater chance [of winning] or not. It's irrelevant. He basically can't run..."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:47⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video. He mentions an unrelated video on his A Tippling Philosopher channel on the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and mentions he's just finished painting.
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UK: Zelensky's visit to the UK: Blenheim Palace meeting
🎦 00:47-03:38⏩
Jonathan discusses Zelensky's recent visit to the UK and the meeting at Blenheim Palace with European Leaders. He plays a clip from Keir Starmer’s speech at the event, highlighting how Starmer humanly touched Zelensky and how this gesture of empathy probably meant a lot to Zelensky. Starmer vowed to stand with Ukraine for "as long as it takes". Jonathan believes this close relationship with Zelensky bodes well for Ukraine, given Starmer's recent election victory.
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UK: Zelensky's visit to the UK: Meeting with Starmer and UK Cabinet
🎦 03:38-06:42⏩
Jonathan talks about Zelensky's visit to 10 Downing Street, where he met with the UK Cabinet. He plays a short clip from Zelensky's speech and highlights the significance of a foreign leader addressing the UK cabinet in person, something that hasn't happened since 1997. He talks about Starmer’s commitment to Ukraine and how Labour will likely want to differentiate themselves from the previous Conservative government by going even harder in their support for Ukraine.
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UK: Keir Starmer's pledge to "double down" on support for Ukraine
🎦 06:42-11:29⏩
Jonathan discusses Kier Starmer's pledge to "double down" on backing for Ukraine, highlighting how several news outlets have misinterpreted this as a pledge to double military aid. He stresses that “doubling down” is English idiom to convey a strengthening of resolve and commitment and does not mean that military aid will be doubled. Jonathan plays a clip from a news report which claimed that Starmer had pledged to double aid to Ukraine, pointing out that the report is incorrect.
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UK: Zelensky's requests for long-range missiles
🎦 11:29-15:45⏩
Jonathan discusses Zelensky's requests to Starmer for the UK to help Ukraine with its “long-range capability", pointing out that Zelensky is publicly putting Starmer “on the spot” by making this request. He analyses the situation with Storm Shadow missiles, highlighting how the UK’s stance on providing these is ambiguous and open to interpretation. While the UK appears willing to provide Ukraine with these missiles, it won't assist in using them against targets in Russia. Jonathan discusses John Healey's statement that the UK will provide military aid to Ukraine for “the rest of the decade”. He believes that Healey's justification for this is astute: spending money in Ukraine is the best way to defend the UK and Europe.
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UK: Zelensky's meeting with King Charles
🎦 15:45-16:33⏩
Jonathan talks about Zelensky meeting with King Charles III, who is a vocal supporter of Ukraine. He points out that the UK is in a fortunate position in that there is strong, bipartisan and public support for Ukraine, with even the monarchy expressing its support.
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UK: New UK Defence strategy and the importance of hybrid warfare
🎦 16:33-19:47⏩
Jonathan talks about the new UK defence report, highlighting that this is timely, given the ongoing war in Ukraine. He goes on to talk about the importance of hybrid warfare, stressing that, as Starmer pointed out earlier, the war in Ukraine has spilled over into other countries. He cites several examples, including fires, assassination attempts and cyberattacks on hospitals. He then plays a clip from an Air Chief Marshall's speech about the need for the UK armed forces to be prepared for hybrid warfare, highlighting the need for a "joined-up approach" across all domains, including space, cyber, land, sea and air. Jonathan believes that the UK also needs to work more closely with Europe on cyber warfare and disinformation, stressing that borders are meaningless in cyberspace.
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US/Ukraine: Zelensky's comments on Trump's suggestion that he could end the war in 24 hours
🎦 19:47-20:32⏩
Jonathan discusses Trump’s claim that he could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and Zelensky’s comments about this. He explains that Trump's plan would likely involve forcing Ukraine to negotiate and cede territory, something that Zelensky has made clear is not acceptable. Jonathan acknowledges that this raises questions about who has the right to decide such matters: the country providing the weapons or the country being invaded?
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EU/Hungary/Serbia: Zelensky meets Spanish PM, Hungary’s controversial EU presidency and Serbia's relationship with Russia
🎦 20:32-22:48⏩
Jonathan talks about Zelensky’s meeting with the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, at Blenheim Palace, where they discussed Spain’s military support for Ukraine. He then moves on to talk about how several EU countries are refusing to send ministers to meetings organised by Hungary during its EU presidency. He explains that this is a significant move by the EU and highlights how precarious the situation is in the Balkans. He then talks about Serbia, where there have been meetings on cooperation and security with Russia, stressing that despite Serbia’s claims, it is firmly under the influence of Russia. Jonathan finishes this section by reporting on the breaking news that Evan Gershkovich, the Wall Street Journal reporter imprisoned in Russia, has just been sentenced to 16 years in prison.
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US: Biden to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race?
🎦 22:48-27:30⏩
Jonathan talks about the speculation that Joe Biden will soon announce his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race. He cites a report from Axios, claiming that key figures in the Democratic Party no longer believe Biden can win, citing his age, his inability to change public perception of him and his failure to secure a majority in Congress as reasons for this. Jonathan believes that there are two main reasons why Biden’s campaign is no longer viable. Firstly, key donors are withholding funding from Biden’s campaign and instead diverting funds to down-ticket races in swing states, fearing that the Democrats are going to lose control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Secondly, several high-profile Democrats have now publicly stated that Biden should be replaced, making it very difficult for Biden to campaign in important swing states.
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US: The Democrats' "enthusiasm gap"
🎦 27:30-27:39⏩
Jonathan plays a clip from an unnamed analyst outlining how the Democrats are experiencing an “enthusiasm gap” and are struggling to find volunteers in key swing states.
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US: Analysis of Biden's likely withdrawal
🎦 27:39-29:00⏩
Jonathan summarises his analysis, concluding that Biden’s position is untenable and that he is now beyond the point of no return. He believes that if Biden is replaced soon, the Democrats might stand a chance, but if he stays, it will be “suicide”, given that he no longer has the money or the support of his party. Jonathan reports that stories about Biden’s imminent withdrawal are now circulating and that a third senator has called for Biden to step down.
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US: Kamala Harris - a viable replacement for Biden?
🎦 29:00-29:32⏩
Jonathan talks about Kamala Harris’s recent speeches, claiming that she is a much more compelling speaker than many people give her credit for. He watched her recent campaign speech in North Carolina and was impressed by her performance.
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US: The Republican National Congress (RNC)
🎦 29:32-31:18⏩
Jonathan talks about the recent Republican National Congress (RNC), which should have been an easy win for the Republicans but turned out to be something of a “damp squib”. He believes that the Republicans made a mistake by picking Mike Pence as Trump’s running mate. Given Trump's divisive nature, Jonathan believes that a more strategic choice would have been someone like Marco Rubio, who could appeal to a broader base. He believes that the Republicans picked Pence because they are overconfident and think they will win. He concludes this section by pointing out that, despite the Republican’s confidence, the polls are actually very close.
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US: Analysis of Trump's speech at the RNC
🎦 31:18-36:58⏩
Jonathan discusses Trump’s speech at the RNC, claiming that it was long, boring and incoherent. He then plays a clip from the Pod Save America podcast, in which the presenters analyse Trump's speech, pointing out that Trump squandered a huge opportunity to present a clear message to the American people. The Pod Save America presenters are all former speechwriters for Obama and were shocked at how poorly written Trump’s speech was.
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US: Trump, Putin and the optics of a photograph
🎦 36:58-37:06⏩
Jonathan talks about the image of Trump with Vladimir Putin, shown on the big screen at the RNC. He believes that this is a deliberate attempt to portray Trump as “presidential” and a skilled diplomat, although he finds it cringeworthy. He believes that such tactics will appeal to Trump’s base but questions their wisdom.
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US: Trump's claim that "God saved his life"
🎦 37:06-37:27⏩
Jonathan talks about Trump’s claims that “God saved his life” and his habit of kissing the helmet of a firefighter who died after being injured while saving Trump’s life. Jonathan finds this behaviour crass and offensive.
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US: Summary of US Presidential election analysis
🎦 37:27-39:01⏩
Jonathan summarises the situation with the US presidential election, stating that the outcome of the election will have a huge impact on the future of Ukraine. He believes that there are two likely scenarios. In the first scenario, Biden will be replaced by another Democrat candidate, possibly Kamala Harris, and the Democrats will be re-energised and stand a chance of defeating Trump. In the second scenario, Trump will win and Ukraine will need to rely on the support of Europe and the UK, rather than the US. Jonathan believes that even if Trump does win, there is still a pathway to victory for Ukraine, but it will be a lot more challenging.
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US/China: Trump's comments about Taiwan
🎦 39:01-42:26⏩
Jonathan discusses Trump’s comments about Taiwan, in which he appeared to suggest that he was not overly concerned about Taiwan’s security. Jonathan then plays a clip from State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller, in which he refutes Trump’s claims that Taiwan is overly reliant on the US. Miller points out that Taiwan has been paying for its own defence for several years and spends billions of dollars on US military equipment, boosting the US economy and American jobs. Jonathan points out that Miller's argument is very similar to the one used to justify providing aid to Ukraine.
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Wrap up
🎦 42:26-42:54⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by saying that he focused on the UK in this video because of all the meetings taking place there. He stresses that the US presidential election is still important, as it will have a significant impact on the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
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