Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitics News
Table of Contents 📖
"Putin didn't understand when he attacked Ukraine that he wouldn't break a country he would make one. The people refused to kneel and stood up and around the world in countries as far away as Australia individuals rallied behind their courage."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:08⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, specifically a Ukraine War News Update, the third part for June 12th, 2024.
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Georgia Potentially Reopening Embassy in Moscow
🎦 00:08-01:21⏩
Jonathan discusses the potential reopening of the Georgian embassy in Moscow, highlighting that Georgia broke off diplomatic relations and closed its embassy in 2008 following the Russian invasion. He expresses concern over the pro-Russian stance of the ruling Georgian Dream party, drawing parallels to Stockholm Syndrome.
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French Snap Election and the Rise of the Far-Right
🎦 01:21-12:09⏩
Jonathan analyses the implications of the snap election called by French President Emmanuel Macron. He points out the rise of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) and its young leader, Jordan Bardella. He highlights Bardella's concerning online activity, suggesting possible links to fascist groups. Jonathan criticizes the centre-right party, Les Républicains, for their openness to forming a coalition with RN, which he sees as normalizing the far-right in French politics. He provides an overview of French electoral processes, Macron's unpopularity stemming from his centrist policies, and the potential consequences for Ukraine if RN gains influence. Jonathan argues that Macron's decision to call a snap election is a high-stakes gamble that could impact his legacy and credibility. He also observes that a coalition involving RN could weaken French support for Ukraine. Jonathan compares and contrasts the French and UK political landscapes, specifically addressing coalition possibilities and electoral strategies. He expresses his personal views on French politics, particularly regarding Macron's handling of pensions and the gilets jaunes protests. He emphasizes Macron's strong stance on Ukraine, drawing comparisons to Boris Johnson's support. Jonathan also discusses the possibility of a hung parliament, potential coalition scenarios, and their likely impact on French politics and Macron's presidency. He touches upon Marine Le Pen's presidential ambitions and the implications of RN potentially gaining a role in government, even suggesting that their potential incompetence could lead to a future repudiation.
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Germany's Uniper Cancels Gas Contract with Russia's Gazprom
🎦 12:09-13:44⏩
- Germany's Uniper, a significant purchaser of Russian gas within the EU, has cancelled its contract with Gazprom.
- This decision follows a legal battle where an arbitration court ruled in Uniper's favour, awarding them €13 billion in compensation for undelivered gas.
- Jonathan views this as a positive step towards ending Europe's, particularly Germany's, reliance on Russian hydrocarbons. He also highlights Gazprom's struggles, including financial losses and potential tax hikes by the Russian government.
Russian Propaganda and Medvedev's Map
🎦 13:44-15:00⏩
- Jonathan mocks a Russian TV segment showing a map of Ukraine entirely under the Russian flag. He criticizes this blatant propaganda, calling it a poor attempt to assert control despite the ongoing conflict and international support for Ukraine.
Putin's Family Circumventing Sanctions
🎦 15:00-16:49⏩
- Jonathan criticizes the ability of those close to Putin to evade sanctions, highlighting the purchase of a luxury yacht, the "Immortal Dreamer," by a company linked to Putin's nephew. He questions the effectiveness of sanctions and points to Turkey as a potential conduit for circumventing them.
- He further alleges that Alina Kabaeva, rumoured to be romantically involved with Putin, has access to Western-made aircraft parts while Russian civil aviation struggles.
Criticism of Western "Anti-Escalation" Stance and Reflexive Control
🎦 16:49-23:32⏩
- Jonathan critiques what he calls the West's "anti-escalation" approach to aiding Ukraine, arguing that it stems from a fear of provoking Russia. He suggests that this approach is counterproductive, emboldening Russia and prolonging the conflict.
- He emphasizes the importance of "reflexive control," a concept where one party (in this case, Russia) manipulates another's actions by instilling fear and setting the terms of engagement. Jonathan praises Macron for attempting to seize control of the narrative by not ruling out any options, including potential troop deployments, but laments that other countries quickly contradicted this stance. He believes that strategic ambiguity is crucial in this situation, keeping Russia guessing about potential responses. Jonathan argues that the West has inadvertently taught Putin that they'll back down when threatened, calling this a learned behaviour. He believes the West should support Ukraine unconditionally, supplying them with any necessary weapons and allowing them to determine their strategy.
- Jonathan acknowledges the possibility that direct US military intervention could escalate the situation. However, he believes that supporting Ukraine's self-defense with any and all available resources minimizes the risks. He contends that by engaging in debates about what aid is acceptable, the West validates Putin's tactics of intimidation.
- Jonathan expresses frustration with the West's approach, suggesting it allows Russia to dictate the terms of the conflict while Ukrainian lives are lost. He questions whether this strategy, while potentially leading to greater long-term degradation of Russia's military capabilities, is morally justifiable.
NATO Coordinating Ukraine Aid Despite Hungary's Refusal
🎦 25:20-26:03⏩
- Jonathan reports that NATO will proceed with a new mission to coordinate aid to Ukraine despite Hungary's refusal to participate. He notes that while Hungary isn't actively hindering the initiative, they are not contributing positively.
- Jonathan is critical of Hungary's stance, stating that their relationship with Russia seems to be their only strong alliance currently.
Debunking the "NATO Expansion" Myth
🎦 26:03-28:42⏩
- Jonathan refutes the notion that NATO expansion provoked the war in Ukraine, presenting polling data showing increased Ukrainian support for NATO membership following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014. He argues that Russian aggression, not NATO's actions, is the root cause of the current situation.
- He points out that the initial Russian invasion in 2014 made no mention of NATO as a justification, emphasizing that this narrative was crafted later to deflect blame.
- Jonathan argues that Putin's desire to erase Ukrainian identity, stemming from his distorted historical views, is the driving force behind the conflict.
Biden and Zelensky Meeting at the G7 Summit
🎦 28:42-29:05⏩
Jonathan reports on the scheduled meeting between US President Biden and Ukrainian President Zelensky at the upcoming G7 summit in Italy. He highlights that new measures concerning frozen Russian assets and their potential use to benefit Ukraine are expected to be announced.
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Upcoming Events and Potential for Unrest in France
🎦 29:05-29:44⏩
- Jonathan observes that the timing of the French election is precarious, occurring just before the Paris Olympics. He expresses concern over the potential for unrest and protests, particularly given the volatile political climate.
US Expanding Sanctions on Russia
🎦 29:44-30:42⏩
Jonathan reports on impending US sanctions targeting Russia, including a significant expansion of the list of Russian companies subject to secondary sanctions for any dealings with them.
- These sanctions are specifically aimed at the Russian defense industry and financial institutions like Sberbank and VTB. Additionally, restrictions on exporting semiconductor chips to Russia for military purposes are expected. He highlights a comment that suggests the war might already be over if initial restrictions on microchip supplies had been effective.
Jonathan's Plans and Upcoming Extra Video
🎦 30:42-31:13⏩
- Jonathan mentions that he will be taking a break to enjoy a pint and discuss politics with a friend. He also announces that a planned segment on American politics will be released as a separate "Extra" video later that day.
Wrap Up: Australian Support for Ukraine
🎦 31:13-35:12⏩
- Jonathan ends the video on an emotional note by sharing a clip from 9News Australia, showcasing the story of an Australian fighting in Ukraine who longs to reunite with his children. Jonathan encourages viewers to watch the full report for a deeper understanding of Australian contributions to the war effort. He emphasizes the global solidarity with Ukraine, highlighting the individual stories of courage and resilience. He praises the Australian people and government for their support and underscores the importance of international unity against unprovoked aggression.
