Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Military Aid News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"It's like bureaucracy. We've got too much bureaucracy and not enough fighters."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:13⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to an extended military aid focused episode of ATP Geopolitics. Today's episode focuses on military aid news for the 7th of June 2024 and is the third part in total.
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France Announces Mirage Jets for Ukraine
🎦 00:13-16:23⏩
France, under the leadership of Emmanuel Macron, is increasing its military support for Ukraine.
- France will be sending Mirage 2000-5 multi-role fighter jets to Ukraine.
- A pilot training program will be included in the aid package.
- The specific number of jets being sent has yet to be disclosed.
- It is still unclear which variant of the Mirage 2000-5 will be sent and what munitions it will be equipped with.
- The announcement was made on the 6th of June, coinciding with the anniversary of D-Day.
- This move has been anticipated since September of the previous year.
- Jonathan discusses an article from Avias Online from September 2023 that reported Ukraine was close to an agreement to receive Mirage 2000D aircraft.
- A delegation from Ukraine's Air Force had travelled to France to finalize the details of the deal.
- Jonathan observes that the decision to send the jets now, rather than in February, suggests a sincere shift in French support. He believes Macron understands the gravity of the situation for the EU.
- Shashank Joshi highlights the logistical challenges of integrating the jets into the Ukrainian Air Force, alongside F-16s.
- There is some debate about the capabilities of the 2000-5 versus the 2000D variant, particularly in terms of ground-attack capabilities.
- Jonathan and Joshi note the differences between the two-seater 2000D, designed for ground attack, and the single-seat 2000-5, primarily an air-to-air fighter with some multirole potential.
- Jonathan posits that the 2000-5 should be able to fire cruise missiles such as the SCALP-EG.
- Jonathan observes that French support for providing equipment is driven by its industrial interests. France would prefer to supply its own equipment over financing US upgrades, as pointed out by John Ridge.
- Ridge contends that while the Mirage 2000-5F could contribute to cruise missile defence, it lacks air-to-ground capabilities. He also criticizes the MICA air-to-air missile.
- Despite Ridge's reservations, Jonathan believes acquiring Mirages is a net positive for Ukraine, emphasizing the symbolic and strategic value of French support.
- He further speculates that Ukrainian pilots may have already commenced training on Mirage jets.
- Jonathan dismisses criticism regarding the capabilities of the Mirage 2000-5s, asserting that they represent a significant improvement over Ukraine's existing fleet and highlight France's commitment to supporting Ukraine.
- He draws parallels between procuring Mirage jets and the potential availability of spare parts and maintenance expertise from France and other countries.
- Jonathan concludes that the focus should be on getting the planes operational quickly to contest Russian air superiority.
- Jonathan highlights that obtaining sufficient pilots for the Mirages is less of a concern compared to training and equipping large ground forces, such as the brigade France has committed to training (4,500 soldiers).
France Increases Military Aid to Ukraine
🎦 16:23-19:26⏩
- In addition to the Mirage jets, Macron also announced that France would send military trainers to Ukraine and authorize attacks on military targets within Russian territory.
- France has provided Ukraine with €420 million worth of military equipment, supplementing the €900 million contributed to the European Peace Facility.
- France has sent a range of equipment, including:
- 63 MK81 bombs
- A classified number of AASM guided bombs (rumoured to be 50 per month for 12 months)
- 64 reconnaissance drones
- 16,500 complete shots of 155 mm artillery ammunition
- Thousands of rounds of 105 mm ammunition for the MX-10 wheeled tank
- Five TRM10,000 trucks, and 34 VAB Armoured Personnel Carriers
- - Jonathan corrects an error in a report from Natalia Pursuev, clarifying that France has committed €20 million, not €20 billion to supplying ammunition to Ukraine.
New US Military Aid Package
🎦 19:26-26:45⏩
- The US has announced a new $225 million Presidential Drawdown Authority package for Ukraine.
- Jonathan explains how the US system works, drawing attention to how older equipment is often sent as part of military aid, allowing the US to upgrade their own systems.
- The aid package will include a variety of ammunition, additional HAWK missiles, 155 mm Howitzers, mortar systems, missiles for Stinger and Javelin systems, AT4s, armored vehicles, and patrol boats.
- Jonathan speculates on the types of armored vehicles included and whether these might be M2 Bradleys.
- He further argues that the US could provide more significant quantities of equipment, such as Bradleys, but acknowledges the logistical challenges associated with training, transporting, and maintaining this equipment.
- Jonathan points out that while sending a large quantity of equipment might seem ideal, smaller, more manageable packages are likely more effective, ensuring Ukrainian forces can effectively utilize the aid received.
- The US needs to find the balance between providing impactful aid and not overwhelming Ukraine with equipment it lacks the capacity to use.
Japan Sends Vehicles
🎦 26:45-27:41⏩
- Japan has delivered 101 vehicles to Ukraine, fulfilling a commitment made in May 2023.
- The vehicles, many of which are similar in size and capability to Humvees, will be transferred to Ukraine from Poland.
- Jonathan welcomes the news and emphasizes the importance of logistical vehicles for the Ukrainian war effort.
- He anticipates the vehicles will be put to use quickly by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Germany Sends Artillery Ammunition and AMPS
🎦 27:41-30:30⏩
- Germany's Bundestag has approved the purchase of €880 million worth of 155 mm artillery ammunition for both the Bundeswehr (German Army) and the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
- A framework contract for the ammunition will allow for additional orders to be placed and has been expanded to encompass millions of shells.
- Denmark, Estonia, and the Netherlands are participating in the framework contract to procure 155 mm artillery shells for Ukraine.
- In addition to the ammunition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are set to receive AMPS (Airborne Missile Protection System) self-protection systems from Hensoldt to enhance the survivability of their helicopters.
- The AMPS is a defensive system that uses a range of countermeasures to protect helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft from incoming missiles. It can deploy flares, chaff, and laser countermeasures.
- Jonathan clarifies a discrepancy between the number of AMPS units sent to Ukraine. Hensoldt claims 16 systems were delivered in June 2023, while the German government only acknowledges five. Despite attempts to clarify, Hensoldt declined to comment.
Germany: Rheinmetall Skyranger Upgrade
🎦 30:30-32:12⏩
- Germany's Rheinmetall will collaborate with MBDA to enhance the capabilities of its Skyranger 30 air defense system.
- The collaboration will focus on integrating a new guided missile designed to counter small drones, addressing the growing threat posed by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
- The enhanced Skyranger 30 will provide protection for ground formations against UAVs with its ability to fire both missiles and operate an autocannon.
Poland to Produce Patriot Launch Canisters
🎦 32:12-33:53⏩
- Poland's Military Aviation Works will begin manufacturing launch canisters for the Patriot PAC-3 MSE air defense system.
- The move aims to alleviate production bottlenecks and address the high demand for Patriot components, including launch canisters and missiles.
- Jonathan highlights the significance of this development for Ukraine's air defense capabilities, as the country requires a substantial number of Patriot systems and components.
- Lockheed Martin has already placed two orders with the Polish company for Patriot canisters.
NATO to Increase Intelligence Sharing With Ukraine
🎦 33:53-37:46⏩
- NATO will increase intelligence sharing with Ukraine, focusing on Russian electronic warfare capabilities, an area where the alliance has been hesitant to share information in the past.
- Jonathan explains the sensitivity surrounding electronic warfare technology, which underpins its importance in modern warfare.
- NATO's decision to share more intelligence with Ukraine suggests a shift towards greater transparency and support for Ukraine's defense efforts.
- Jonathan speculates that while nations are eager to assist Ukraine, they must balance this with their economic and geopolitical goals and technological edge.
Ukraine to Streamline Military
🎦 37:46-38:42⏩
- Ukraine's Army Chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, has announced a restructuring of the military, with a 60% reduction in general staff.
- The move will redeploy personnel from administrative roles to frontline combat units, addressing concerns about bureaucracy.
- Jonathan highlights the ongoing development of Ukraine's drone forces.
Ukraine Conducts Amphibious Assault Exercise
🎦 38:42-40:51⏩
- Ukrainian amphibious assault groups recently conducted exercises in the Black Sea, demonstrating their growing capabilities and confidence.
- Jonathan questions what these exercises might indicate about Ukraine's strategic objectives. Could they be a precursor to an amphibious assault on Crimea, or are they a precautionary measure?
- He ponders whether Ukraine's path to victory will be through a decisive military breakthrough or a political and economic collapse within Russia.
Reconstruction Conference for Ukraine
🎦 40:51-42:46⏩
- A reconstruction conference for Ukraine is scheduled to be held in Berlin, with Zelenskyy confirmed to be in attendance.
- Jonathan questions the focus on reconstruction during an active conflict, suggesting resources might be better directed towards the war effort.
- He acknowledges the arguments for and against reconstruction, highlighting the economic benefits and job creation reconstruction can bring.
- He concludes by suggesting a more nuanced approach is needed, striking a balance between supporting the war effort and investing in Ukraine's future.
Wrap Up
🎦 42:46-43:00⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and signs off.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
What does "blos" mean in the context of FPV drones (timestamp 32:12)?
Clarify the discrepancy in the number of AMPS systems sent to Ukraine.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is a Ukraine War Military Aid update video, split into multiple parts.
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