Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News (+ Twitter Implosion)
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"We are asking Ukraine to fight in a way that we would not and to take casualties that we would not."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video, mentioning staying up late watching YouTube reaction videos. He's had his cup of tea and is ready to get on with the update.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses are high, with 790 personnel liquidated (up from 500s the previous day), 10 tanks, 20 armoured personnel vehicles (APVs), 26 artillery systems, 5 MLRS, 1 anti-aircraft system, 12 drones, 22 vehicles/fuel tanks, 3 pieces of special equipment
- Jonathan will analyse the figures in an extra video using Dell's spreadsheet
- Footage shown of a Russian T-90M tank having a catastrophic explosion
- Ukrainian forces using German-provided Berger Panzer ARVs to tow abandoned Ukrainian equipment, suggesting they control the area now
- The "White Wolf" Ukrainian special unit's monthly summary: 23 tanks, 8 BMPs, 2 MTLBs, 21 armoured vehicles, 10 artillery systems/MLRS, 2 special equipment units, 34 dugouts, 11 firing positions, 3 warehouses, 3 personnel concentration areas destroyed
Missile Attacks and Air Defence
- Ukraine shot down 8 Shahed drones and 3 Kalibr cruise missiles overnight (100% of what was fired according to Tim White)
- Footage of a Pantsir S1 firing at a Storm Shadow missile, which appears to hit near the Pantsir rather than being shot down. Unclear if the Pantsir was destroyed.
Wagner Losses and Reputation
- Zelensky claims Wagner has lost over 100,000 mercenaries in Ukraine (21,000 killed, 80,000 wounded)
- ISW reports Russian propagandists are conducting an information campaign to destroy Wagner's reputation as a uniquely effective fighting force
- Admission that it took Wagner 11 months to take Bakhmut, countering previous praise
Frontline Update
- Fighting reported in Klishchiivka and inside Kurdyumivka near Bakhmut. Ukrainian troops seem to be moving forward.
- Russia withdrawing troops from southern Ukraine to defend Bakhmut. If reinforcements are insufficient, it risks creating vulnerabilities in Kherson or Luhansk.
- Gradual Ukrainian advances towards Krasnohorivka north of Avdiivka
- Heavy battles continue near Antonivsky Bridge area in Kherson despite complications from flooding. Russians struggling to dislodge Ukrainian foothold.
Military Aid
- Spain allocating €55 million in new military aid, including 4 Leopard tanks, armoured vehicles, mobile hospital. PM Sanchez promises support for as long as needed.
- US considering providing cluster munitions to Ukraine according to top general Mark Milley, as Russia uses them and Ukraine has received some from other allies
- Ukrainian and Slovak arms factories agree to adapt Slovak Zuzana 2 self-propelled howitzer to Ukrainian requirements
- UK has provided parts from retired RAF Tornados to adapt Ukrainian Su-24s to fire Storm Shadow missiles
Russian Aerospace and Defence Industry Struggles
- UK intelligence update: Russia has cancelled 2023 MAKS airshow near Moscow due to security concerns and lack of foreign attendees. Will impact ability to secure export customers.
- Russian aerospace sector struggling under sanctions, personnel issues. Lack of appearances by key commander Surovikin since Wagner mutiny.
- Doubtful claims that Russia will produce 1,600 tanks per month as Uralvagonzavod plant shifts to exclusively military production
Geopolitics
- Spain's PM Sanchez visits Kyiv, delivers speech to parliament, meets Zelensky. Spain signs declaration supporting Ukraine's NATO accession.
- In Reuters interview, Trump says it's time to "force peace", get Russia and Ukraine to negotiate. Suggests Ukraine may need to concede territory. Criticised for appeasing Putin and problematic language about Ukraine's entitlement to its own land.
- Putin's admission of Wagner being state-funded could make war crimes prosecution easier
- Romania expels 40 Russian embassy staff as part of reducing Russian diplomatic presence
Twitter Implosion and Impact on OSINT
Jonathan explains the critical importance of Twitter for the OSINT community tracking the Ukraine war.
- Twitter's sudden restrictions limiting views have impacted war tracking and caused an uproar
- Speculation it is due to Elon Musk's mismanagement and cost-cutting leading to failure to pay bills
- Many OSINT and military analysts are frustrated and considering leaving the platform
- Jonathan notes if Twitter collapses it will directly impact his ability to produce videos
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and encourages them to like, subscribe and share the video. He signs off until the next update.
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