Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
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"It will take as long as it takes when one of your success criteria is not losing your own troops"
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides a truncated frontline update taken from his full news update video earlier in the day. He apologises that it won't be as detailed as normal.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northern border activity
There is ongoing activity by Ukrainian deep reconnaissance groups in the Bryansk region of Russia, west of Kursk and Belgorod. In a recent attempt to break into the territory, 4 Russian soldiers were killed and 7 injured, including 2 border guards. This kind of activity has been ongoing even if not widely reported.
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Sinkivka and CV-9040 sightings
Video evidence shows Swedish CV-9040 infantry fighting vehicles operating around Sinkivka. Russian claims of successes in this area are disputed by Ukrainian sources who say the claims are exaggerated. However, the Ukrainians do appear to be under some pressure around Sinkivka.
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Bakhmut and Klishchiivka
- The situation around Bakhmut has become calmer with still some activity around Kurdyumivka. The Ukrainians don't appear to be pushing as hard as a month ago.
- There is disagreement between sources on the status of Klishchiivka. Andrew Perpetua believes the Russians do not control it, despite some confusing older video footage emerging.
- The key area is the trench network on the heights rather than the town itself. The Russians attacked along the ridge line from the north which was their only viable option but it was poorly executed and they suffered heavy losses from Ukrainian artillery.
- The Ukrainians are trying to get across the railway line at Andriivka but are struggling due to Russian defences and the raised embankment.
- Jonathan speculates the Ukrainians may have moved some offensive troops away from Bakhmut to fix Russians in place with minimal forces while concentrating resources elsewhere, as hinted at in a New York Times article. American officials have advised Ukraine to do this.
Staromaiorske area
Both Russian and Ukrainian sources indicate some Ukrainian gains around Staromaiorske, biting into the high ground between there and Priyutne. The ravine and river in this area are heavily mined by the Russians, making it difficult for Ukraine to attack directly. Instead they are pressuring Priyutne from the north while also pushing in from the east and west to chip away at the salient.
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Robotyne axis
- Russian claims of successful counterattacks retaking lost positions in central Robotyne are not considered credible by Jonathan. Such claims are common from Russia after Ukraine takes an area.
- Ukrainian sources state the Russians have been completely pushed out of southern Robotyne and their line is now south of the town. Ukraine is making further gains to the southeast towards Novopokrovka and Verbove.
- The area Ukraine is advancing into has extensive Russian trench lines which make progress difficult and costly. American officials have suggested Ukraine should commit more troops to make faster progress, but Ukraine is mindful of preserving its forces.
- Jonathan believes Ukraine is starting to gain some momentum and the liberation of significant settlements in the Suravikin line area is noteworthy, even if progress is slower than some would like. The initiative remains with Ukraine.
Wrap up
Jonathan is going to make a further video analysing in more depth whether the Ukrainian counteroffensive is truly succeeding or not, compared to what he considers flawed assumptions and metrics used by many analysts. He thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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