Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitics News, Trump Analysis

"So if you've got Peskov on your side I mean goodness me... "

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-01:11⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to the third part of his Ukraine War news update for 31/05/2024. He shares a humorous anecdote about his partner accidentally shaving his head with clippers upside down, providing a lighthearted start to the video.

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US Confirms Permission for Ukraine to Strike Russian Territory

🎦 01:11-03:32⏩

Jonathan reports that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has officially confirmed that the US has given Ukraine permission to strike into Russian territory with American weapons. He quotes Blinken's statement, highlighting the ambiguity of the geographical areas that Ukraine is authorised to strike in. Jonathan then discusses the differing positions of various European countries on this issue, with many granting permission but specifying target areas. He mentions Germany's position, as communicated by Deputy Spokesman of the Government Wolfgang Birkner, that authorisation relates only to Russian territory bordering the Kharkiv region, not the entire Russian territory.

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Sullivanism and the "Curbs of Doom"

🎦 03:32-09:46⏩

Jonathan delves into an analysis of Jake Sullivan's views on US foreign policy, citing a 2020 interview where Sullivan described the concept of "curbs" to contain Russia's unpredictability and prevent escalation. This framework, according to Sullivan, involved limiting both sides – Russia refraining from attacks on NATO territory and using nuclear weapons, while the West limits the supply and use of weapons for Ukraine. Jonathan argues that the US is now dismantling this framework as Russia has chosen to operate outside of it. He explains that the "curbs" are actually being adjusted to manage the situation, with potential costs falling on Ukraine. He criticizes this approach for its focus on managing Russia rather than supporting Ukraine's needs and agency. Jonathan argues that this approach inadvertently fuels Russia's narrative of a proxy war and undermines trust in the US. He further criticizes the "hubris" of US advisors, who view themselves as managing the conflict in a parental role, contributing to the damage caused by Russia.

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Medvedev's Nuclear Threat

🎦 09:46-09:53⏩

Following the news of Ukraine being given permission to strike into Russia, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has issued a nuclear threat, stating that Russia's use of nuclear weapons is "not a bluff". Jonathan acknowledges that Medvedev's statement is unsurprising and that it is important to treat the threat of nuclear war seriously. However, he believes that Medvedev's statement is simply empty rhetoric, adding to a pattern of Russia's increasing bluster.

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China's Absence from Ukraine Peace Summit

🎦 09:53-10:06⏩

Jonathan reports that China has declined an invitation to attend a Ukraine peace summit scheduled for Switzerland in two weeks. Reuters, citing three sources, states that Beijing rejected the invitation because "the conditions for participation had not been met".

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Ukraine Signs Security Agreements with Nordic Countries

🎦 10:06-11:58⏩

Jonathan reports on Ukrainian President Zelensky's visit to Sweden, where he signed security agreements with Sweden, Norway, and Iceland. These agreements include military aid from Sweden, amounting to €6.5 billion from 2024 to 2026. Jonathan highlights that Iceland, lacking a standing army, cannot provide military equipment but has pledged financial assistance. He also briefly mentions that Ukraine and Sweden have signed a security deal providing Ukraine with military aid.

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Zelensky's Interview with the Guardian

🎦 11:58-23:48⏩

Jonathan summarizes a Guardian interview with Zelensky, highlighting several key points. He notes that Zelensky expressed concern about the insufficient quantity of new US weapons for equipping additional Ukrainian brigades in the northeast where Russia is advancing. He also quotes Zelensky's comparison of Putin to Hitler, stating, "Putin's not crazy, he's dangerous, which is much scarier". Jonathan further details Zelensky's request to former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to lobby former US President Trump for more aid to Ukraine. He also mentions Zelensky's positive comments about the UK Labour leader Keir Starmer and current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, suggesting that there is strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the UK. Jonathan transitions into discussing the upcoming UK general election, where Labour is predicted to win. He highlights potential impacts on Ukraine, speculating that bipartisan support may ensure a smooth transition and continued aid. He concludes this topic by noting the unfair media landscape in the UK, where certain individuals, like Nigel Farage, are given disproportionate airtime despite limited political support.

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Russia's Precarious Economic Situation

🎦 23:48-36:28⏩

Jonathan discusses Russia's financial and economic situation, highlighting its precarious state. He argues that Russia's military strength belies its economic weakness and that the battlefield is the least precarious aspect. He mentions Joe Bloggs's video about Russia's oil and gas revenue, highlighting a significant decline in recent years. Despite increased oil prices, Russia's total oil and gas revenue is down by 45% compared to 2021. Jonathan explains that sanctions and discounts are causing this drop. He also examines the non-oil and gas revenue, noting a seemingly strong performance, but attributes this to Russia's war footing and increased defense spending. He emphasizes that this is an unsustainable model and poses a risk to other sectors. Jonathan then delves into inward investment, showing a substantial decrease in recent years. This is a critical source of income for Russia, especially given sanctions on their exports. He discusses the impact of this decline on the Russian economy, highlighting the detrimental effect on future planning. He also cites the European Union External Action Diplomatic Service report, which highlights the official figures' dodginess and untrustworthiness, further emphasizing Russia's economic struggles.

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Russia's Economic Challenges and Potential Collapse

🎦 36:28-43:45⏩

Jonathan highlights the challenges facing Russia due to its economic woes. He notes the increasing defense budget while simultaneously struggling with investment and limited funds. He points out that this is detrimental to Russia's overall economy. He mentions the war-time Keynesianism approach and the inflation rate, which remains relatively high. Jonathan also discusses the impact of sanctions, emphasizing that they are not perfect but have had a significant effect on Russia's ability to obtain crucial goods. He uses the example of widgets, illustrating how sanctions have increased costs for Russia despite their ability to circumvent them. He also examines the labor market crisis, pointing to a shortage of men and a brain drain due to mobilization. Jonathan concludes this topic by arguing that the economic pressures on Russia are a key factor in their potential collapse, which would greatly benefit Ukraine. He explains that a weakened Russian defense due to economic turmoil would create opportunities for Ukraine to regain its territories.

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Trump's Conviction and its Impact on Ukraine

🎦 43:45-51:14⏩

Jonathan discusses Trump's conviction on 34 counts in the New York court. He emphasizes that the verdict was delivered by an independent court and jury, not by political opponents. He acknowledges the swiftness of the verdict, indicating strong evidence against Trump. He then moves into analyzing the potential impact of the conviction on the US election. He highlights the Kremlin's reaction, which framed Trump's conviction as the elimination of political rivals. Jonathan points out that Putin's support for Trump suggests his view of Trump as a political ally, comparable to Viktor Orban. He further emphasizes that Putin prefers Trump over Biden. Jonathan then analyzes the potential impact of the conviction on independent and swing voters, suggesting that it could lead to some voters shifting away from Trump. He concludes this topic by discussing the importance of the US election for Ukraine, expressing his belief that Trump would not be beneficial for Ukraine.

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"October Surprise" and Trump's Alleged Racist Remarks

🎦 51:14-57:18⏩

Jonathan discusses a potential "October surprise" related to Trump, that could have a significant impact on the election. He reports that a recording of Trump allegedly using the N-word on the set of The Apprentice has surfaced. He acknowledges that this revelation could potentially be more damaging to Trump's campaign than the conviction itself. Jonathan quotes Omarosa Newman, a former Trump employee, who has confirmed that she heard the recording and that it confirms Trump's racist views. He also cites statements from Trump campaign officials, suggesting they are aware of the tape and are trying to figure out how to manage it. He concludes this topic by emphasizing the significance of the tape for the election, particularly for mobilizing black and brown voters.

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US Election Implications and the Importance of Ukraine's Victory

🎦 57:18-59:41⏩

Jonathan summarizes the potential implications of the US election for Ukraine. He suggests that a Biden victory with a Democratic-controlled House and a Republican-controlled Senate could create a scenario where a split government could still be supportive of Ukraine. He concludes the video by reiterating his view that Ukraine's victory is crucial for global stability and security, emphasizing the importance of continued international support for Ukraine.

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Wrap Up

🎦 59:41-59:42⏩

Jonathan concludes the video with a sign-off, thanking the viewers and promising to speak soon.

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