Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War News Update, the first part for the 8th of December 2024. He apologises for his dishevelled appearance, explaining that he's feeling unwell and only recently woken up.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:20-01:53⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses from the previous day. He notes the fluctuating nature of the losses across categories:
- Personnel: 1,460 (up from the previous day, but lower than recent highs)
- Tanks: 5 (up from minimal losses the day before)
- Troop-carrying AFVs: 36 (almost double the daily average)
- Artillery systems: 3 (one of the lowest figures in a long time)
- Anti-aircraft warfare systems: 1
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 17 (exceptionally low)
- Special equipment: 2
He speculates that weather conditions, personnel and equipment shortages, and the situation in Syria may be contributing factors.
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Syria Update and its Implications for Ukraine
🎦 01:53-03:15⏩
Jonathan discusses the fall of Damascus to rebels and the potential implications of Russia's withdrawal from Syria for the war in Ukraine. He highlights the possibility of Russia redirecting resources and personnel from Syria to Ukraine, a point also raised by another analyst on BBC News. He also mentions rumours about Assad's plane potentially being shot down and the uncertainty surrounding the situation.
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Andrew Perpetua's Loss Assessment
🎦 03:16-06:31⏩
Jonathan presents Andrew Perpetua's loss assessment from two days prior (6th December). He notes that Russian losses are approximately two to two and a half times higher than Ukrainian losses, with a similar ratio for combat asset losses.
- Ukrainian Losses: Maman-C vehicle, M119 artillery piece, four tanks (none Western-provided), five IFVs (including a Marder 1A3), Western MRAPs and IMVs, a BRDM-2.
- Russian Losses: TOR-M2 air defence system, counter-battery radar, Brem-M1 recovery vehicle, various artillery pieces, approximately ten tanks (mostly destroyed, abandoned or captured, including a T-72), five BMPs, five APCs (mainly MTLBs), and numerous civilian vehicles destroyed by FPV drones, mines, and ATGM strikes.
Jonathan presents video footage of Russian vehicles being destroyed by mines, highlighting the Russians' seemingly careless approach to minefields.
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Zelensky's Statement on Casualties
🎦 06:31-09:01⏩
Jonathan discusses Zelensky's statement on Ukrainian and Russian casualty figures following a meeting with Trump.
- Ukraine: Zelensky admits to 43,000 military personnel killed and 370,000 wounded since the start of the full-scale invasion, suggesting a wounded-to-killed ratio of around nine to one. Jonathan considers this ratio exceptionally good, potentially propagandistic but not necessarily untrue.
- Russia: Zelensky claims Russian losses exceed 198,000 killed and 550,000 wounded, a ratio closer to two or three to one. Jonathan believes the higher likelihood of a wounded Russian soldier dying compared to a Ukrainian soldier is accurate based on anecdotal evidence.
Zelensky attributes Russia's strategy of incurring high casualties to their desire to capture more land before facing unbearable international pressure.
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Kremlin's Response and Trump-Zelensky Meeting
🎦 09:01-15:02⏩
- Dmitry Peskov denies Trump's claims regarding casualty ratios, but Jonathan dismisses this due to Russia's history of misinformation. He expresses caution about Zelensky's figures, emphasising the need for critical analysis.
- Jonathan shows footage of a Russian soldier surrendering to a Ukrainian drone using toilet paper as a white flag. He also shows footage of Russians being transported precariously in a trailer due to equipment shortages.
- Jonathan analyses Trump's Truth Social post following his meeting with Zelensky, noting Trump's claim that Zelensky wants to make a deal to stop the war. He compares this to Trump's misrepresentation of conversations with the Mexican president. He highlights Trump's statement that "Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now", viewing this as a significant admission of Russia's vulnerability and the potential impact of Ukraine's efforts and economic sanctions.
- Jonathan discusses the importance of Ukraine getting its message directly to Trump, rather than through biased sources like Elon Musk or David Sachs.
Syria Update and Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 15:02-18:15⏩
Jonathan revisits the situation in Syria, sharing a tweet detailing Assad regime equipment losses since 27th November, primarily Russian-provided equipment. He wonders how much equipment Russia will lose during its evacuation of Tartus and Khmeimim Air Base. He shows footage of Assad statues being toppled and celebrations in Latakia. Jonathan highlights the discovery of Islamic State flags and uniforms in a former Russian base, suggesting potential false flag operations.
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Overnight Strikes and Zaporizhzhia Aftermath
🎦 18:16-18:15⏩
- Jonathan reports on overnight strikes, with Russia firing no missiles but 74 attack drones, all intercepted. Russia also claims to have intercepted 46 Ukrainian drones. Explosions were reported in Taganrog.
- He mentions the horrific aftermath of the Zaporizhzhia strike, where two schoolgirls were burned alive in a car. Nine or ten civilians died, and many were injured.
Syria's Strategic Importance and Russia's Presence
🎦 18:16-22:15⏩
Jonathan discusses the broader implications of Russia losing Tartus, a naval presence they have held for over 50 years. He criticises the BBC's coverage for downplaying Syria's strategic military importance to Russia. He highlights the significance of Syria as a Mediterranean launching point for Russian aircraft and naval vessels. He notes reports of Russian warship withdrawals from Tartus and speculates on the remaining Russian presence and potential equipment losses.
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The Unpredictability of Regime Change and Russia's Potential Collapse
🎦 22:15-25:22⏩
Jonathan discusses the unexpected nature of the Assad regime's downfall, drawing parallels to potential scenarios in Russia. He suggests that Russia's heavy investment in Syria, both financially and in terms of personnel, could contribute to a decline in public trust and potentially accelerate their own collapse. He links the fall of Syria to Russia's weakened state due to the war in Ukraine, and also mentions the impact of Israeli actions against Iran and Hezbollah.
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Andrew Perpetua's Analysis of Russian Advances and Aid to Ukraine
🎦 25:22-28:37⏩
Jonathan shares Andrew Perpetua's analysis of Russian advances in Ukraine, which Perpetua sees as a failure of the Russian military due to unsustainable casualty rates. Perpetua argues that the current rate of Russian advance is a good sign for Ukraine, especially given the increased aid they are receiving, primarily from the US. Perpetua criticises US officials for the delay in aid. Jonathan notes Lloyd Austin's announcement of almost a billion dollars in aid, primarily HIMARS and drones. Perpetua emphasises the importance of Ukraine addressing issues such as command structure and manpower before this aid runs out, warning that failure to do so could lead to a resurgence of the Russian advance.
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Trump, Zelensky and Macron Meeting
🎦 28:37-37:35⏩
Jonathan discusses the meeting between Trump, Zelensky and Macron in Notre Dame. He notes that Macron played a key role in arranging the meeting despite Trump's apparent reluctance. Trump's post-meeting claims about Zelensky's desire for a deal are met with scepticism by Jonathan, who believes Trump is misrepresenting Zelensky's position. He points out Trump's claim that Ukraine has ridiculously lost 400,000 soldiers and calls for an immediate ceasefire. Jonathan analyses Zelensky's comments after the meeting, where he emphasises a fair peace and prevents further Russian aggression. He notes Zelensky's subtle pushback against Trump's demands for immediate negotiations.
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Russian Economy's Reliance on War
🎦 37:35-41:08⏩
Jonathan discusses the Russian economy's heavy reliance on its war effort, quoting experts who warn that Putin is unlikely to accept a full-scale peace deal due to this dependence. He mentions Russia's record £100bn defence budget, constituting 40% of their total economy. He quotes economist Fuca from Lancaster University, who states that Russia cannot afford for the war to end without becoming a vassal state. He also cites Mark Gagliotti, who predicts that any deal brokered will amount to a ceasefire, allowing Putin to rebuild his armed forces.
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Ruble's Decline and Economic Instability
🎦 41:08-41:34⏩
Jonathan continues the discussion of the Russian economy, highlighting the ruble's decline to its lowest level since the war began and the impact of US sanctions. He explains that this will further encourage capital flight, deplete Russia's reserves, and increase import costs. He notes Russia's high inflation rate and the central bank's interest rate hikes, which are expected to further slow the economy. He concludes that the Russian economy is in significant trouble.
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Negotiations and Russia's Fragile Position
🎦 41:34-42:07⏩
Jonathan argues against forcing Ukraine into immediate negotiations, citing Russia's fragile economic position and the need to let the situation play out. He references Jack Keane's advice to the incoming Trump administration. He expresses concern that Trump's push for immediate negotiations might not align with this strategy.
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Wrap Up
🎦 42:07-42:07⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking viewers and saying goodbye.
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