Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"It is much more worrying than being not very bad and plausible um or very bad and not plausible the level of worry depends on context and losing senate would be very bad so seeing even weak evidence is much more emotional because consequences are so huge even remaining skeptical"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:31⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a very late frontline update - it is 2am his time on 24/01 but wanted to get the video out about the events of 23/01. He reminds viewers that there is a key to the map.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeastern Front
🎦 00:31-01:39⏩
Jonathan starts by looking at the Northeastern sector of the front line.
- There is some focus on Tabavivka where the Russians have been attacking North of Kreminna and where they took Krokmalna a couple of days ago. Jonathan notes that the different mappers now appear to be aligned on Russian gains here after Surat Maps had initially been much quicker to show Russian advances.
- Around Bilohorivka, he notes there is a lot of activity taking place but no changes to report.
- In Bakhmut, Jonathan points out that there is a lot of fighting to the north of the city around Vesele. Referring to comments by Andrew Perpetua about the topography there, Jonathan expects heavy fighting there in the near future.
Klishchiivka
🎦 01:39-05:47⏩
There are no changes to the mapping to report today in Bakhmut itself, however, Jonathan focuses on a trench network to the Northwest of Klishchiivka on the high ground overlooking the town.
- Surat Maps had shown this trench network as being under Russian control for some time, something that other mappers had disputed. Jonathan states that if the Russians had control of the trenches then they would control Klishchiivka, so he thinks that this area is contested.
- Global War Monitor reported Russian advances in this area and now Getty images are reporting Ukrainian counterattacks here. Photos show that the Ukrainians may have retaken a large part of this trench network but that it is probably still a heavily contested grey zone. This demonstrates the fluid situation on the ground.
- Jonathan shows how dangerous it is to rely on just one source for information. What can appear to be a Russian gain on one map (Syriac Maps), is shown to be far more nuanced when other sources are considered (Getty Images, Andrew Perpetua). He urges caution and to use his maps with other sources for a balanced perspective.
Avdiivka - Stepova and Ukrainian Counterattacks
🎦 05:47-07:19⏩
- Footage has emerged of a Ukrainian Bradley fighting in a tree line around Stepova - the second such incident of a Bradley fighting there recently.
- Syriac Maps is reporting Ukrainian counterattacks Northwest of Stepova with some limited gains. Jonathan reads a Syriac Maps tweet confirming these Ukrainian counterattacks.
Avdiivka - Southern Advances
🎦 07:19-08:44⏩
Syriac maps shows that the Russians have made some gains in the south of Avdiivka, pushing past the Tsarskoe Ohto restaurant and into the dacha area. Andriy Perpetua is more cautious but confirms these gains. However, Syriac Maps is also showing the Russians taking the Zenit strongpoint to the South West of Avdiivka. Given that Zenit is a heavily defended, fortified position this would represent a huge loss for the Ukrainians if true. Jonathan is sceptical, especially given the short time frame involved.
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Avdiivka - Zenit Strongpoint
🎦 08:44-18:15⏩
- Warmapper is reporting that the Russians have pushed South of Avdiivka and that the Zenit strong point is at risk of being cut off.
- Deepstate Maps contradicts this, reporting that Ukrainian troops have sent reinforcements and are counter attacking in the area. They also state that the Russians launched an attack on Ukrainian trenches along the road South of Kamyanka, but that Ukrainian troops are still present in the surrounding dachas. Jonathan notes that Deepstate Maps often use this language to walk back claims of Russian gains that may have been premature.
- Andrew Perpetua has stated that he is less worried about Zenit, having initially been very concerned. He notes that losing Zenit would be a significant loss for the Ukrainians so any evidence is taken very seriously, but believes that the evidence is now debunked. However, he remains concerned about the situation given that Russians are making gains in the North of Avdiivka which would give them a route to attack Zenit from the North.
- Jonathan references an earlier stream by Andrew Perpetua in which Perpetua stated that the only realistic way to take Zenit would be from the North, and that any attack from the South would be "suicidal" due to the extensive minefields laid by the Ukrainians.
- Perpetua explains that Zenit is strategically important because it overlooks two vital farm roads which are currently being used to supply Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka. Loss of Zenit would enable the Russians to cut off this supply route.
- Jonathan points out the vehicle tracks on the map which indicate the importance of these two farm roads to supplying Ukrainian troops, and the fact that there is very little other cover for vehicles. This road is the only paved road into Avdiivka that is usable and is vital for resupply.
Avdiivka - Summary
🎦 18:15-19:07⏩
Jonathan concludes that whilst Syriac Maps may be overconfident in showing that the Russians have captured Zenit, he concedes that the situation there will be "hairy" given recent Russian gains in the North and their potential ability to cut off the two vital farm roads from the North. He believes that Syriac Maps may have been drawn in by rumours circulating on both Ukrainian and Russian Telegram channels. He expects Syriac Maps to either quietly forget about the claim or wait until it does fall and claim he was right all along.
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South of Avdiivka - Outpost Plant
🎦 19:07-21:19⏩
- Moving further South, to an area South of Krasnohorivka and North of Marinka, Jonathan highlights an outpost or plant that has been the subject of fighting for a number of months.
- The Russians attacked it with a column of vehicles a few months ago and both sides subsequently attacked it with FPV drones. This is the same area where well known Russian drone commander, Donbass Devushka, was taken out by Ukrainian cluster munitions.
- It now appears that Ukrainian forces may have retaken this outpost. Global War Monitor are reporting that the 80th Air Assault Brigade have liberated it, and Andrew Perpetua has made significant changes to his map to reflect this, pushing the Russian lines back to the East. Jonathan expects Surat Maps to make changes to his map too.
Novo-Mykolaivka
🎦 21:19-22:19⏩
Moving West, to Novo-Mykolaivka, Jonathan states that whilst there are no changes to report, the area is coming under increasing pressure, especially from the South as the Russians try to advance towards Kostiantynivka. He notes that Novo-Mykolaivka doesn't have any intrinsic value for the Russians, rather it is strategically important for both sides because of its proximity to Kostiantynivka. If the Russians can take Kostiantynivka it will allow them to cut off the road heading South to Vuhledar and will leave Vuhledar vulnerable to attack. This will also prevent the Ukrainians from using HIMARS to hit the outskirts of Mariupol.
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Southern Front - Crinky
🎦 22:19-23:58⏩
Moving further West to the Southern Front, Jonathan reports no changes to the front line but that the situation around Crinky remains "tough".
- He recalls how well regarded Russian drone commander, "Moses" was recently taken out by Ukrainian forces there.
- Military blogger, War Gonzo, has reported that the loss of Moses and his unit has allowed the Ukrainians to resume the rotation of troops in and out of the settlement, something that they had found extremely difficult before due to the effectiveness of Moses' unit in taking out Ukrainian troops as they tried to cross the river.
- Jonathan compares Moses to Ukrainian drone ace, Magyar, and speculates that if the Russians had been able to take Magyar out it would have been a significant propaganda victory for them, as well as denying the Ukrainians his expertise. Taking out effective drone units is extremely important for both sides.
Wrap Up
🎦 23:58-24:13⏩
Jonathan signs off by saying thanks for watching and asks viewers to like, subscribe and share.
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