Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"It's going to be a fairly quick one today, isn't it? I always say that because I'm not going to go into any granular detail."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:18⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to another slightly quicker frontline update.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Northern Frontline Update

🎦 00:18-01:33⏩

Jonathan reports continued activity North of the border around Kazinka with the possible capture of Russian prisoners by the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK). He is skeptical about the wisdom of recent attacks in the area, believing they are yet to achieve their objectives. There are doubts over whether the destruction of Russian equipment outweighs the losses suffered by the Ukrainian side, which Jonathan believes have been significant.

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Kupyansk-Svatove Frontline Update

🎦 01:33-01:47⏩

Jonathan reports no significant activity in the Kupyansk-Svatove area.

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Kreminna Frontline Update

🎦 01:47-04:37⏩

Jonathan describes small Russian gains around Terni which is "super important" due to its proximity to Lyman. He notes that both Suriyat Maps and Andrew Perpetua agree on these gains, which are corroborated by a report from a Ukrainian video journalist. The importance of Lyman stems from it being a key strategic objective in the counter-offensive which recaptured this area for Ukraine. Russian forces are attempting to cross the Zherebets River and advance towards Lyman. Jonathan states that the Ukrainians are pushing hard in the forests South of the salient, aiming to cut off the extended Russian salient. Jonathan believes that the situation at Terni is worrying for the Ukrainians. Further south, the situation at Bilohrivka remains static but the fighting there has been fierce, due to the challenging topography. The high ground surrounding a deep chalk pit makes advances difficult for either side. The Russians are attempting to advance from the East, having first had to negotiate a descent to the South, followed by an ascent to reach their current position. Jonathan highlights the importance of the area West of Zolotarevka which offers the Russians a route across the river and access to high ground that could be used to attack Bilohrivka. This, he believes, is how the Russians could surround and capture Bilohrivka. He goes on to discuss the strategic importance of the Siverskyi Donets River which the Russians are finding impossible to cross without incurring unsustainable losses. He recounts the loss of 100 pieces of Russian equipment in one attempted crossing. He cites a report from Euromaidan Press praising the Ukrainian resistance at Bilohrivka and suggesting that it holds the key to resisting the Russians in 2024. He expresses skepticism at the report's claims about the resilience of the Ukrainian resistance.

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Russian Tactics at Bilohrivka

🎦 06:52-08:44⏩

Jonathan details typical Russian assault tactics, involving company-sized units supported by tanks, BMPs, FPV drones and KABs. He explains the significance of the KABs - guided air-dropped bombs - which he demonstrates the size of using footage of Shoigu touring a factory. He describes these munitions as "sizable", "absolutely huge" and notes their use to "great effect" against Ukrainian positions, including those at Bilohrivka. He reports that Ukrainian forces have been forced to evacuate due to limited artillery support, facing daily Russian assaults for over a year. They have also experienced ammunition shortages and a lack of air defence. However, the Euromaidan Press article he cites notes that well-constructed fortifications have slowed the Russian advance and that the Ukrainians are exhausting the Russian forces and frustrating their objectives. The report goes on to highlight the challenges facing Ukraine in 2024: artillery shortages and increasing numbers of Russian KAB strikes. It suggests that to regain the initiative, they will need to mobilise more troops, rotate and train them, and continue to receive Western support.

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Ukrainian Troop Rotations

🎦 08:44-09:34⏩

Jonathan picks up on the topic of troop rotations, noting that there have been reports suggesting that recent rotations may mean Ukraine will not need to mobilise as many troops as previously thought. He cites a recent audit undertaken by Zaluzhnyi revealing that 30% of Ukrainian troops have no frontline experience, which Jonathan describes as "pretty decent".

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Euromaidan Press Analysis

🎦 09:34-10:45⏩

Jonathan continues to examine the Euromaidan Press article, which claims that Ukraine's use of fortifications and concealment has bought them critical time and prevented the Russians from advancing. The article identifies three critical areas for Ukraine in 2024: manpower, fortifications and ammunition, and concludes that with sufficient resources Ukraine can successfully resist the Russian offensive. However, Jonathan expresses reservations, arguing that the focus on Bilohrivka is misplaced as the situation there is unique and not a "microcosm" of the whole frontline, because of the unusual topography. He states that elsewhere, fortifications are more important, as they are not a replacement for natural defensive features like those found at Bilohrivka.

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Bakhmut Frontline Update

🎦 10:45-11:52⏩

Moving South to Bakhmut, Jonathan reports that, according to Suriyat Maps, after a lull of several days, the Russians have resumed attacks on the last remaining Ukrainian positions at Ivaniske, between Chasiv Yar and Bakhmut. He describes the Ukrainian defence of this area as "fantastic", holding out for the best part of a week. Jonathan recounts a recent conversation with Greg Terry who had been speaking to a Ukrainian battalion commander in Chasiv Yar. The commander informed Terry that whilst they were expecting to lose Chasiv Yar, they were confident that the defensive positions in their rear would be able to resist the Russian advance. Jonathan believes that if Ukraine can maintain sufficient manpower, fortifications and ammunition then they may be able to hold Chasiv Yar. However, he concedes that it may ultimately fall.

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Avdiivka Frontline Update

🎦 11:52-13:08⏩

Jonathan moves on to Avdiivka, where he reports several Russian advances. He highlights a Russian advance on the small town of Tonenke, pushing the Ukrainians back across the river at Orlivka, where they are now dug in on the high ground, to which Jonathan expects them to retreat. He expects to see the Russians advance as far as Umanske, with the Ukrainians attempting to hold the high ground behind the river. Jonathan anticipates that the Russians will struggle to maintain their attacks here as they will be unable to use their preferred tactic of using BMPs and BTRs to deliver troops and then withdraw under cover. The need to cross the river will force them to attack on foot. He illustrates his point by pointing out the difficulties the Russians encountered earlier in the war when they lost 100 pieces of military equipment in one disastrous river crossing. Jonathan refers to Suriyat Maps, who report that the Russians are now in full control of Tonenke and are pushing West.

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Mariinka Frontline Update

🎦 13:08-14:15⏩

Jonathan reports slight gains in Marinka, confirmed by both Deep State Map and Suriyat Maps. Suriyat Maps states that the Russians have made new advances in the plantations North of Novomykhailivka, which Jonathan believes to be insignificant. He credits JR for the mapping and describes him as "a legend". Jonathan observes that Deep State Map has clarified its data, revealing that the situation in the area is unchanged. He confirms that there have been some Russian advances in what were heavily fortified areas.

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Velyka Novosilka Frontline Update

🎦 14:15-14:36⏩

Jonathan reports that the front has been relatively static, with Avdiivka seeing limited Russian success. The fighting in the past week has been quieter than the previous week. There is nothing to report at Velyka Novosilka.

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Robotyne Frontline Update

🎦 14:36-16:41⏩

At Robotyne, Andrew Perpetua agrees with earlier reports from Suriyat Maps that the Russians have gained control of the treeline North-West of Verbove. Jonathan notes a "considerable difference" between Andrew Perpetua's maps and those produced by Suriyat Maps which shows a large swathe of territory North-East of Velyka Novosilka under Russian control. Jonathan questions Suriyat Maps' methodology, which he believes is based on the flawed assumption that any Russian advance will inevitably succeed. He is critical of Suriyat Maps' reliance on pro-Russian sources such as TASS and highlights the frequent need to issue retrospective corrections when claims of Russian gains prove to be inaccurate. Jonathan contrasts Suriyat Maps' approach with that of Andrew Perpetua, which relies on a far wider range of sources, including Ukrainian soldiers, as well as open-source intelligence.

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Vuhledar Frontline Update

🎦 16:41-17:29⏩

Jonathan reports no change in Vuhledar, showing recent footage of the town which he describes as "completely war-torn" and resembling a "bomb site" with "bullet holes riddling all the walls". He predicts that the town will have to be bulldozed and rebuilt after the war.

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Wrap Up

🎦 17:29-18:08⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and for their support, particularly those who have watched several videos. He acknowledges that it has been a busy day for content, with lots of news and live streams. He reminds viewers that there will be another live stream tomorrow with Anastasia Pereskovava, who lives in Kharkiv Oblast.

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