Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"They [the Ukrainians] approximately moved not far at all. And that meant that that changed everything really for them."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-02:06⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the first frontline update in a few days, apologising for the delay which was due to his recent trip to Ukraine and subsequent illness. He explains that he has finally managed to catch up on mapping with 2.5 hours of work yesterday. Jonathan addresses criticism from pro-Russians, highlighting that it's been challenging to map due to the significant changes in the frontline, which are more difficult to reflect when they are large and infrequent.
Return to top⤴️
📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Mapping Update: Northeastern Front
🎦 02:06-04:06⏩
Jonathan shares the latest map, thanking JR for updating the Deep State map to include the entire eastern front, enabling a more consistent view with three lines. Jonathan notes that the Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna line has seen no movement in recent days, suggesting this is good news for Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Analysis: Russian Troop Buildup and Ukrainian Challenges
🎦 04:06-05:56⏩
Jonathan analyses the Russian troop buildup and assesses the quality of the troops. He speculates that the troops are unlikely to be elite, considering they are likely conscripted prisoners. Jonathan believes that both sides are feeling the strain on resources after two years of war, with Ukraine having exhausted its initial wave of volunteers. He references Budanov's estimate that Russia is both recruiting and losing approximately 30,000 soldiers per month. Jonathan points to five major areas of Russian offensive activity:
- Sieniavka
- West of Kreminna
- Bakhmut (including Soledar and Siversk)
- Avdiivka, Mariinka, Novomykolaivka and Robotyne
- Shevchenko (near Vuhledar)
Jonathan links the increased Russian activity to the internationally reported shortage of ammunition impacting Ukraine. He suggests that Russia sees this as an opportune time to attack.
Return to top⤴️
Frontline Update: Kreminna, Siversk and Bakhmut
🎦 05:56-09:25⏩
Jonathan provides a detailed overview of the frontline, referencing various sources (Syriac Maps, Deep State Map, Andrew Perpetua). He reports small Russian gains north of the Kreminna Salient, towards Terny and Zarichne.
- Siversk Frontline: Jonathan observes slow Russian gains around Vesele and Berestove (north of Bakhmut), and highlights consistent progress with the Russians having retaken territory lost in the Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in May 2023. Jonathan expresses uncertainty about the cost of these gains for the Russians.
- Bakhmut: Jonathan notes Russian gains near Vasyukivka (south of Siversk), pushing the Ukrainians back to their counteroffensive lines. He describes significant Russian activity around Borynivka, Kramivka and Ivaniske (northwest of Bakhmut), highlighting the strategic importance of these settlements as a buffer zone for Chasiv Yar. Jonathan observes that Russia has retaken a significant amount of territory west of Ivaniske in recent days and reports that Russian forces are close to the settlement. Jonathan expresses concern about the Ukrainian's ability to hold Chasiv Yar, despite it being well-defended, given the pressure on that part of the frontline.
Analysis: Ukrainian Defensive Preparations
🎦 09:25-13:10⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukrainian defensive preparations, drawing on insights from Francis Farrell (Kiev Independent/Ukraine: The Latest podcast). He highlights criticism that Ukraine has not focused enough on defensive fortifications, unlike the Russians who successfully used extensive trench systems to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Jonathan questions the defensive preparations made around Avdiivka, considering the known Russian intent to capture the city. He references a conversation with Greg (no surname given), who describes the minimal defences in place. Jonathan speculates that Ukraine was overconfident in its counteroffensive ambitions, believing that retaking territory would negate the need for extensive defensive lines. He concludes that the failure of the counteroffensive to meet its objectives has left the Ukrainians in a precarious position, lacking adequate defences.
Return to top⤴️
Frontline Update and Analysis: Avdiivka
🎦 13:10-24:23⏩
Jonathan analyses the situation in Avdiivka, noting that Russia now controls the town centre and is clearing out the remaining Ukrainian resistance. He highlights Lastochkyne, west of Avdiivka, as the area of the fiercest fighting, and laments the loss of the Avdiivka Coke Plant.
- Syriac Maps: Jonathan references Syriac Maps, reporting that Russia considers the capture of Avdiivka complete and anticipates redeploying troops to other areas of the frontline. He suggests that future Russian advances are likely to be gradual attritional ones rather than large-scale offensives. Jonathan outlines likely Russian objectives based on Syriac Maps analysis:
- West of Avdiivka, towards Pervomaiske.
- West/Southwest of Donetsk, towards Kurakhove, in a similar fashion to the Mariinka operation.
- Siege of Pobieda, to enable a northern advance on Kostiantynivka, potentially leading to a collapse of Ukrainian forces in Paraskoviivka and Novomykolaivka, significantly reducing the Ukrainian salient around Vuhledar.
- Taking Kostyantynivka could then pave the way for an advance on Velyka Novosilka.
- Further South (Donetsk Oblast): Jonathan analyses the situation on the southern Donbas frontline, noting the slow Russian advance on Kurakhove (a longstanding objective) and the potential for a renewed push west from Mariinka towards Krasnohorivka, leveraging the mine already under their control. Jonathan observes that Ukrainian control of Nevelske is hindering the encirclement of Pervomaiske, acknowledging the well-fortified Ukrainian positions in the area. Jonathan reiterates the strategic importance of Pobieda for unlocking Russian access to the road to Kostiantynivka, highlighting the fighting around Novomykolaivka, which is acting as a buffer zone for the strategically important city. Jonathan predicts a major Russian effort to take Pobieda, believing that the capture of the settlement will allow them to advance on Kostiantynivka. He illustrates the potential for a domino effect if Pobieda falls, with Novomykolaivka and Kostiantynivka under threat, followed by a northern push on Vuhledar. Jonathan highlights the topographical challenges faced by Russian forces if they attempt to attack Vuhledar from the south, emphasising the more favourable terrain for a northern attack. Jonathan predicts that Russia will aim to establish a straight frontline running south from north of Avdiivka.
- Lastochkyne: Jonathan cites reports of a repulsed Russian attack east of Lastochkyne, referencing footage of a destroyed Russian armoured column. He suggests that Ukraine is prioritising its limited stocks of domestically produced and internationally sourced ammunition in this area.
Ukrainian Ammunition Stockpiles
🎦 21:40-22:54⏩
Jonathan discusses the status of Ukrainian ammunition stockpiles, referencing Francis Farrell's assertion that some Ukrainian artillery crews have independently stockpiled ammunition for emergencies, likening it to the biblical story of storing grain during times of plenty.
Return to top⤴️
Frontline Update: Avdiivka, Mariinka and Velyka Novosilka
🎦 22:54-28:33⏩
- Avdiivka (North): Jonathan reviews the situation north of Avdiivka, referencing reports that Stepove is now a contested "grey zone" with Russian advances near Lastochkyne.
- Mariinka to Vuhledar: Jonathan provides an update on the frontline from Mariinka to Vuhledar, reporting that the Russians have made significant gains south of Novomykolaivka according to Syriac maps. Jonathan observes that Syriac Maps can sometimes be overconfident in its assessments compared to Andrew Perpetua, who relies on more stringently verified information.
- Pobieda: Jonathan highlights a recent update from No Reports that suggests Russia has restarted offensive operations towards Pobieda and reached the outskirts, despite Ukrainian reinforcements being sent to bolster defences. He reiterates his view that Pobieda is a key settlement for both sides.
- Further South: Jonathan observes significant Russian gains south of Novomykolaivka, referencing Syriac Maps, before realising that the map he was looking at is actually an updated one he received whilst recording and hadn't yet reviewed. The updated map from Syriac Maps reveals that Russia has captured Pobieda and advanced south of the H-15 highway, after 9 days of fighting. Jonathan expresses concern about this development, describing it as a "real worry" and "not good news."
- Syriac Maps: Jonathan references an update from Syriac Maps at 10:37 the previous day stating that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from Pobieda, retreating to the western and southern forest belts. The update suggests that the road to Kostiantynivka is now open from the north, providing Russian forces with high ground that dominates the approaches to Kostiantynivka, Paraskovivka, and Novomykolaivka. Jonathan shares his concern that a Russian advance from the north will likely trigger a Ukrainian withdrawal from the latter two settlements.
- Velyka Novosilka: Jonathan reports on Russian gains around Novodonetske (east of Velyka Novosilka), citing Syriac Maps, and acknowledges that he may have missed this on his own map due to it being late when he was working.
Frontline Update: Shevchenko (near Vuhledar)
🎦 28:33-30:42⏩
Jonathan notes Russian advances north of Shevchenko, where they have captured a series of Ukrainian positions, before realising that this information is not new and is reflected in Andrew Perpetua's map. He reports on a destroyed Russian mechanised column in Shevchenko, citing a video shared by No Reports of the incident, suggesting that initial reports of Russian advances in the area (Syriac Maps) may be premature and based on the presence of Russian equipment that was subsequently destroyed. Jonathan emphasises that Russian advances often come at significant cost.
Return to top⤴️
Frontline Update: Robotyne
🎦 30:42-33:17⏩
Jonathan observes Russian gains west of Robotyne, near Verbove, and reviews the map from February 18th, highlighting the significant pressure on Ukrainian forces in this area. He references Rebar (no further information provided), who has previously described the Russian advances in this area. Jonathan expresses surprise that Ukraine is still contesting this area, given his view that it lacks strategic value. He notes a rare Ukrainian counter-attack north of Novoprokopivka, citing Syriac Maps, who report that Ukrainian forces have recaptured the southern trench line of Robotyne, forcing the Russians back to their previous positions. Jonathan describes the area as a key one that has changed hands numerous times in recent months.
Return to top⤴️
Frontline Update: Robotyne to Dnipro River (Kherson Oblast)
🎦 33:17-39:10⏩
- Robotyne: Jonathan predicts that the Ukrainian hold on the eastern part of Robotyne is nearing its end, observing that the Russians have pushed the Ukrainians back to the first line of defence (tank ditch and dragon's teeth).
- Kinburn Spit: Jonathan provides an update on the Kinburn Spit in Kherson Oblast. He references Shoigu's claims that Russia has captured both Avdiivka and the Kinburn Spit. Whilst acknowledging that Avdiivka has fallen, he casts doubt on the assertion that Kinburn has been captured, noting that both Ukrainian and Russian sources have denied it. Jonathan suggests that the three Ukrainian Naval Infantry brigades have likely redeployed from Kinburn to Avdiivka. Jonathan acknowledges that the situation is fluid, and refers to reports of a recent expansion of the Ukrainian bridgehead before conceding that this information could be outdated. He notes that there is a delay of 2-3 days with some reports, which can make it difficult to establish a clear chronological order of events. Turning to Syriac Maps, Jonathan observes that the Russians are applying pressure on the Ukrainian bridgehead, and reads a recent update reporting that Ukraine has decided to withdraw forces from the Kinburn Spit bridgehead and redeploy them to Zaporizhzhia, following increased Russian offensive action near Robotyne.
- Syriac Maps: Jonathan strongly disagrees with Syriac Maps' assessment that the Kinburn operation has been a strategic disaster for Ukraine, particularly the assertion that their only success has been to divert Russian resources. He concedes that a rapid Ukrainian advance to link up with forces pushing south from Robotyne would have been a success but questions whether this was ever a realistic objective, given the challenges of moving equipment across the Dnipro River. Jonathan compares the Kinburn operation to the wider Ukrainian counteroffensive, suggesting that the initial objectives were overambitious. He believes that the Ukrainian's objective shifted to inflicting maximum casualties, which they have successfully achieved. Jonathan reiterates his view that the Ukrainian forces on Kinburn Spit successfully acted as bait, drawing in Russian troops and equipment, which were then targeted by Ukrainian artillery and drones, resulting in significant Russian losses.
Wrap Up
🎦 39:10-39:49⏩
Jonathan concludes by saying that it is likely the Ukrainians will withdraw from Kinburn Spit imminently and expressing his hope that the update was useful despite the volume of information. He thanks viewers for their support and reminds them of his upcoming live stream with Germinator Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
