Trolliday, Anti-Ship Missiles, RU Corruption, & Surovikin
Table of Contents 📖
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"I just don't understand why I have to die for some Tsar who got bored at the age of 70. Or maybe he got schizophrenic and decided to feel the Tamerlane to conquer something, to feel like Tamerlane and to conquer something."
Hello Team!
Jonathan starts with an unsubstantiated rumour that General Surovikin has been arrested for knowing about Prigozhin's mutiny ahead of time. If true, this would be significant as Surovikin is one of the few competent military figures in Russia's command structure. However, this information should be taken with a pinch of salt for now.
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Kramatorsk Attack
Two Dutch people providing humanitarian aid in Kramatorsk were injured when Russian rockets hit the city centre, killing at least 8 people including 3 children. The Dutch men run a chip cart providing free fries to Ukrainians. Despite the attack damaging one of their vehicles, they remain determined to continue their charitable work once repairs are made.
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Mines and the Counteroffensive
- Extensive Russian mining poses a formidable challenge for Ukraine's counteroffensive, even with more anti-mine resources. Clearing thousands of square kilometres is a complex, protracted task.
- Bombarding mined areas to create safe passages would require ammunition and resources Ukraine lacks. Mine ploughs are vulnerable to ATGMs and artillery.
- Mine clearing line charges have limited effect. Constant drone presence makes approaching with mine-clearing vehicles difficult. Immense coordination is needed between units.
- Residual mines have a choking effect, hampering swift movements even after clearing.
- A video shows a "textbook assault" with line charges and infantry fighting vehicles suppressing a Russian trench line. However, this is just one position - Ukraine faces this challenge across the entire front.
Brigades Used in Counteroffensive
Reports suggest Ukraine has committed 3-6 brigades so far out of an estimated 35 total, indicating the main counteroffensive push is yet to come. Time is being bought for more artillery and long-range strikes to degrade Russian forces. A breakdown of Ukraine's remaining brigades is provided.
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Anti-Ship Missiles
- UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says the Storm Shadow missiles provided to Ukraine have been a "game changer" with unrivalled accuracy, in contrast to Russian strikes on civilian targets.
- Ukraine is negotiating with Poland to acquire the NSM coastal defence system with anti-ship missiles that have a 250km+ range. This would push the Russian Black Sea fleet back to Novorossiysk and act as a deterrent.
Corruption in the Russian Military
Two threads by Chris Oowiki highlight the endemic corruption rotting the Russian army from within:
- A retired major describes how reducing conscription to 1 year decimated experience, with unsuitable people becoming senior officers through bribes. Readiness is routinely faked, equipment is outdated, and money for maintenance is stolen. "Dead souls" - fictitious soldiers - are used to embezzle funds.
- The deputy defence minister has been questioned over a $500M corruption scandal in the construction of Russia's National Defence Control Centre. The project had huge cost overruns as the MOD paid inflated prices to contractors. The minister's family owns $50M+ in property despite no recorded income.
Wrap up
Jonathan notes a distinct lack of trolls on his and other Ukraine war coverage channels in recent days. He suggests this is evidence they are paid Russian disinformation agents, possibly impacted by the shutdown of Prigozhin's troll farm. He warns that such troll farms also interfere in domestic politics of foreign nations, manipulating narratives and sowing discord. Combatting this information warfare will be a key challenge going forward.
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