Ukraine War Live Update: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"This is the kind of stuff that...adversaries are going to be looking and going, right, what can we learn from this? How do the Chinese be looking at going, right, get on to that, guys. Let's do that."
Hello Team
🎦 00:01-02:47⏩
Jonathan begins by welcoming viewers. He explains that Stephen Bendel (who is in Kyiv) is unfortunately unable to join the livestream due to technical issues. He goes on to mention that he has just finished recording his Hits and Losses video, after a morning spent helping his parents (his father has recently been diagnosed with dementia). Jonathan excitedly announces that a fellow Youtube creator (Benny Pye) has introduced him to a new browser add-on which allows him to copy and paste entire lists of links, automatically converting them to browser tabs! This will save him lots of time curating content. He highlights that the weather is beginning to change (it's now autumn) which will likely affect activity on the front lines and impact losses incurred by both sides. He is sometimes guilty of forgetting to factor the weather into his analysis and invites viewers to remind him if he does. Jonathan moves on to discuss a new innovation, a drone with a rotating drum system designed to drop multiple bombs which he describes as really clever. He believes that the Russia-Ukraine war is driving significant innovation in warfare and suggests that adversaries such as China will be studying this carefully.
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Military Aid Updates - Canada
🎦 05:12-05:33⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has received almost $300 million in concessional financing (a loan) from Canada.
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Geopolitics - China, Iran, North Korea
🎦 05:33-06:33⏩
President Zelensky has said that China is actively helping Russia prolong the war (based on Ukrainian intelligence data). He also accused Russia of receiving support from Iran, along with arms and personnel from North Korea. Jonathan refers to this trio as the axis of evil and questions what the allies are doing about this, suggesting that this represents a crossing of red lines. He also mentions that Zelensky called Putin a f\\king terrorist in a recent interview on American TV.
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Military Equipment - Ukrainian Corvettes
🎦 06:33-08:08⏩
A new Ukrainian corvette (the _Hetman Ivan Mazepa_), built in Turkey has been put to sea for trials. This is the first of two corvettes that Turkey is building for Ukraine (which are thought to be packed with advanced technology). Jonathan is unsure how Ukraine will be able to use these powerful ships, given that they would be highly vulnerable to Russian attack if they ventured beyond Turkish territorial waters. He speculates that Russia would target them with hypersonic Kinzhal missiles if they were ever moored in Ukraine. He asks viewers to share their thoughts on how these ships could be effectively utilized. Some viewers suggest that the corvettes will only be used after the war has ended. Jonathan agrees that it is a shame that these ships cannot be utilized during the war and ponders if they will remain in Turkish waters until hostilities cease. He reminds viewers that if the ships were to leave the Black Sea they would not be able to return, due to the restrictions imposed by the Montreux Convention.
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Military Aid Updates - USA
🎦 08:26-15:21⏩
Jonathan announces that the USA has unveiled a new $425 million military aid package for Ukraine which will include air defense systems, munitions, armored vehicles and other essential equipment. He describes this as big news and a larger package than the USA has provided in recent months. He shares more details about what the package will include, taken from a readout of a telephone call between President Biden and President Zelensky:
- Hundreds of air defense interceptors (likely for NASAMS)
- Dozens of tactical air defense systems
- Additional artillery systems
- Significant quantities of ammunition
- Hundreds of Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs) and Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs)
- Thousands of additional armored vehicles
Jonathan reveals that this includes 2000 Humvees and a Patriot air defense battery. He wonders if some of the Humvees could be adapted to create Avengers (Humvees with Stinger anti-aircraft missile systems). He believes that this would be really useful as it would allow Ukraine to better protect its troops from Russian air attacks. The package will also include:
- Spare parts for HIMARS
- HIMARS munitions
- Javelin anti-tank guided missiles
- Small arms
- Grenades
- Thermals
- Training equipment
- Demolition equipment
- Air-to-ground munitions
- Artillery ammunition
Jonathan notes that there is no mention of any APCs or IFVs in this specific announcement, even though the earlier statement mentioned that hundreds would be provided.
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Geopolitics - Germany
🎦 15:21-18:45⏩
Friedrich Merz, leader of the German Opposition (Christian Democratic Union) has called for Germany to issue a 24 hour ultimatum to Russia to halt the bombing of civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. He has suggested that if Russia ignores this ultimatum, Germany should supply Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles. Jonathan approves of this stronger rhetoric from Merz and believes that the Taurus missiles are a really sensible idea. He prefers to see the allies setting red lines for Russia, rather than the other way around. He believes that Merz is using this rhetoric as a way of attracting voters from the center ground, who strongly support Ukraine. Jonathan goes on to report that the November Ramstein meeting (which will include defense ministers and other leaders from allied nations) will be held virtually. He had mistakenly thought that this meeting was restricted to the big five (USA, UK, France, Germany and Italy) but clarifies that many other countries will be represented.
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Military Aid/Geopolitics - Lithuania
🎦 18:45-19:49⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine will build a factory in Lithuania to produce RDX explosives, which can be used to manufacture a range of munitions. He describes this as fascinating as he has been hearing a lot about foreign investment into Ukraine but not so much about Ukrainian investment overseas. Lithuania has also announced a new €3.5bn ($4bn) military aid package for Ukraine. Jonathan praises Lithuania's Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis as a brilliant proponent of support for Ukraine and notes that he is fully behind Zelensky's peace plan. He is astonished by the size of this aid package, which he suspects will be spread over a longer period, rather than being provided immediately.
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Jonathan's musings - US elections and support for Ukraine
🎦 19:49-22:19⏩
Jonathan reflects on the challenges that Ukraine is facing at the moment, with a lack of progress on the eastern and southern front lines, coupled with reduced levels of support from the USA. He believes that the US elections are the main reason for this, with the Democrats reluctant to do anything (such as lifting restrictions on longer range weapons) that might risk them losing the election. He suspects that the Russians would have made the most of any lifting of restrictions by the USA, flooding the information space with disinformation (which would have played into Trump's hands). He understands the reasoning behind this reluctance to act, describing it as the reality of politics, but believes that this is harming Ukraine. He admits that he is struggling to remain positive due to this situation, describing his mood as up and down like a yo-yo. He contrasts the slow response of the UK to the needs of Ukraine with the much more positive reaction from the EU (which he describes as being like turning a tanker). He shares a tweet from the UK Ministry of Defence, which states that the UK must do all we can to strengthen Ukraine, and interprets this as reflecting the political will of the government. He welcomes this unambiguous statement, which he believes demonstrates strong support for Ukraine at a time when many are losing their nerve and promoting appeasement.
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Military Aid Updates - F-16 training delays
🎦 22:19-28:40⏩
Jonathan reveals that Ukraine is unlikely to receive a full squadron of F-16s until Spring or Summer of 2025. He reports that the USA has switched its focus from training experienced Ukrainian pilots to training younger Ukrainian cadets, which will delay the deployment of the aircraft. He disputes the claim by some that this is a deliberate delay or that the USA has abandoned Ukraine. He cites Justin Bronk (an air power expert from the Royal United Services Institute) who has stated that it is harder to train experienced pilots (who are used to Soviet era aircraft) to fly F-16s. It is easier to train younger pilots (with no prior experience) as they do not need to unlearn old habits. He criticizes those who are quick to condemn the USA, arguing that it is highly unlikely that they are deliberately trying to sabotage Ukraine. He believes that a more likely explanation is that it makes more strategic sense to train younger pilots from scratch to fly NATO equipment and to retain the more experienced pilots on their familiar legacy aircraft.
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Military Equipment - Russia using captured Magura V5 drones
🎦 28:40-29:48⏩
Jonathan highlights a video shared by Samuel Bendett (from the Center for Naval Analyses) which shows the Russian Black Sea fleet launching drones from ships as part of anti-drone training exercises. He believes that the drone shown in the video is a captured Ukrainian Magura V5 (a number of which have been discovered washed up on the Crimean coast).
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Geopolitics - Arson attacks at DHL warehouses
🎦 35:27-40:57⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia is suspected of being behind two arson attacks at DHL warehouses in the UK and Germany in July. The fires were started by packages which were destined for airplanes and could have resulted in the planes being destroyed. He believes that this represents a crossing of red lines and an act of war, comparing this attempted attack to attempted murder. He argues that if it can be proven that Russia was responsible for these acts, allied nations should treat this with the utmost seriousness, suggesting that the failure to do so would be a system failure and would show weakness. He believes that the allies are already engaged in an information war, a cyber war, a political war, an economic war and a conventional war with Russia (via their support for Ukraine). He suggests that since Ukraine is doing the fighting for us, we should provide them with whatever they need to win. A viewer (Ozzy Bugger) asks what Russia would have to gain by carrying out such an attack. They suggest that this might be a psyops operation designed to provoke a reaction from the West or perhaps a false flag attack by Ukrainians with the same aim. Jonathan agrees that this is a good point and something that needs to be considered, whilst acknowledging that there is evidence to suggest that Russian interference activities are escalating. Another viewer (Kevin) reveals that a White House intelligence assessment placed the risk of Russia using a tactical nuclear weapon at 50% at the start of the war. Jonathan suggests that this explains the cautious approach adopted by Jake Sullivan (US National Security Advisor) - getting it wrong could trigger a nuclear war!
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Geopolitics - Zelensky's Victory Plan
🎦 32:52-35:27⏩, 41:03-54:16⏩, 54:54-58:44⏩
Jonathan explains that President Zelensky has outlined a Victory Plan to politicians in Brussels. This plan consists of 5 points, with 3 additional secret annexes. The 5 points are:
- Unconditional NATO invitation: This has been rejected by a number of NATO officials and politicians, who claim that it is too soon for Ukraine to join. Some countries, such as Sweden, support the idea, but not immediately. Jonathan argues that it should be possible for NATO to create a special conditional membership for Ukraine, with full membership being granted at a later stage. He accuses those who oppose this of being resistant to change.
- Defense strengthening: Ukraine wants new weapons (including longer range weapons), real-time satellite data and intelligence to help strengthen its defenses. Jonathan supports this and is unimpressed by the suggestion from some that this is unrealistic or demanding too much.
- Deterrence: A secret non-nuclear strategic deterrence package that has been shared with the USA, UK, France, Italy and Germany. This is believed to involve placing significant conventional military assets in Ukraine, which would deter any further Russian aggression. Zelensky believes that this is the best way of persuading Russia to participate in negotiations.
- Strategic economic potential: Joint protection of Ukraine's natural resources (including uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite and other critical metals) and joint investment in their development. Zelensky believes that this could be a powerful sweetener for allies, who would benefit from access to these resources (rather than relying on China).
- European security post-war: Stationing of experienced Ukrainian troops in Europe, as a deterrent against any future aggression.
The Victory Plan hinges on a significant increase in Western support and Zelensky has stressed that this needs to be provided immediately if the war is to end by 2025. There has been a mixed reaction to Zelensky's plan. Christopher Miller (from the Financial Times) describes it as a wishlist and reveals that Western partners have been unimpressed with it, with even Ukrainian MPs, troops and members of civil society expressing disappointment. Jonathan is angry about this response, describing it as negative and arguing that it is bloody obvious that Ukraine needs immediate Western help. He suggests that those who are criticizing the plan should instead come up with an alternative that allows Ukraine to win without further support. He reminds viewers that tens of thousands of people are dying over there. Zelensky has stressed that the success of the plan is dependent on the political will of Ukraine's partners. He has said that he does not want to freeze the war or cede any Ukrainian territory. However, he has also indicated that the plan could be implemented in stages and that he is open to compromise, particularly on the question of NATO membership. Mark Rutte (the Dutch Prime Minister) has also stated that he cannot support Zelensky's whole Victory Plan (specifically immediate NATO membership) but insists that NATO will meet its €40 billion military aid target for Ukraine. Jonathan believes that Ukraine should receive a conditional invitation to join NATO now, with full membership being granted once the war is over. He is scathing about those who reject this out of hand, describing them as dimwits.
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Geopolitics - Russia/Slovakia
🎦 42:57-43:41⏩
Jonathan shares the news that Robert Fico (Slovakia's pro-Russian Prime Minister) is planning to travel to Moscow. Fico is a vocal supporter of restoring relations with Russia and has even denied the Bucha massacre. Jonathan is disgusted by this stance, describing it as Russian propaganda.
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Geopolitics - Sweden
🎦 45:39-46:09⏩
Sweden has stated that they support Ukraine's Victory Plan (including NATO membership) but do not believe that the timing is right for Ukraine to join NATO immediately. Jonathan argues that there are ways in which this could be achieved now, via a form of partial membership.
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Geopolitics - Jordan Peterson and Justin Trudeau
🎦 58:44-01:03:14⏩
Jonathan describes Jordan Peterson as an anti-Ukraine Russian shill, revealing that he recently attended a pro-Russian rally in Washington, DC. He believes that Jordan Peterson is a gateway drug to the alt-right, noting that many of his supporters go on to adopt more extreme right wing views. He goes on to share the news that Justin Trudeau (the Canadian Prime Minister) has accused Russia of attempting to exploit political divisions within Canada and has amplified the chaos surrounding the 2022 Freedom Convoy (an anti-vaccine protest organized by right-wing populists). Trudeau has also alleged that Dr Jordan Peterson and Tucker Carlson (a right-wing American TV host) have received funding from RT (a Russian state-owned broadcaster), as part of a Russian influence operation designed to destabilize democracies. Jonathan is not surprised by this allegation and believes that both Peterson and Carlson should be investigated. He is convinced that Carlson has strong links with Russia, highlighting the fact that Carlson's father is chair of a lobbying firm, whose main client is Viktor Orban (the Hungarian Prime Minister).
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Geopolitics - Elon Musk and Russian disinformation
🎦 01:04:08-01:11:46⏩
Jonathan reflects on the advantages and disadvantages of Twitter (which is one of his main sources of news). He is grateful for the way in which the platform allows him to access a diverse range of information but is also aware of the many problems associated with the platform. He is particularly concerned about the high levels of Russian disinformation and the prevalence of bots and trolls. Elon Musk promised to address these problems when he purchased Twitter, but the situation has worsened. Jonathan believes that Musk is making deliberate changes that will make it easier for disinformation to spread, such as the decision to remove the Block function. He suspects that this may be because Musk is trying to protect himself from being blocked by others. Andrew Perpetua (a pro-Ukrainian OSINT analyst) has suggested that the removal of the block function is a cost-saving exercise, which is being implemented to address the increased computational demands placed on the platform by the increasing number of bot accounts. Jonathan believes that even if this is the case, the main beneficiaries of this change will be bots and trolls. He ends this section with a warning to viewers that Elon Musk is a grade A toolbag who is bad for humanity.
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ATP Distilled
🎦 01:12:17-01:16:34⏩
Jonathan plugs his new website ATP Distilled (atpgeo.com) which includes AI-generated summaries of all of his videos. He is incredibly impressed with the quality of the summaries, revealing that it is even able to detect nuances in his voice, such as when he is trying to be humorous (which he demonstrates by sharing some extracts from the site). He explains that Benny Pye has trained the AI using 170 lines of code to ensure that it reflects his style accurately and that it uses correct Ukrainian spellings. He encourages viewers to check out the website if they don't have time to watch his videos. The website also includes summaries of reports from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Jonathan demonstrates the new search function which allows viewers to find all instances of a specific term, such as muppet, Viktor Orban or Marjorie Taylor Green.
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What does winning look like for Ukraine?
🎦 01:17:06-01:27:37⏩
A viewer (Davinki) asks if liberating all of occupied Ukrainian territory would be the same as Russia losing the war, speculating that the Kremlin would not accept this. Jonathan agrees that this is a really important point and reflects on the difficulty of achieving a negotiated settlement that is acceptable to both sides. Russia will insist on a clear win, whereas Ukraine will demand the return of all of its territory. He questions if Russia would ever accept the return of all occupied territory, suggesting that this might only happen if the Russian army collapses or if the regime is toppled. He acknowledges that a Russian military collapse could trigger a nuclear response. Jonathan points out that the situation is more complex for Ukraine, as President Zelensky will need to ensure that any negotiated settlement is acceptable to the Ukrainian people. In contrast, Putin can impose whatever solution he desires on the Russian population, as he is a dictator. Jonathan believes that this makes the negotiations much more difficult for Ukraine, as any territorial concessions are likely to be highly unpopular. A viewer (Mark Biskey) suggests that Russia does not understand the meaning of negotiation, as they always insist on their terms being met. Jonathan agrees, noting that this is consistent with Putin's history, as he has never had to compromise or negotiate. Another viewer (Mikey from Cambridge) believes that the West should support Ukraine for another 12 months, which will result in the collapse of the Russian economy. Jonathan points out that dictatorships are good at masking economic problems, highlighting the fact that Russia has stopped publishing economic statistics. He agrees that the Russian economy is in trouble, but it is difficult to predict when this will become critical. He ends by reflecting on the likelihood of regime change in Russia, suggesting that a complete military defeat for Russia would make this more likely, as this would weaken Putin's position. He believes that Putin is existentially connected to the war in a way that Zelensky is not (if Ukraine loses, Zelensky can go into exile, but if Russia loses, Putin will be deposed). He wonders if the Russian population would tolerate huge casualties in this war, as they are used to living under autocracy. He concludes that the outcome of the war is highly uncertain and that it could be a long and protracted conflict.
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Wrap up
🎦 01:27:37-01:43:02⏩
Jonathan thanks JR (who has been helping him with the mapping for his videos), along with all of the viewers who have supported the channel by becoming members, offering super stickers and by interacting in the live chat. He reminds viewers to like and subscribe and encourages them to share his videos. He ends by reminding viewers about the plight of the Ukrainian children who have been abducted by Russia, thanking a viewer (Von Rees) who has highlighted this issue in their super sticker.
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