Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"Why should we attack Ukrainians and kill them, destroy cities? No one explained it and half of Ukrainians, let's say, have relatives in Russia. It's not entirely clear why we need to kill them. I think that all this is done only to preserve the power of one person, specifically Putin."
Hello Team!
Jonathan is frustrated as he had to re-record this 35 minute video due to a microphone issue. He mentions having a cup of tea.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 1,010 liquidated Russian personnel, a massive increase
- 10 tanks, 24 APVs (IFVs, APCs, MRAPs) lost which is a big loss
- 34 artillery systems/MLRS pieces lost, a huge number
- 4 anti-aircraft warfare systems taken out, more than average
- 13 drones, 26 vehicles/fuel tanks, 2 special equipment lost
- Ukrainians are hitting Russians behind the lines logistically e.g. around Bakhmut and Mariinka
Russian Attack on Ukraine
A small Russian attack on Ukraine involving 10 attack drones (Shaheeds), 4 cruise missiles and 4 reconnaissance drones was taken out by Ukrainians. Jonathan questions if this was the best use of this munition by Russia.
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Equipment Losses - Oryx Figures
- 12 Russian tanks visually confirmed lost, a significant number
- Many IFVs, artillery pieces, trucks also lost by Russia
- However, Ukraine also lost 53 pieces, close to Russia's 56 losses
- 9 Ukrainian tanks lost including a Leopard 2A4
- Various APVs, artillery, a MiG-29 fighter jet also lost by Ukraine
- Caveats: Some losses may be from previous days. More Ukrainian losses are likely not visually confirmed yet due to tight OPSEC, especially along the Zaporizhzhia front line where the counteroffensive is focused. So the real picture of losses is likely skewed towards showing more Ukrainian losses at the moment.
Ukrainian Counteroffensive
- The ISW says the Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun but won't be a single grand operation. It will consist of many undertakings of varying size and intensity over many weeks.
- The initial operations to penetrate Russian defensive positions will likely be the most difficult, slowest and see the highest Ukrainian losses.
- The Russians have built multi-layered defenses that will continually attrit Ukrainian equipment as they advance.
- Militaries have long identified the penetration phase of a mechanized offensive as the most dangerous and costly. Success or failure may not be apparent for some time.
Tactical Error by Ukrainian Forces
A Finnish fighter named Kenneth Greg who is angry about a successful Russian ambush on a Ukrainian armored column says it happened because the Ukrainians did not keep the required 50m distance between vehicles when moving to the front. At least one, maybe two Leopard tanks were lost along with other vehicles. Greg notes this distance rule applies to both vehicles and men, and is known by every soldier in Finland. It's unclear if one of the lost Leopards had mine clearance equipment and may have been one donated by Finland.
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Putting Russian Artillery Losses in Context
The Ukrainians are deliberately targeting and taking out a lot of Russian artillery, including:
- A TOS-1 thermobaric rocket launcher destroyed on the Zaporizhzhia front
- A 152mm self-propelled gun catastrophically detonating near Velyka Novosilka
- A self-propelled mortar taken out in Kamianske
This is to reduce Russia's ability to hit Ukrainian attacks with artillery as they try to punch through defensive lines.
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Ukrainian Artillery Losses
Footage shows a Ukrainian Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled gun being taken out, likely by Russian counter-battery fire, in the Bakhmut area. This is a concern as the PzH 2000 outranges Russian artillery and should be able to attack from a safe distance. A Russian war reporter also notes the Ukrainian M777 has longer range and they need better counter-battery radar and artillery to match it.
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Evacuation Attempts Shelled by Russia
The Russians have been shelling Ukrainian evacuation attempts from flooded areas caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. President Zelenskyy visited an evacuation center which was then shelled a couple hours after he left. The mayor of Oleshky says they are starting to see drowned bodies surfacing en masse, with 8 brought to the hospital so far, though the Russians only admit to 5 deaths at the moment. More casualties are sadly expected.
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Continued Attacks in Ukraine
Berdyansk has been heavily hit by the Ukrainians, with a bakery and gas station struck in the evening, causing large fires lighting up the night sky. Volnovakha near Vuhledar was also hit around 10 times. These appear to be preparatory attacks before the counteroffensive.
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Damage from Kakhovka Dam Destruction
The extent of ecological damage from the destruction of the Kakhovka dam by Russia is becoming clearer. The Black Sea coast in the Kherson region is now polluted with oil carried downstream by the flooding. An expert says only retreating forces blow up bridges and dams, so this act and the way Russia has tried to spin it as a Ukrainian action in response to a supposed Russian offensive makes it clear Russia was responsible.
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Military Aid to Ukraine
- Sweden continues to train Ukrainian troops on CV90 infantry fighting vehicles, considered one of the best IFVs in the world. Having an ongoing supply of such vehicles and trained crews will be important to replace losses from the counteroffensive.
- The US announced a new $2 billion long-term military aid package for Ukraine, including the purchase of Hawk air defense systems, PAC-3 and GEM-T Patriot missiles. Having a mix of Patriot missiles allows flexibility for different applications.
- The UK has expanded sanctions on Belarus, blocking imports of wood, gold, cement and rubber as well as exports of machinery and banknotes. Loopholes allowing sanctions to be circumvented are also being closed.
Geopolitics - US Politics and Impact on Ukraine
Jonathan discusses the charges against former President Trump for mishandling classified documents and obstruction of justice. While Trump leads the polls for the Republican nomination in 2024, these cases may prevent him from being able to run. The key question is what a change of administration in 2024 could mean for Ukraine:
- Biden is running again for the Democrats but his age is a concern. A different Democratic nominee like RFK Jr. would likely be worse for Ukraine.
- If Trump can't run, other potential Republican nominees like DeSantis or Pence are more of an unknown in their Ukraine stance, though DeSantis seems to have moderated his position recently.
- Jonathan's view is that Ukraine would be better off with the Democrats retaining the White House, as the GOP would face pressure to make concessions to the party's isolationist wing, even if there is currently bipartisan Congressional support for Ukraine. However, domestic issues will likely be the main deciding factor for US voters.
Potential Security Guarantees for Ukraine
Politico reports the leaders of Poland, Germany and France will meet in Paris on June 12 to discuss providing "security guarantees" to Ukraine. This is significant as it goes beyond the "security assurances" of the Budapest Memorandum that only promised support if Ukraine was threatened. Security guarantees would be more akin to NATO's Article 5 that requires direct military assistance if a member is attacked. However, this would likely only apply after the war, not put those countries' troops on the ground in Ukraine immediately.
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Wrap Up
Jonathan has to rush to prepare his next frontline update video before a live stream chat. He thanks viewers for their support and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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