Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"If you're a Russian that's on the breadline and someone says, here's $1,000 to go and set fire to that train, and there's no CCTV and basically you're going to get away with it, you probably think that there will be a lot of Russians that would be pretty willing to do that."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:04⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the channel and explains that the video is a little later than usual because he had a bad night's sleep. He notes that Ukrainians have adopted the Western tradition of celebrating Christmas on December 25th, as part of a general move to distance themselves from Russian influence.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Figures
🎦 01:04-03:25⏩
Jonathan discusses the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day (18/12/2023). The figures, which do not include Ukrainian casualties, are as follows:
- 1140 military personnel
- 15 tanks
- 19 armoured fighting vehicles
- 15 artillery systems
- 1 air defence system
- 20 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 2 pieces of special equipment
Jonathan notes that these figures are very high and are likely to be a result of a number of factors, including increased Ukrainian attacks around Kreminna and more favourable weather conditions for Ukrainian drone strikes. He adds that the losses for vehicles and fuel tanks are particularly heavy, citing a recent video showing a large number of Russian vehicles destroyed by FPV drones.
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Andrew Perpetua's Equipment Losses
🎦 03:25-08:11⏩
Jonathan examines the latest equipment loss data compiled by defence analyst, Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua on Twitter). Perpetua's data shows that the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian equipment losses is around 2:1. Jonathan highlights the following points:
- Almost all Ukrainian equipment losses were destroyed by drones (including FPVs, Lancet loitering munitions and drone-dropped bombs)
- This suggests that, despite the high personnel losses, Russian artillery is not being used effectively.
- Ukrainian losses include a number of older tanks, a 'high' number of CV90 infantry fighting vehicles and, unusually, a BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle.
- The presence of a destroyed BMP-1 on the list of Russian losses is also unusual and likely reflects the fact that the Russians are running low on more modern BMP-2 and BMP-3 IFVs.
- High value Russian equipment losses include three Buk air defence systems, an R-330Zh electronic warfare system, a Zoopark-1 counter-battery radar system and a TOS-1A thermobaric multiple rocket launcher.
- A T-90M, Russia's most modern tank, was also destroyed.
- A large number of civilian vehicles are included in the Russian losses, echoing the high number of civilian vehicles reported as destroyed in the Ukrainian general staff figures for the previous day.
Jonathan's Response to Critics of Ukrainian General Staff Figures
🎦 08:11-13:43⏩
Jonathan addresses pro-Kremlin trolls who have criticised his use of Ukrainian General Staff figures in previous videos, claiming that they are propaganda and full of lies. He counters these arguments with the following points:
- There is a clear disparity between what is shown in OSINT footage (which tends to confirm Ukrainian claims) and the Russian MoD figures.
- While Russian figures for aircraft and helicopter losses were overstated earlier in the war, they now appear to be more accurate.
- Claims of overstated Ukrainian figures would need to be supported by credible evidence.
- Jonathan's analysis of previous trends in general staff figures, for example, the large number of vehicle losses reported on 18/12/2023, was validated by Perpetua's data which was released the following day.
- Each item on Perpetua's list is linked to a source.
- Perpetua is consistent in his definition of what constitutes a damaged and destroyed piece of equipment.
Morozovsk Air Base Strike (17/12/2023)
🎦 13:43-15:14⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the drone strike on Morozovsk air base, deep inside Russian territory, which took place on 17/12/2023. Initial reports suggested that one SU-34 fighter bomber had been damaged in the attack but Russian sources are now claiming that two SU-34s were destroyed and a further ten were damaged. Seven Ukrainian drones were intercepted by Pantsir air defence systems but the remaining ten drones all hit their targets. Jonathan reiterates his earlier assessment that, if the Ukrainians are now able to launch regular attacks against Russian air bases, this could be a game changer.
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Montage of Russian Vehicles Destroyed by Drones in Bakhmut
🎦 15:41-16:18⏩
Jonathan references a montage showing numerous Russian vehicles and other equipment destroyed by Ukrainian drones in the Bakhmut area. Although he is unable to show the video due to the risk of demonetisation, he describes it as 'total extermination'. He comments that the footage demonstrates how effective FPV drones are in modern warfare and how vulnerable military vehicles are to such attacks.
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Footage of Russian Equipment Destroyed by HIMARS
🎦 16:18-17:07⏩
Jonathan mentions a video showing the destruction of a Russian R-330Zh electronic warfare system by Ukrainian forces, as well as footage of the radar systems belonging to a Buk-2 and a Buk-3 being taken out by HIMARS strikes.
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Tank Battle Near Bakhmut
🎦 17:07-18:16⏩
Jonathan discusses a tank battle between a Ukrainian T-64BV and a Russian T-72B3 near Bakhmut. The footage is thought to be a few weeks old. The Russian tank is destroyed and, although the Ukrainian tank is targeted by three anti-tank guided missiles, these all miss their target. Jonathan also mentions a video by a British man who reviews a T-72 tank and highlights a number of design flaws that make it very difficult and dangerous to operate.
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Russian Drone Losses Due to Icing Conditions
🎦 18:16-19:40⏩
Russian and allied forces are reported to be losing an average of five to six DJI quadcopter drones each night due to icing conditions. According to reports, high level Russian commanders do not understand the impact of these conditions and are ordering their troops to fly drones regardless, leading to avoidable losses. Jonathan wonders whether Ukrainian drone operators are also being affected by these conditions or whether this an asymmetry that benefits the Ukrainians.
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Russian Military Blogger Calls for 'HIMARS Hunter' Units
🎦 19:40-21:15⏩
Prominent Russian military blogger, Zhizov, has called for the creation of specialist 'HIMARS Hunter' units to combat the effectiveness of Ukrainian artillery units operating on the west bank of the Dnipro River. Russian forces on the east bank are very vulnerable to these attacks and, according to Zhizov, Ukrainian artillery is currently 'uncatchable'. He highlights a chronic lack of effective counter battery fire capabilities, as well as delays in gaining permission to return fire. He proposes that specialist units, equipped with high-precision MLRS, Lancet loitering munitions and appropriate air support, are needed to quickly identify and neutralise Ukrainian artillery positions. However, he acknowledges that this will be very difficult to achieve.
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Increase in Partisan Activity in Occupied Ukraine
🎦 21:15-22:47⏩
Jonathan reports that sabotage and resistance attacks are now taking place almost daily in Russian-occupied Ukraine. He cites a number of recent incidents:
- A car bomb attack on collaborator, Pavlo Mischchenko, in Melitopol, which he survived.
- A bombing of a disused school in Melitopol, which is being used as a police station. A police officer from Krasnodar was injured in the attack.
- A train was set on fire at a railway station in Krasnoyarsk.
Jonathan notes that it emerged recently that Ukrainian intelligence is offering money to Russians prepared to carry out sabotage attacks. He speculates that, given the dire economic situation in Russia, many Russians would be easily persuaded to carry out such attacks.
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Overnight Missile and Drone Attacks
🎦 22:47-25:10⏩
It was a quiet night for missile and drone attacks. One missile was shot down in the Dnipropetrovsk region and two Shahed drones were intercepted. Jonathan is puzzled as to why the Russians didn't launch more drones, particularly given that they are relatively cheap to manufacture and are very effective at exhausting Ukrainian air defences. He concludes that, if the Russians had large stockpiles of drones, they would be using them on a nightly basis, suggesting that they are using them at the same rate that Iran is supplying them.
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Estimated Russian Missile Stocks (18/12/2023)
🎦 25:10-27:05⏩
Based on Ukrainian reporting, the Russians are estimated to have the following missile stocks:
- 550 Kalibr, Kh-101, Kh-55 cruise missiles
- 198 Iskander-K cruise missiles
- 87 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles
Jonathan notes that, although this might seem like a lot, the Russians would need a far greater stockpile of missiles if they were to engage in a war with a NATO country or even Poland. He also questions how many of the remaining missiles they are prepared to use in Ukraine, bearing in mind the need to maintain a sufficient strategic reserve. He speculates that, like the Shahed drones, the Russians are using their missile stocks at the same rate that they are being produced, suggesting that they don't have large stockpiles.
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Ukrainian River Gunboats Used as Mobile Air Defence Systems
🎦 27:05-28:06⏩
Jonathan discusses an article by German media outlet, Deutsche Welle, which highlights the role of Ukrainian gunboats in intercepting missiles and drones. According to the article, the boats are particularly effective at shooting down Russian missiles and drones which are often flown along riverbeds in an attempt to avoid Ukrainian radar systems.
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Russians Increasingly Using Inaccurate FAB-1500s
🎦 28:06-29:12⏩
Jonathan cites a report by a Russian Telegram channel which claims that Russian forces are dropping an average of 100 FAB-1500 unguided bombs each day in the Kherson area, particularly near the Dnipro River. However, he is sceptical of these figures, noting that there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the FAB-1500s are highly inaccurate and often land in open fields or, in some cases, on Russian positions.
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Explosions Heard in Bryansk
🎦 29:12-30:15⏩
Three explosions were heard in the Russian city of Bryansk, around 100km from the Ukrainian border, prompting the authorities to introduce a 'carpet plan', closing airports and bringing other activities to a halt. While the Russian authorities claimed that all of the UAVs involved in the incident had been destroyed, Jonathan is sceptical, noting that such denials are often followed by reports of significant damage. He speculates that the 'carpet plan' was implemented in response to a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks.
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New York Times Article Reporting on Demoralised Ukrainian Troops
🎦 30:15-37:58⏩
Jonathan discusses a recent New York Times (NYT) article which portrays Ukrainian operations to establish a bridgehead on the east bank of the Dnipro as a 'suicide mission'. The article has drawn considerable criticism from many Ukrainians, including Robert Madyar, commander of the well-respected 'Magyar's Birds' drone unit. Jonathan reads a transcript of a video released by Madyar in response to the article, in which he criticises the NYT journalists for attempting to sensationalise a very complex situation and undermining public support for the Ukrainian war effort. He suspects that the article may be an attempt to discourage Western countries from supplying weapons to Ukraine. He accuses the journalists of ignoring significant Russian losses, including the losses sustained by the Russian 104th Airborne Division and the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade and the death of Russian General Zvadsky. Madyar is also highly critical of Western countries, who he accuses of not doing enough to help Ukraine. He singles out Hungary for blocking aid, Austria for blocking sanctions, Poland for closing its border with Ukraine and the US for delaying weapons shipments ahead of the 2024 Presidential elections. In an apparent reference to the threat posed by Russia, he warns his international audience that 'the flight time for crap...is only a few minutes from you'.
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Confidence in Zelensky Decreases
🎦 37:58-41:15⏩
Jonathan reports that, according to recent opinion polls, confidence in Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, has dropped from 84% to 62% in the past 12 months. Trust in the Ukrainian government has also dropped from 52% to just 26%. However, confidence in the Ukrainian armed forces remains high at 96%. Commenting on the Zelensky figures, journalist, Illia Ponomarenko, suggests that they should not come as a surprise, given that Zelensky's approval ratings were always likely to fall from the highs of December 2022, when Ukraine was enjoying a series of military successes (e.g. liberation of Kherson) and Russian attempts to freeze the country into submission had failed. In contrast, 2023 had seen a number of setbacks, including the failure to make significant territorial gains during the summer offensive and the economic hardship caused by the war. He also suggests that Zelensky's popularity may also have been affected by his handling of the military mobilisation and a number of unspecified 'mistakes' he has made in the public domain.
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General Valery Zaluzhnyi Remains Popular
🎦 41:15-42:25⏩
In contrast to President Zelensky, General Valery Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, remains a popular figure, with 88% of Ukrainians saying that they trust him. Ponomarenko argues that, as a career soldier, Zaluzhnyi has not been tainted by the political controversies that have dogged Zelensky. He also points out that, as the figurehead of a military that has 'done the impossible', it is unsurprising that he remains a popular figure.
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Ukraine is Not Russia - a Democracy at War
🎦 42:25-43:47⏩
Jonathan continues his reading of Illia Ponomarenko's response to the recent opinion polls. Ponomarenko disputes the suggestion that the drop in Zelensky's popularity is a sign that the country is on the verge of collapse. He points out that Ukraine is a democracy, not a dictatorship like Russia and that the ability to openly debate and criticise the country's leaders, even during a time of war, is a sign of the country's underlying strength. He also notes that the Ukrainian parliament and government have traditionally had low approval ratings and that this is nothing new.
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Ukraine Forced to Scale Down Operations Due to Foreign Aid Shortages
🎦 43:47-42:32⏩
Jonathan discusses a recent article in the Kyiv Independent which reports that the Ukrainian military has been forced to scale back some military operations due to shortages of artillery shells. This follows a statement from Ukrainian General Oleksandr Tarnavsky who admitted that the Ukrainians are facing shortages. Jonathan acknowledges that he has received some criticism from pro-Ukrainian viewers for highlighting this issue, but defends his decision to report on it, arguing that it is his duty to report on events in an objective manner.
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Russian Veterans Committing Crimes
🎦 42:32-43:00⏩
Jonathan reports that, according to Russian media reports, Russian prisoners who have returned from the front line in Ukraine have committed at least 27 murders.
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New Procurement Agency to Tackle Corruption
🎦 43:00-43:47⏩
Ukrainian Defence Minister, Rustem Umerov has announced the creation of a new defence procurement agency as part of an ongoing drive to tackle corruption in Ukraine. The move is designed to improve transparency in the procurement process and address concerns that led to the resignation of former Defence Minister, Oleksii Reznikov, earlier in the year. Jonathan notes that the new measures are in line with anti-corruption legislation, as well as Ukraine's desire to join the EU and NATO.
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Russian GRU Officer Flees to Netherlands
🎦 43:47-44:41⏩
Jonathan reports that a high ranking Russian GRU officer has fled to the Netherlands, where he is seeking asylum. He is willing to testify at the International Criminal Court (ICC) about Russian war crimes in Ukraine. According to reports, the officer, Igor Salikov, claims that he was ordered to execute five Ukrainian civilians in Bucha but instead chose to release them before fleeing Russia. He also alleges that Russian war crimes were sanctioned at the highest level.
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Food Shortages in Russia
🎦 44:41-45:05⏩
Jonathan reports on further evidence that the Russian economy is being affected by the war. Russian media outlets have shown huge queues for cheap fish in the city of Voronezh, as well as long queues for eggs in Krasnoyarsk.
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Wrap Up
🎦 45:05-45:11⏩
Jonathan apologises for the length of the video but notes that there was a lot to talk about.
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