Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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"We have to deliver swiftly and fully on our promised commitments."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides his usual update on the Ukraine war for March 16th, 2023. He starts by reviewing the latest figures released by Ukraine on Russian losses, which show 1,040 Russian personnel killed in the last day, along with significant equipment losses including 12 tanks. All the usual caveats about accuracy apply.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses and Casualties
The UK estimates that Russia has suffered between 20,000-30,000 casualties in Bakhmut since May. There is evidence to support high Russian losses, including the discovery of another Wagner cemetery, this time in Kursk, Russia. The UK military believes one factor in Russia's heavy losses in Vuhledar has been Ukraine's successful use of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) systems, which can scatter mines up to 17km behind enemy lines, causing havoc as Russian vehicles attempt to withdraw.
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Bakhmut Update
The situation in Bakhmut remains difficult, with the Russians slowly closing in on the city. However, the Ukrainian channel "Bakhmut Demon", with links to the city's defenders, believes a full encirclement is unlikely and that even the Russians don't believe they can take Bakhmut. The UK believes Russia may feel compelled to throw in all its remaining reserves for a final assault before the anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive.
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US Drone Incident
Debate continues over the US response to the downing of their drone by Russian jets over the Black Sea. Some argue the US is showing weakness by trying to downplay the incident, while others believe it is the appropriate response to avoid escalation. The Russians have reportedly reached the drone crash site.
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Attacks on Russia and Crimea
Belgorod has been hit by Ukrainian missiles for several consecutive nights, raising questions about whether this is an effective use of Ukraine's limited missile stocks. In Crimea, a fire was reported near a former iron ore plant. In the Russian-occupied city of Berdyansk, a guest house belonging to a businesswoman who allegedly collaborated with the Russians was burned down, possibly by partisans.
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Military Aid to Ukraine
The US is rushing to get Ukraine the military aid it needs ahead of an anticipated spring counteroffensive. The latest Ramstein meeting, held virtually, resulted in new pledges, including 10 Leopard tanks from Sweden, air defense missiles from Canada and Norway, and 8,000 artillery shells from Canada. Spain upped its commitment to 10 Leopard tanks. Germany's Rheinmetall is repairing 50 Leopard 2s and 100 Leopard 1s, and plans to purchase more for transfer to Ukraine. Denmark announced a new $141 million aid package.
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Geopolitics
Despite providing Leopard tanks to Ukraine, Spain has increased its imports of Russian LNG by 84% since the start of the war, becoming Russia's top LNG customer so far in 2023. In Poland, a Russian spy network using hidden cameras to monitor supply routes for Ukraine was busted. Syria has recognized Russia's claimed annexation of Ukrainian territories, citing "historical facts".
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Wrap up
Jonathan notes there was a huge amount of news to cover, especially with the Ramstein meeting. He appreciates all the support from his viewers.
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