Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: AP Loss Lists Return!
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"I have personally witnessed them shooting their own troops on enough occasions that it wasn't an isolated incident"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:42⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another ATP Geopolitics video and mentions he will be doing a live stream in just over an hour with Edward Hunter-Christie to discuss geopolitics (and the potential ceasefire). He expresses his solidarity with Canada (his Canadian brothers and sisters) who are struggling with the increasing trade war with the US.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Data - Russian Losses
🎦 00:42-01:40⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff data for Russian losses for the previous day. The numbers are from the day before (11/03/2025)
- Personnel - 1,430 - an increase on the day before
- Tanks - 3
- Armoured fighting vehicles - 7
- Artillery Systems - 44 - over double the daily average
- Multiple Launch Rocket Systems - 1
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks - 69 - down significantly on previous days
- Special Equipment - 2
Jonathan notes that the number of vehicles and fuel tanks is down and that this may be an indication that the Ukrainians may have finished pulling out of Kursk.
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Kursk: Russians launch assault that is repulsed
🎦 01:40-02:56⏩
Jonathan refers to data from the Andrew Perpetua Loss list.
- There was a massive Russian assault on the Sversk front, that was crushed by the Ukrainians (30th, 54th and 81st brigades).
- The Russians lost 14 APCs (destroyed), 16 APCs damaged, 1 tank destroyed and 2 tanks damaged. Multiple other vehicles were also destroyed.
- 159 Russian personnel were eliminated.
Jonathan predicts that the Andrew Perpetua loss list data for 11/03/2025 will probably show fairly even losses or that the Ukrainians may have lost more because they withdrew from Kursk.
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Front Line Update: Quiet but Comparatively Speaking
🎦 02:56-03:51⏩
- Jonathan believes that the Ukrainian withdrawal from Kursk would have resulted in a spike in their equipment losses yesterday (11/03/2025)
- He believes that things have been fairly quiet on the front line recently (but not quiet).
- He notes that in Vuhledar the Russians are pushing but the Ukrainians have been pushing in many other places.
- Jonathan believes that the ceasefire is an interesting development given the Ukrainians have momentum and it's not really in their interests.
Kursk: Jonathan's Frustration
🎦 03:51-05:10⏩
- Jonathan states that he is annoyed about Kursk and believes that the US is connected in some way to the loss of Kursk.
- He believes that the loss of intelligence facilitated the Russian attack - the Russians used close air support, drones and a lot of personnel.
- He questions whether the Ukrainians have so much momentum that they don't want it interrupted (ceasefire).
- He states that we will never know how responsible US intelligence was for the collapse of Kursk but that the Russians have momentum there and the Ukrainians have momentum elsewhere.
- He questions whether either side actually wants a ceasefire.
Andrew Perpetua Loss List Analysis: 11/03/2025
🎦 05:10-08:30⏩
- Jonathan notes that both sides have lost a lot of equipment (referring to the AP loss list).
- There have been a lot of civilian vehicles lost which may be as a result of the withdrawal from Kursk (SUVs being used to move troops around).
- Ukrainian Losses: 1 x NTPQ-36 Radar (small radar - goes on the back of a Humvee), 1 x Engineering vehicle, 4 x Bogdanas (1 destroyed, 3 damaged), 1 x Grad (damaged - hit by 3 Lancets), 1 x T90A (captured, now damaged), 1 x Leopard 1A5 (destroyed), a couple of other tanks destroyed and damaged, 2 x Bradleys (captured), some BTRs (destroyed and damaged), some AFVs and MRAPs (all damaged), 1 x VAB (French Supplied APC - destroyed) Lots of other general vehicles and pickup trucks (civilian vehicles) - lots damaged and destroyed.
- Jonathan's Observations (Ukrainian Losses) - He is surprised by the number of Bogdanas on the list but highlights that he predicted we would start to see more on there given they are being manufactured at a high rate and will be used to replace the Panzerhaubitze 2000s, Caesars and Archers.
- Russian Losses: Some boats, some Howitzers.
- Jonathan's Observations (Russian losses and general) - The Ukrainians seem to be losing better howitzers than the Russians. The Russians are using old D-20 and D-30 howitzers as they don't have a production line for self-propelled guns. The Ukrainians are receiving self propelled guns, Caesars (from the French and Danish), Bogdanas, howitzers (from the British). The Russians are not receiving newer equipment which is why they are losing such old kit. Jonathan notes that he predicted that we would see a lot more tanks on the loss list (given the number of tanks that have been lost over the past 2 weeks). He had stated previously that he believed many of these would be Track Garden Sheds (tanks used as glorified APCs to transport troops). He points out that of the 15 tanks on the list 6 are Track Garden Sheds. A few T-62s and T-80s are also on the list. He notes that very few Infantry Fighting Vehicles on the list and believes that the Russians are using tanks for this purpose.
Andrew Perpetua Loss List Analysis: Damaged vs Destroyed
🎦 08:30-09:12⏩
Jonathan points out that when you look at the proportion of destroyed and abandoned equipment on the AP loss list, the Ukrainians have done a much better job than the Russians at destroying Russian vehicles. There are a lot more brown and black squares on the Russian side of the list (which indicate abandoned or damaged vehicles).
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Andrew Perpetua Loss List Analysis: Other Russian Losses
🎦 09:12-12:30⏩
Other Russian losses include 3 BMPs (abandoned), 4 AFVs (destroyed) 2 APCs turned into track garden sheds and the others destroyed, a couple of Tiger-Ms (Infantry Mobility Vehicles), and lots of 4 wheelers, desert cross buggies and civilian vehicles. Jonathan concludes that both sides are losing a lot of kit which indicates that both sides are attacking and that the Ukrainians are doing an operational withdrawal. Jonathan is quietly content that given the Ukrainians are doing an operational withdrawal there isn't more equipment on the list (but predicts there may be over the next few days as the Russians advance and find equipment hidden in the forests, warehouses etc)
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Ukraine: SAMP/T Shoots down SU Jet
🎦 12:30-13:29⏩
- It is reported that Ukraine has shot down a Sukhoi jet using a SAMP/T system (although it's not clear when this happened). The report came from Yuri Ihnat, Spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force. Jonathan notes that this is good news and at least confirms that the SAMP/T is performing acceptably in high intensity war. He remarks that there is conflicting evidence about how good the SAMP/T is at shooting down ballistic missiles.
Ukraine: Ukrainians Develop Drone Carrier
🎦 13:29-14:44⏩
Footage has been released showing a mothership drone carrying a number of smaller drones that take off from it. The Ukrainians have created a drone carrier that can carry up to 6 FPV drones to hit targets behind enemy lines. This mothership also acts as a repeater to extend the range of the smaller drones. Assuming the mothership has a range of 20km, this means it can fly 10-15km behind enemy lines and launch the smaller drones which can then fly another 20km themselves (giving a total range of 35km). This is exceptionally useful for taking out artillery pieces and makes air defence systems more vulnerable.
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Ukraine: Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 14:44-16:52⏩
- There has been another night of fairly intense drone activity. 133 were sent in by the Russians (98 shot down and 20 taken out by electronic warfare). 15 got through which is a much higher number than we have seen recently. Jonathan questions whether this is because Russia has less air defence munitions or whether something else has changed (e.g. Intelligence sharing). He speculates that it's possible that if even one air defence system was taken out or needed maintenance in a particular location (e.g. Odesa) that this would leave a vulnerability that the Russians could then exploit (which may explain why there have been so many attacks on Odesa).
- Three Iskander-M missiles were fired by the Russians yesterday - one was used to attack Krivy Rih.
- In Krivy Rih one person was killed and 5 injured. As rescuers arrived the Russians launched a second strike (a double-tap).
- In the past 12 hours Russia has also launched strikes on Odesa. 4 people were killed.
- Dnipro, Krivy Rih and Odesa are all seeing a lot of Russian missile and drone attention.
Krivy Rih and Odesa: Missile Strikes
🎦 16:52-18:29⏩
- Footage is shown of the aftermath of the missile attack in Krivy Rih - a residential block was hit.
- A video then shows the moment the missile hit the Druzhba hotel in Krivy Rih (various other buildings and cars were damaged). This is the second time in a week that a hotel has been hit in Krivy Rih. Jonathan highlights that Russian missiles frequently hit hotels (we have seen hotels frequented by foreign journalists and humanitarian workers hit previously).
- Jonathan then shows the after math of the missile attack in Odesa. It was initially thought that this was after a daytime missile strike but it is now believed that this was in the night and Odesa has been hit several times.
- A Barbados cargo ship was hit in the port of Odesa - it was due to transport wheat to Algeria. Four people were killed (3 Syrian, 1 Ukrainian). Jonathan remarks how terrible this is.
Russia: Update on the drone attack from two nights ago
🎦 18:29-19:51⏩
- Jonathan provides an update on the large drone attack on Russia (two nights ago).
- He was initially underwhelmed by the evidence of the effectiveness of the attack - the Russians claimed that 337 drones were shot down. There were a few explosions in Moscow but nothing of significance. An oil refinery was hit and a few other things.
- Ukrainian drones hit the Druzhba oil pipeline, after the Ukrainian military struck a measuring station in the Orel region (this pipeline exports oil from Russia to Europe). The attack suspended the transportation of oil to Hungary. The Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that "We consider attacks on energy infrastructure of Hungary unacceptable".
- Repairs to the pipeline are underway.
Russia: Magnesium warehouse explodes
🎦 19:51-20:27⏩
A magnesium warehouse blew up in Ulyanovsk. It is not known if this is connected to the war. Magnesium is difficult to extinguish. Jonathan speculates that it could be connected to munitions production.
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Kursk Update: Ukrainian withdrawal confirmed
🎦 20:27-21:45⏩
- Some of the Ukrainian brigades, including the most combat ready have left the Kursk region (source: Forbes).
- Videos are circulating of Russians raising their flags in Sudzha (which acted as the Ukrainian hub in Kursk).
- This would seem to indicate that the Ukrainians have lost Kursk.
- Igor Girkin (Strelkov) is still in prison (he was imprisoned for criticising the Russian war effort). He is still criticising from within prison.
- He describes the situation on the front line as the "same old story", that the Russians have only achieved minor tactical gains. He says that the Ukrainians withdrew from Sudzha without a fight and that Russia are waging war half heartedly.
Ukraine: US and Ukraine agree to ceasefire in principle
🎦 21:45-23:40⏩
- Jonathan talks about the big news of yesterday (11/03/2025). The US and Ukraine have agreed in principle to a full ceasefire (that covers land, sea and air). It is believed that Ukraine made concessions to the Americans in order to get them to agree to this.
- This is significant because the Ukrainians wanted to keep the front line open (probably because they had momentum). It is likely that Ukraine were so desperate for US Intelligence (which has now resumed, along with weapons shipments) that they agreed to the ceasefire.
- Jonathan states that the weapons deliveries are already underway. They are being moved out of Rzhev.
- Maxar have also reportedly restored Ukraine's access to high resolution satellite imagery.
- Tulsi Gabbard has stated that Trump ordered her to give the Ukrainians access to US intelligence. Jonathan believes that the Ukrainians were desperate for this intelligence, which is something that only the US can provide as they have capabilities that other countries do not.
- Jonathan believes that this is why Kursk was lost so quickly. He believes that this means that the Americans (Trump) have blood on their hands for withdrawing support back in 2023-2024 (for 7 months).
- He is very critical of Trump, stating that he (and his administration) have Ukrainian blood on their hands for stopping aid (and that even when he wasn't President he was controlling the actions of Mike Johnson (Speaker of the House) to stop this. He believes that Trump should have provided Ukraine with as much weaponry as possible, ramped up sanctions and then the Russians would be on their knees begging for peace. Instead Trump forced Ukraine to capitulate and agree to a peace deal.
Ukraine: Ceasefire Truce
🎦 23:40-25:32⏩
- The early stages of the ceasefire will be a 30 day truce.
- It is unclear whether the ceasefire will benefit Ukraine, Russia, both or neither. There are also differing opinions on whether Russia will agree to the ceasefire.
- Jonathan highlights that Russia has made battlefield advances but are also being beaten back by the Ukrainians in other areas. This makes it difficult to predict what they will do.
- Any ceasefire would have to take into account Russia's battlefield advances and provide guarantees to Moscow (source: Reuters)
- The Kyiv post reports that new intelligence shows that Russian officials believe that Trump has already agreed to the Kremlin's peace plan (which involves the removal of Zelensky)
- It is unclear whether this new ceasefire agreement negates this.
Ukraine Ceasefire: US and Russia - Positions and Negotiators
🎦 25:32-27:13⏩
- US and Ukrainian officials will begin discussing the details of the ceasefire next week (technical experts will be involved).
- Russia will also need to agree to the ceasefire.
- It is interesting that Keith Kellogg has been sidelined during the negotiations. Many believe it is because he was too supportive of Ukraine.
- Jonathan believes that it is telling that Kellogg has been sidelined as there is no evidence that the US administration is aligned with Ukraine.
- A Politico article confirms that Kellogg has been sidelined and that he has been overshadowed by key figures like Rubio, Waltz and Wyckoff. He was noticeably absent from the talks in Saudi Arabia. A Trump administration official said that his position was "very much in question".
- Jonathan remarks that this is a shame for Ukraine (even though he has not agreed with Kellogg recently as he believes that he has been compromised - caught between wanting to support Ukraine but also under pressure from the administration. He is also part of the America First Institute and so will follow Trump's ideology).
Ukraine Ceasefire: Russia's Position and Demands
🎦 27:13-31:16⏩
- Putin has stated that it is unlikely that Kyiv will accept the 30 day ceasefire (source: Reuters).
- Any ceasefire would have to take into account Russia's battlefield advances. Jonathan notes that whilst the Russians are advancing in some areas, they are not advancing in others where they are being pushed back by the Ukrainians (e.g Prokrovsk, Cheshiv Yar, Synkivka, Kupyansk, Tyurtsk).
- Jonathan reiterates how confused the front line is.
- The Kyiv Post reports that Russia want the US to agree to the following:
- A termination of Western Military support
- Recognition of Russian controlled territories (all of the territories they control - currently only Crimea is fully under Russian control)
- Reinstatement of Russian language and culture (and the church)
- A return to the Istanbul Protocol Draft Agreement (this would be massively to the benefit of Russia and there is no way that Ukraine would sign up to this)
- Jonathan questions whether any ceasefire is contingent on these demands (which Ukraine will not agree to) or whether these will be points discussed after the ceasefire is agreed.
Ukraine Ceasefire: What was not discussed in Jeddah
🎦 31:16-32:17⏩
- New elections or Zelensky's resignation were not discussed in Jeddah.
- Jonathan believes that this is good news (and shows a softening from the US towards Ukraine).
Nate Vance (JD Vance's cousin speaks out against JD Vance)
🎦 32:17-35:36⏩
- Jonathan talks about an interview given by Nate Vance (JD Vance's cousin) to Le Figaro and CNN (interesting that he is able to speak to CNN given he is speaking out against JD Vance and the MAGA channels are unlikely to interview him).
- Nate Vance is a former US Marine who fought in Ukraine for nearly 3 years. He is calling out JD Vance for his stance on the war (and for downplaying the importance of supporting Ukraine). He states that JD Vance has no understanding of what is happening on the battlefield, and how the Russians operate. He has first hand experience of Russian aggression and how the Russians treat their own soldiers as expendable (he states that they even execute retreating troops). He believes that any ceasefire would simply allow the Russians to regroup and come back stronger.
- Nate Vance has said that JD Vance is naive if he thinks that disengaging from Ukraine will not have long term consequences for the US and its allies.
- Nate Vance tried to contact JD Vance after he took office but received no response.
- He was appalled by JD Vance's behaviour when he publicly scolded Zelensky in the Oval Office, highlighting how this humiliated a key ally, proving how little JD Vance understands about global affairs.
- He believes that JD Vance's stance on Ukraine is based purely on political posturing.
- A clip from the interview is played. Nate Vance states very clearly that the Russians shot their own retreating troops, "I have personally witnessed them shooting their own troops on enough occasions that it wasn't an isolated incident" - highlighting how ruthless they are.
- Jonathan remarks how this should serve as a warning about Russia. He states that the Russians should not be trusted and that they cannot be allies of the US.
Wrap up
🎦 35:36-36:28⏩
- Jonathan thanks everyone for watching and asks that they support the NAFO fundraiser (with Rick and Roman Trokhymets) by donating to provide trucks and a minivan to units in Ukraine.
- He reminds viewers about the live stream with Edward Hunter-Christie (talking geopolitics) and the interview he will be doing with Zarina Zabriskie who recently wrote an article for Medium about how Donald Trump has been compromised by the Kremlin.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I was unable to understand this phrase at timestamp 17:13 "the Druzeburg Friendship Hotel". Is this the correct spelling? Is it possible to clarify?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is quite a complex task with a lot of steps. There's also a lot of potential for things to go wrong!
It's important that I don't deviate from the instructions and follow the structure as that's the whole point of this (to automate a process that will be used elsewhere).
It's also very important that I use the correct closing tags as otherwise this will break the process.
Step 1 - Identify the title, date and part
This should be very straightforward as the format of the title is standard. I need to be very careful to follow the date format and closing tags.
Step 2 - Identify and number the topics (topic titles)
This looks to be the most challenging step. Jonathan covers a lot of subjects and I have to resist the urge to combine subjects/be too general. I have to ensure the titles are specific/quantified/granular.
Step 3 - Add the timestamps for each of the topics
This is mechanical but I must pay attention to the detail as it's easy to make a mistake with the timestamps. It's very important I use the correct format for timestamps MM:SS or HH:MM:SS. Once I've finished the timestamps, these should cover the entirety of the video. I must ensure I use the correct closing tag.
Step 4 - Write a summary for each of the topics
This is where I can add value as Jonathan's videos can be rambling, contain repetition and go off on tangents. His insights are important but I need to be accurate and cannot add my own thoughts/opinions/analysis. I need to ensure I convey his humour/personality as this is important to his viewers and is a big part of why they enjoy his content. I must ensure I use the correct closing tag.
Step 5 - Choose a quote from the video
This should be relatively simple although there will be many quotes to choose from! I need to ensure the quote makes sense out of context and that it is fairly concise.
Step 6 - Detail anything from the transcript I did not understand
This is very important as I do not want to make assumptions.
