Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News

"In simple words, we cannot get tired of this situation because if we do, we die. And if the world gets tired, they will simply let us die."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:22⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the second Ukraine War Update video of the day - 9th December 2023.

Return to top⤴️

Germany provides more military aid to Ukraine

🎦 00:22-00:49⏩

Germany continues to provide military aid to Ukraine. The latest package includes 155mm shells, a Lunar NG reconnaissance drone, 10 Vector reconnaissance drones, 70 MGW automatic grenade launchers, 6 patrol vehicles, 8 Zetros trucks and 100,000 first aid kits. Jonathan notes how frequently Germany provides these updates.

Return to top⤴️

Top donors of Military Aid to Ukraine

🎦 00:49-02:27⏩

Jonathan refers to a BBC article about an interview with Olena Zelenska and highlights the top donor countries in terms of military aid provided to Ukraine. The US remains the largest donor at $46.3bn, although support has slowed considerably. Germany has overtaken the UK ($18.1bn vs $6.9bn). Jonathan notes how significant the contributions of Norway ($3.8bn) and Denmark ($3.7bn) are given their size. He is surprised by the lack of public information about what France is providing given their contributions in other areas.

Return to top⤴️

Lunar NG Drone System

🎦 02:27-03:49⏩

The recently announced German aid package includes the Lunar NG drone system. Costing tens of millions of euros, this is a significant contribution and comprises a ground control station, several UAVs, a launch catapult, net equipment to catch the drones when they land and maintenance equipment. Mounted on an HX truck, the drones have a flight time of over 12 hours and an optional data link range of up to 300km. Jonathan compares their capabilities to the Bayraktar TB2 drones - good cameras, range and long flight times.

Return to top⤴️

German drone manufacturer Quantum Systems to establish R&D and production facilities in Ukraine

🎦 03:49-05:20⏩

Quantum Systems, a German drone manufacturer, will establish an R&D centre and production facilities in Ukraine. Facilitated through the "Deer City Portal", a special economic zone for IT and tech companies, this follows the supply of Quantum Systems drones (likely the Vector drones) to Ukraine throughout 2022. Jonathan highlights how this is another example of Ukraine's defence industry growing through partnerships with other nations.

Return to top⤴️

Bulgarian parliament approves the transfer of 100 BTRs to Ukraine

🎦 05:20-06:14⏩

The Bulgarian Parliament has voted (161 to 55) to overturn President Radev's veto of the transfer of 100 BTRs (armoured personnel carriers) to Ukraine. Jonathan welcomes the decision and notes the significance of Bulgaria's support in supplying Soviet-era equipment and munitions since the beginning of the war.

Return to top⤴️

Ukraine and Sweden discuss the possible transfer of Gripen fighter jets

🎦 06:14-08:06⏩

Ukraine's Defence Minister, Rustem Umerov, has discussed the transfer of Gripen fighter jets with the Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces. However, Sweden will only agree if they join NATO. Jürgen Neldit, a pro-Ukrainian source, confirms that whilst negotiations are ongoing, this is a long-term prospect given Turkey and Hungary's stance on Sweden's NATO accession. This is a significant challenge for Ukraine as their hopes are contingent on Sweden joining NATO. Meanwhile, Erdogan's coalition ally has stated that Turkey will only support Sweden's accession once Palestine is recognised as an independent state, Israel agrees to pay compensation and a path is open to Netanyahu's trial in The Hague. Jonathan believes this is unlikely to happen, further complicating the situation.

Return to top⤴️

France and Ukraine discuss bilateral cooperation

🎦 08:06-08:45⏩

Umerov recently met with advisors to French President Emmanuel Macron in Kyiv, thanking France for their support and discussing bilateral cooperation, particularly the development of Ukraine's defence industry. This comes after Jonathan's previous remarks about the lack of transparency surrounding France's aid contributions.

Return to top⤴️

Japan and Ukraine discuss air defence systems

🎦 08:45-09:09⏩

Ukraine's ambassador to Japan has revealed ongoing discussions about the transfer of air defence systems. Jonathan acknowledges Japan's historical military approach, but suggests their changing military strategy may lead to more overt support for Ukraine.

Return to top⤴️

Ukroboronprom and Milrem Robotics to jointly produce defence vehicles

🎦 09:09-10:05⏩

Ukroboronprom, Ukraine's state-owned defence conglomerate, has partnered with Estonian company Milrem Robotics to co-produce multi-domain defence vehicles. This will further boost Ukraine's indigenous defence production capabilities.

Return to top⤴️

Finland donates portable stoves to Ukraine

🎦 10:05-10:46⏩

Finland has contributed to the production of hundreds of portable stoves ("Brzuziki"), which will be sent to Ukrainian border guards. In a humorous aside, Jonathan acknowledges the difficulty of pronouncing Ukrainian words.

Return to top⤴️

Australia: Could F-18s and coal be sent to Ukraine?

🎦 10:46-13:25⏩

Jonathan discusses an article in the Australian Financial Review suggesting Ukraine might acquire Australia's retired F-18 Hornets (not Super Hornets) following the lapse of a deal to transfer them to a US company. Ukraine has requested coal from Australia, having received 70,000 tonnes last year. With the F-18 deal dead, 14 of the 41 aircraft could be made airworthy within 4-6 months. However, their remaining lifespan is only two years and would require training, making this a less viable option compared to F-16s.

Return to top⤴️

Russian military bloggers highlight issues with North Korean ammunition

🎦 13:25-14:39⏩

Russian military bloggers have reported significant quality issues with North Korean ammunition supplied to Russia. Uneven production, charge composition deviations and inconsistent powder quality are impacting accuracy and damaging Russian artillery barrels. Further reports suggest the FAB-500 and KAB-500 bombs used by Russia are inaccurate and frequently causing friendly fire incidents.

Return to top⤴️

YouTube comment - Challenges of maintaining artillery shell production in peacetime

🎦 14:39-17:35⏩

Jonathan reads a comment from "Robert Nosnikdo" about the challenges of artillery shell production. Citing the example of a recently opened Australian factory (joint venture between Rheinmetall and NIOA) with a capacity of 1m shells/year, it highlights the costs involved: AU$90m for the facility (3 years to build) plus AU$50m for ancillaries, and this only produces the metal components. Jonathan acknowledges the dilemmas faced by governments - balancing investment in defence manufacturing capacity against other priorities like healthcare, particularly in peacetime.

Return to top⤴️

Putin to seek fifth term as Russian President

🎦 17:35-18:23⏩

Unsurprisingly, Putin will seek a fifth term as President in Russia's upcoming sham election. Having been in power since 1999, his victory is a foregone conclusion, highlighting the lack of democratic integrity within Russia.

Return to top⤴️

Growing concerns in Europe about potential US withdrawal from NATO if Trump is re-elected

🎦 18:23-19:43⏩

Citing a New York Times article by Philip O'Brien, Jonathan discusses growing fears among European nations that the US might withdraw from NATO if Trump is re-elected. Despite being a possibility, Europe has been slow to develop contingency plans. Jonathan cites Philip O'Brien and Mykola Belyaevsky's Ukraine-Russia War Talk podcast, which argues that the US might reduce support for Ukraine even sooner if Congress refuses to release further funding. Jonathan highlights O'Brien's earlier article in The Atlantic, where he argues that the foundations of the post-WWII world are crumbling and that Europe is ill-prepared.

Return to top⤴️

Geopolitical instability: Venezuela and China

🎦 19:43-21:37⏩

Jonathan expresses his concern over emerging geopolitical developments, particularly Venezuela's intention to annex oil-rich parts of Guyana and China's stance on Taiwan. He questions whether Russia, seeking to circumvent oil sanctions, is behind Venezuela's move. He recommends Jake Brough's recent video analysing Putin's recent visits to the UAE and Saudi Arabia to understand the complexities of the oil situation. He connects these global events, suggesting that Russia and China may be exploiting the current geopolitical instability and reduced global focus on Ukraine.

Return to top⤴️

The importance of the US's global role

🎦 21:37-22:57⏩

Jonathan shares his concerns about the potential consequences of the US adopting an isolationist stance, arguing that this would have significant implications for the existing global order. The current US-led hegemony, based on democracy and free markets, faces a challenge from autocratic regimes in China and Russia. He suggests that Russia is actively working to destabilise the EU by supporting far-right parties, further undermining democratic principles.

Return to top⤴️

Poland and Hungary's stance on Ukraine and Russia

🎦 22:57-24:05⏩

Jonathan highlights the importance of Donald Tusk, who is expected to lead the next Polish government, openly criticizing Viktor Orbán's government in Hungary for its pro-Russian stance. He believes that Hungary should face consequences, such as potential expulsion from the EU, if it continues to act as a "Russian puppet."

Return to top⤴️

Oil price falls below $75 per barrel

🎦 24:05-25:26⏩

In some positive news, the price of Brent crude oil has fallen below $75 per barrel for the first time since July. While still above the $60 cap imposed by Western nations, it will impact Russia's revenue. Jonathan suggests that the US, a non-OPEC member, may be influencing prices by increasing supply to counter OPEC's attempts to raise prices. He highlights a comment from Tim White suggesting that as oil prices drop, countries have less incentive to circumvent sanctions.

Return to top⤴️

International Olympic Committee allows Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete under a neutral flag

🎦 25:26-27:05⏩

Jonathan criticises the International Olympic Committee's (IOC) decision to allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete under a neutral flag in the 2024 Paris Olympics. He expresses his disappointment, arguing that the world seems to be losing its resolve to hold Russia accountable. He contrasts this with a Czech magazine's powerful AI-generated images depicting athletes in "neutral" uniforms.

Return to top⤴️

World Athletics continues to ban athletes from Russia and Belarus

🎦 27:05-27:20⏩

In contrast to the IOC, World Athletics, led by Sebastian Coe, will continue to ban athletes from Russia and Belarus from competing in the 2024 Olympics.

Return to top⤴️

Author Maria Popova warns of Russia's ultimate goals

🎦 27:20-28:42⏩

Author and professor Maria Popova warns that Russia's ultimate goals are to regain control of half of Europe and undermine US hegemony. She argues that recent signs of wavering Western support embolden Russian propaganda, who speculate on future targets such as the Baltics and Moldova. She stresses the importance of continued, resolute Western support for Ukraine to counter this narrative.

Return to top⤴️

Ukraine makes progress on EU accession

🎦 28:42-29:19⏩

Zelenskyy has signed three laws required for Ukraine's accession to the EU.

Return to top⤴️

Hungary's position on Ukraine's EU accession

🎦 29:19-30:15⏩

Despite Viktor Orbán's insistence that Hungary will block Ukraine's EU accession, the EU is preparing to unlock €10 billion in frozen funds for Hungary. This suggests a potential bargaining chip to secure Orbán's cooperation.

Return to top⤴️

Olena Zelenska interviewed by the BBC

🎦 30:15-31:09⏩

The BBC will air an interview with Olena Zelenska, Ukraine's First Lady. In a preview clip, she pleads for continued global support, stating that if the world grows tired of helping Ukraine, they will die.

Return to top⤴️

Jonathan discusses the declining global interest in the war in Ukraine

🎦 31:09-33:41⏩

Jonathan expresses concern about the declining public interest in the war, noting a drop in viewership on his channel. He acknowledges that domestic issues, such as the US border situation, take priority for many. In response to criticism from some American viewers, he clarifies that, as a British citizen, the war in Ukraine has a greater impact on his life than events on the US southern border. He reiterates his belief that the war in Ukraine, alongside climate change, is the most important issue facing the world today, both objectively and subjectively.

Return to top⤴️

Wrap Up

🎦 33:41-33:50⏩

Jonathan signs off, reminding viewers of the gravity of the situation in Ukraine and the moral imperative to support Ukraine.

Return to top⤴️