Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:46⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the second part of his 28th August 2024 Ukraine War Update. It's also his twins' 14th birthday and the house is full of teenagers! He apologises for the noise, explaining that it's his partner who thought it was a good idea.
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US provides Ukraine with exclusive F-16 Electronic Warfare system
🎦 00:46-04:45⏩
Jonathan reveals that the US has provided Ukraine with a unique Electronic Warfare system for its F-16 fighter jets. This system, so advanced that even other NATO members don't have it, is reported to make Ukrainian F-16s invisible to Russian radar. Key highlights:
- US personnel, in partnership with Danish and Norwegian counterparts, have successfully reprogrammed EW systems for Ukrainian F-16s.
- The system is designed to give Ukraine an advantage in the ongoing electronic warfare battle with Russia, countering jamming and spoofing tactics.
- The reprogramming was a significant challenge, described as "uncharted policy."
- This initiative follows the US announcement of F-16 deliveries to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands.
- A dedicated team of US experts and engineers, supported by data from Denmark and Norway, undertook the complex reprogramming.
- The collaboration has resulted in improved reprogramming processes for all involved, with Ukraine now recognized as an official foreign military sales case for these EW systems.
- The US unit will continue to adapt and refine the reprogramming based on real-time combat feedback from Ukraine.
- While not explicitly named, the EW system is believed to be either the ALQ-131, ALQ-184, or the Danish AN/ALQ-162, typically found on Danish and Dutch F-16s.
- These systems are designed to detect and disrupt enemy radar systems, effectively acting as a radar jammer and making it difficult for Russian forces to target Ukrainian aircraft.
- The arrival of these enhanced EW systems coincides with Ukraine's urgent need for more advanced air defense capabilities against Russia's superior air power.
- Ukraine is expected to receive a limited number of F-16s, potentially up to 10, by the end of the year.
Ukraine requests MiG fighter jets and missile interception support from Poland
🎦 04:45-05:59⏩
Jonathan discusses Zelensky's request for Poland to transfer its MiG fighter jets to Ukraine and to aid in intercepting Russian missiles. Poland responded that it's willing to provide the MiGs, but only after receiving new F-35s from the US, which are expected in 2026. The Polish Defence Minister emphasised that their priority is to ensure their own security. Jonathan highlights the ongoing negotiations and acknowledges that the older MiGs are still valuable assets for Ukraine, given their existing capabilities and recent losses.
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EU considers training Ukrainian soldiers within Ukraine
🎦 05:59-06:54⏩
The EU is considering Ukraine's request to train its soldiers within its borders. While some EU nations are concerned about escalating the conflict with Russia, Jonathan notes that this isn't entirely new. He suggests a "mission creep" approach: smaller nations like the Baltic states and Sweden could initiate training, followed gradually by larger nations like France and Britain. He believes Russia wouldn't react as strongly to this gradual approach.
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UK supports Ukraine's use of Storm Shadow missiles against targets in Russia
🎦 06:54-08:40⏩
Jonathan delves into the Storm Shadow missile issue, highlighting the UK's stance. Despite US resistance, the UK, including the Labour leader, appears to fully back Ukraine's use of these missiles against targets within Russia. The Telegraph reported that Downing Street supports their use but is hesitant to publicly declare this due to potential friction with the US. Jonathan speculates that this reticence might be influenced by the US's influence over the MoD. This corroborates earlier statements by Keir Starmer to Zelensky, seemingly confirming the UK's approval. Jonathan, echoing John Ridge's perspective, sees the US stance as "blackmail," where continued aid for Ukraine seems contingent upon not striking Russia with Storm Shadow missiles.
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General Breedlove's warning: Ukraine's potential loss due to inadequate support
🎦 08:40-09:18⏩
Jonathan highlights General Breedlove's concerning statement: "If we keep doing what we're doing, Ukraine will eventually lose." Breedlove criticises the West, particularly the US, for not providing Ukraine with the necessary resources to achieve victory. He points to Ukraine's recent ground offensive, hampered by insufficient support. Jonathan expresses hope for a shift in the US's approach, perhaps during Biden's "lame duck" period or under a potential Harris administration. He believes a change in leadership could pave the way for a more proactive strategy in aiding Ukraine.
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Ukraine's diverse unmanned systems: A logistical challenge for Russia
🎦 09:18-10:37⏩
Jonathan discusses the impressive diversity of unmanned systems used by Ukraine at the front, numbering over 170. These include aerial drones, sea drones and unmanned ground vehicles, supplied by a mix of charities, private entities and international actors. He contrasts this with Russia's centralised system, which struggles to meet the evolving needs of its forces, particularly drone operators. Jonathan believes this adaptability gives Ukraine a significant edge, allowing them to stay ahead of Russian countermeasures.
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Palatine Missile Drone: A game changer in the making?
🎦 10:37-12:46⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukraine's new Palatine missile drone, a cost-effective jet-powered weapon system. He notes its alleged role in a recent ammunition depot detonation in Vornesh. While still costing $1 million each, it's cheaper than comparable systems. Ukrainian military efforts to collaborate with private companies aim to further reduce production costs, potentially to under $1 million. Jonathan believes this could lead to a significant increase in production and deployment. Two more Russian oil depots were destroyed. While unconfirmed, there are rumours of an explosion at a power plant in Kazan. Jonathan speculates that this could indicate a shift in Ukraine's strategy, targeting Russia's infrastructure to impact its economy and population. He predicts potential escalation from Russia, including nuclear threats, but also notes that increased use of the Palatine drone could drastically alter the war's trajectory.
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Russia's strategic dilemma and the potential for escalation
🎦 12:46-14:05⏩
Jonathan analyses Russia's strategic predicament. He suggests that Russia faces three bleak options: full national mobilisation (risking economic collapse), continuing the current strategy and absorbing heavy losses, or withdrawing from the war, potentially leading to regime change. He doubts Putin's ability to survive politically if he pulls out of Ukraine, believing him to be fully committed. Jonathan anticipates a Russian escalation, likely involving tactical nuclear weapons as a last resort. However, he argues that such a move would cross a global red line, potentially uniting the world in providing even greater support to Ukraine.
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Latvia's unique military aid: Confiscated vehicles for Ukraine
🎦 14:05-14:38⏩
Jonathan lightens the mood with a quirky piece of news: Latvia will be sending 20 more vehicles to Ukraine, all confiscated from drunk drivers. He believes this is a unique initiative among the Baltic states and praises their continued support for Ukraine.
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Spain's contribution: Training over 5,000 Ukrainian soldiers
🎦 14:38-14:57⏩
Jonathan highlights Spain's contribution to the war effort. Since Autumn 2022, Spain has trained over 5,000 Ukrainian soldiers, a significant commitment involving around 2,500 Spanish instructors.
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Supply and communication issues plague Russian forces in border regions
🎦 14:57-16:18⏩
Jonathan discusses reports that, despite claims by the Russian Ministry of Defence, Russian forces in the border regions of Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk are facing significant equipment and communication problems. An assistant to the Kursk governor has voiced frustration about inadequate supplies, particularly drones, which are not functioning properly. This official believes the military leadership is intentionally weakening troops by withholding resources. He criticises the reliance on volunteers and informal channels to procure equipment, which exacerbates logistical challenges. He believes this dishonesty endangers soldiers' lives and undermines the war effort. Jonathan sees this as a recurring theme of inadequate procurement processes within the Russian army, especially in crucial areas under Ukrainian attack.
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North Korea's alleged artillery shell shipments to Russia: A worrying development
🎦 16:18-18:52⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to North Korea's alleged supply of artillery shells to Russia. South Korean intelligence estimates as many as 6 million shells might have been shipped via cargo vessels, potentially through Vladivostok. While this figure is based on the maximum capacity of observed shipping containers and might include other munitions, it underscores the significant scale of potential North Korean support. Jonathan acknowledges the uncertain quality of North Korean ammunition but stresses that it enables Russia to maintain a high volume of artillery fire. He questions the international response to these shipments, including from South Korea and the UN. While South Korea might be less concerned about shells being directed away from them, their primary concern lies in the potential technological or military equipment that North Korea might receive in return. Jonathan suggests that South Korea might increase its support for Ukraine only if it sees evidence of such a transfer.
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Wrap up
🎦 18:52-19:11⏩
Jonathan wraps up, apologising again for the background noise of teenagers celebrating his twins' birthday. He jokes about his newfound hatred for children (before clarifying that he does, in fact, love them).
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"If we keep doing what we're doing, Ukraine will eventually lose"
