Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231020a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"The dead Ukrainians have families who will never forgive us for what we did. Therefore it is necessary to destroy Ukraine and to persuade children with propaganda."
Hello Team!
Jonathan starts the video by mentioning the high Russian casualty figures reported by the Ukrainian General Staff for the previous day, with the usual caveats. The figures are the highest for any individual day in several categories, with 1,380 personnel losses, 55 tanks, 120 armoured personnel vehicles, and 29 artillery systems lost. Even if these numbers were reduced by 50%, they would still be significant losses for the Russians.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian losses
- Andrew Perpetua's map, which relies on video feeds from various sources, shows a 4:1 ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses. However, this is likely an underestimate as many losses are not captured on video.
- Radu Hosu, a Romanian strategist, attributes the high Russian losses to the "Avdiivka effect" and the Russian commanders' lack of care for their soldiers. He predicts this could lead to sporadic mutiny among Russian ranks.
- The Ukrainian General Staff confirms that over 60 units of Russian equipment have been destroyed in Krasnohorivka near Avdiivka alone.
Russian attack helicopters and drones
- Russian KA-52 attack helicopters are being used from afar to avoid Ukrainian air defences, reducing their effectiveness.
- Jonathan notes there has been less footage of Russian attack helicopters in recent weeks, suggesting they are being used more cautiously.
- Ukrainian drones with a 17km range are becoming the "new artillery", able to accurately target Russian equipment far behind the front lines.
Strikes and explosions
- There were no reported Russian distance strikes overnight, but several explosions were heard in occupied Melitopol near a Russian military base at the captured airfield.
- The Russians conducted airstrikes and shelling in the Kherson region, possibly in response to concerns about Ukrainian incursions.
- Trent Telenko suggests the recent Russian strikes on Zaporizhzhia and other areas were retaliation for Ukraine's successful ATACMS strikes on Russian airfields.
- Satellite imagery shows the damage to helicopters at the Berdyansk airfield following the Ukrainian ATACMS strikes, with at least 6 irreparably damaged.
Other news
- Jonathan shares a quote from Russian propaganda justifying the destruction of Ukraine and the use of propaganda on children due to the anger of Ukrainian families who have lost loved ones. He strongly condemns this circular and sickening logic.
- The Ukrainian parliament voted to ban the Ukrainian Orthodox Church over alleged links to Russia, which the church denies. The law would ban religious organisations affiliated with states that carry out armed aggression against Ukraine. The church argues the law is unconstitutional and portrays its clergy as Russian agents.
Wrap up
Jonathan encourages viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video. He will have more updates coming soon.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
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