Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hello Team | 00:00- 00:49 |
| 2 | Northeastern Sector Update | 00:49 - 02:05 |
| 3 | Bakhmut Update: Russian Gains and Topographical Challenges | 02:05 - 07:00 |
| 4 | Avdiivka Update: Ukrainian Stabilisation | 07:00- 07:52 |
| 5 | Mariinka, Krasnohorivka and Novomokhailivka Update: Russian Pressure and Advancements | 07:52 - 10:14 |
| 6 | Velyka Novosilka and Robotyne Update: Significant Russian Gains and Ukrainian Setbacks | 10:14 - 12:06 |
| 7 | Kinburn Spit Update: Russian Struggles and Ukrainian Resilience | 12:06 - 13:43 |
| 8 | Front Line Summary and Additional Insights | 13:43 - 14:17 |
| 9 | Kinburn Spit: Continued Russian Losses and Ukrainian Counter-Attack in Tonenke | 14:17 - 15:17 |
| 10 | Ukrainian Frontline Stabilisation and Counter-Offensive Preparations | 15:17 - 17:05 |
| 11 | Wrap Up | 17:05 - 17:32 |
"The enemy's irreversible and sanitary losses in this area amounted to more than 60 occupants."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00- 00:49
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics frontline update. He announces that the first part of his Ukraine video diary is now available for members and thanks them for their feedback. He explains that he won't be delving into the ISW report in this video but will discuss it the following day.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeastern Sector Update
🎦 00:49 - 02:05
Jonathan begins by analysing the Northeastern sector, reporting no significant changes on the frontline. He notes a discrepancy between yesterday's map from Surience Maps, showing Russian retreat in the northern parts of Kivka, and a tweet mentioning new advances southeast of the area. He speculates that this might be due to overzealous mapping or a misinterpretation of evidence. However, he confirms the Russian retreat, citing a tweet as evidence. Jonathan also points out a flash news report stating that Ukrainian forces are attempting to reach the heights near Tabayevka, where Russians are advancing, with the goal of regaining control of the settlement. He expresses scepticism about claims that Russia has concentrated over 100,000 troops in the Lanky direction, suggesting that such claims have been circulating for a year without materialising into any significant offensive action.
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Bakhmut Update: Russian Gains and Topographical Challenges
🎦 02:05 - 07:00
Jonathan goes on to discuss the Bakhmut sector, highlighting Russian gains in Ivanovska and potential advancements in the Bodonivka area, based on Surience Maps. He references Andrew Perpetua's live stream from the previous night, where the challenging topography around Ivanovska was discussed. Jonathan explains, using maps, how the Russians are advancing along high ground, which, if captured, would give them a significant tactical advantage over Ukrainian forces in Ivanovska. He notes concerns about Chasivyar's increasing vulnerability if Russia continues to make gains in the north. Jonathan then addresses reports of a failed Russian attack on Klishchivka, suggesting that such attacks might intensify if Russia takes control of Ivanovska. This, he explains, would allow Russian forces to capture the entire area west of the water channel and make it extremely difficult for Ukraine to hold Klishchivka. He further reports on Russian advancements northwest of Bakhmut, confirming their control over the street to Tereshkovo and areas near Ivanovska, along with renewed advances in Bodonivka.
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Avdiivka Update: Ukrainian Stabilisation
🎦 07:00- 07:52
Moving onto the Avdiivka sector, Jonathan notes that there have been no changes to the frontline. He believes this supports reports of Ukrainian forces stabilising the area with the arrival of reserves and improved artillery ammunition supplies.
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Mariinka, Krasnohorivka and Novomokhailivka Update: Russian Pressure and Advancements
🎦 07:52 - 10:14
Jonathan reports Russian gains in the Krasnohorivka area, south of Mariinka, citing Surience Maps. He identifies this as an area of concern, with Russia seemingly increasing pressure on both Krasnohorivka and Novomykhailivka. Jonathan then examines Russian gains in centralna street in southern Krasnohorivka, as well as small advances in the streets of Shevchenka and Parizkoy Kommuni. He highlights the strategic importance of the railway southeast of the town, where Russian troops have restarted their advance. Jonathan then focuses on Novomokhailivka, confirming Russian gains in the town centre, including the raising of a Russian flag. He points out the difficulties faced by Ukrainian forces in this area.
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Velyka Novosilka and Robotyne Update: Significant Russian Gains and Ukrainian Setbacks
🎦 10:14 - 12:06
In the Velyka Novosilka sector, Jonathan reports no changes, but notes significant Russian gains in the Vuhledar area of the Robotyne sector. He explains, using maps from Surience Maps, how Russia has made significant advances northwest of Vuhledar, taking control of the remaining Suravikin line. Jonathan emphasises the significance of these gains, as they have pushed Ukrainian forces back across the main defensive line, including a tank ditch and dragon's teeth. While acknowledging this as a setback for Ukraine, he downplays the intrinsic value of the Robotyne sector and views the Ukrainian defence as a strategic effort to slow down the Russian advance towards Orikhiv.
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Kinburn Spit Update: Russian Struggles and Ukrainian Resilience
🎦 12:06 - 13:43
Despite the lack of mapping data, Jonathan addresses the situation on the Kinburn Spit, citing anecdotal evidence to suggest that Russian forces are facing difficulties. He quotes a Russian soldier complaining about heavy losses, poor conditions, and the Ukrainian army's resilience. Jonathan commends the Ukrainian forces for holding the bridgehead and inflicting significant losses on the Russians. He acknowledges the challenging conditions for both sides but believes that Russia has not effectively dislodged Ukrainian troops.
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Front Line Summary and Additional Insights
🎦 13:43 - 14:17
Jonathan provides a summary of the frontline, describing it as a "mixed bag." He expresses concern over the situations in Evenivka, Novomykhailivka, and Krasnohorivka, where Russia appears to be making progress. He announces that he'll share additional insights gathered while away from his desk, working in reverse order along the frontline.
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Kinburn Spit: Continued Russian Losses and Ukrainian Counter-Attack in Tonenke
🎦 14:17 - 15:17
Beginning with the Kinburn Spit, Jonathan reports on three failed Russian assault attempts on the left bank of the Dnipro River, citing Ukrainian sources claiming Russian losses exceeding 60 troops. He then shares potentially significant news, if verified, of Ukrainian forces regaining control of Tonenke in a localised counter-attack, stating that heavy fighting continues in the area. Jonathan acknowledges that these are Ukrainian claims and should be treated with caution, but notes that if true, it signifies a shift in momentum, as Russia had previously achieved considerable success in pushing back Ukrainian forces in the area.
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Ukrainian Frontline Stabilisation and Counter-Offensive Preparations
🎦 15:17 - 17:05
Finally, Jonathan discusses comments from the Commander of the Ground Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, who stated that Ukraine will stabilise the frontline and begin preparations for counter-offensive operations. While acknowledging the Ukrainian military's efforts, Jonathan expresses doubts about their capacity to launch a counter-offensive at this stage, given the resources required. He suggests that 2025 might be a more realistic timeframe for a significant Ukrainian push, dependent on receiving sufficient military aid.
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Wrap Up
🎦 17:05 - 17:32
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking viewers for watching and encouraging them to like, subscribe, and share. He reminds them about his upcoming Ukraine video diary, which has been well-received by members.
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